Investing Thread

[Hards Alumni]

One of my long-term clients was a very large trucking firm, and they were convinced it was going to be here 10 years ago. Turns out that true self-driving, unlike Elon's roll-the-dice-you-might-die, is far more difficult and complex than anyone expected.

Honestly think that we might be overthinking the problem entirely.  Having semis being able to sit in the right hand lane on an interstate and clip along at 55mph should be pretty straight forward.  I think the real problem lies on the city driving.  Why not have the autonomous portion just be the long haul stuff for now, and have humans handle the shorter distance last few miles of complicated driving? 

This sort of thing would make the most sense to start in the Southwest where there is plenty of room and plenty of road.  At least as a proof of concept.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

On tariffs:

"You know, we have a lot of other countries that make a lot of money with us. All I have to do is turn off the spigot, which I'm allowed to do. And you would have a lot of the elite countries—I don't want to mention names—but you would have a lot of elite countries that were no longer elite, that lose their share, and we would not lose, whether it's 50 or 100. You have certain countries that make $50 billion every [unintelligible]. We lose $50 billion. I don't need that. For the most part, I don't need these. I can turn it off, and I have the absolute right, according to the tariff decision, which was a terrible decision by the Supreme Court. But basically, they said you can get it otherwise. But it's tougher.

But they also said I don't have to trade with countries, so they're willing to stop a tariff—maybe a small one—but they're willing. Just think of it; they tell you to stop tariffing even small numbers, but you have the right to stop trading with a country. Think of that; it's ridiculous. It's a terrible decision for our country. Do you know if they would have written one clause: Any money paid does not have to be paid. I took in hundreds of billions of dollars. We have to write it back, giving it back to people that were enemies of ours. You would have thought they would have done something about that. Give back hundreds of billions of dollars. I have other forms of tariffs I can have. I just got a tariff from Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham, first time in 50 years. But, I think, I think it's a shame. I think what the Supreme Court did is an absolute crying shame."


Good thing we didn't elect a black lady as President.

Nothing to see here, either:

The president had been asked about whether Mitch McConnell should resign from the Senate because of his health issues. Trump responded by indicating that videos of McConnell struggling were a "disappointment to a lot of Republicans," before noting that "Sleepy Joe gave pardons to everybody." He then exploded, questioning why they were asking about the White House renovations so much, and griping that they hadn't asked him about Venezuela. Time pointed out that they talked about Venezuela at length earlier in the interview.

"I don't understand. I'm sitting here. I've done all this stuff," Trump said. "I took the White House and made it beautiful again."

[JWags85]

Can't wait for this prediction to go down in scoop history like Heisey's Apple call.

I like to pride myself on having pretty good general reads on big tech trends and developments over the last 10-15 years, but while not expressed on Scoop, I was VERY vocal with friends and peers at work that Facebook buying Instagram was absurd and a ridiculous overvaluation back in 2012.  That aged as well as Heisey and Apple 

We might be there if it hadn't become a culture war talking point.

Nah, I think that is overstated.  I know you're a big EV guy, and thats fine, but there are plenty of reasonable people who still prefer ICE and not for political or culture reasons. Range, charge time vs fill up, tire wear, etc...  My cousin is as leftie as they come (probably would be all-in DSA if he was 10-15 years younger) is a big car/truck guy and will likely never have an EV vehicle, or at least not for quite some time.  Funny enough his wife drives a hybrid because it was a concession between them.  The vast majority of people aren't chronically online and don't make buying decisions based on that.

Like all technology, EV will become the dominant player when its unquestionably cheaper (not just gas vs charger), more convenient, and more efficient than traditional ICE vehicles.  That will supercede old habits and preferences, government lobbies, and other headwinds.  Its the same story for green/clean energy as well. 

For EVs themselves, I actually don't think that its THAT far in the future as battery technology continues to improve by leaps and bounds, but we're not there yet and that's got far more to do with EVs not being the large majority than any cultural war angle.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Jobs +29,000
Jobs revisions -60,000

Greatest economy in the history of the world per Goose

[MU82]

Dementia's a b!tch.

[jesmu84]

I like to pride myself on having pretty good general reads on big tech trends and developments over the last 10-15 years, but while not expressed on Scoop, I was VERY vocal with friends and peers at work that Facebook buying Instagram was absurd and a ridiculous overvaluation back in 2012.  That aged as well as Heisey and Apple 

Nah, I think that is overstated.  I know you're a big EV guy, and thats fine, but there are plenty of reasonable people who still prefer ICE and not for political or culture reasons. Range, charge time vs fill up, tire wear, etc...  My cousin is as leftie as they come (probably would be all-in DSA if he was 10-15 years younger) is a big car/truck guy and will likely never have an EV vehicle, or at least not for quite some time.  Funny enough his wife drives a hybrid because it was a concession between them.  The vast majority of people aren't chronically online and don't make buying decisions based on that.

Like all technology, EV will become the dominant player when its unquestionably cheaper (not just gas vs charger), more convenient, and more efficient than traditional ICE vehicles.  That will supercede old habits and preferences, government lobbies, and other headwinds.  Its the same story for green/clean energy as well. 

For EVs themselves, I actually don't think that its THAT far in the future as battery technology continues to improve by leaps and bounds, but we're not there yet and that's got far more to do with EVs not being the large majority than any cultural war angle.

I'd say there are 2 big hurdles to mass EV consumer adoption right now:

1. Home charging. If you don't own a home/residence where you can charge in your parking spot, it's not a good purchase. The only caveat is if you can charge at work

2. Lack of understanding/education. This is mostly an older population issue, but I still run into it amongst younger population. There is so much misinformation and disinformation out there.

Range and charge times are irrelevant unless you road trip regularly or have significant commute distances. Also, see #1.

Tire wear is not really an issue if you're purchasing appropriate tires for the weight of the vehicle. No different than a truck or large SUV.

I also believe it is unquestionably more efficient right now to own/operate an EV vs ICE. Cheaper likely as well, depending on initial purchase price.

OT - lastly, if green energy/EVs were subsidized to the same degree as fossil fuels/ICE, I think we'd see a rapid changeover. Alternatively, eliminating subsidies. Either way, level the playing field and let the consumers/communities decide when the prices are transparent and in full view

[Skatastrophy]

Range and charge times are irrelevant unless you road trip regularly or have significant commute distances.

Can't handwave this. Most people make emotional decisions, and this kicks them straight in their lack of critical thinking, causing anxiety. I think this is a huge hurdle for people. 

Even just the workflow of charging your car being an unknown for people is a monster hurdle. People like sticking with what they're familiar with.people hate feeling dumb or wrong.

If they were very cheap then people would start handwaving this stuff and figure it out, but it's not cheap. 

[jesmu84]

Can't handwave this. Most people make emotional decisions, and this kicks them straight in their lack of critical thinking, causing anxiety. I think this is a huge hurdle for people.

Even just the workflow of charging your car being an unknown for people is a monster hurdle. People like sticking with what they're familiar with.people hate feeling dumb or wrong.

If they were very cheap then people would start handwaving this stuff and figure it out, but it's not cheap.

I agree with your second sentence.

And it coincides with my #2 above.

Most every human plugs in their cellphone at night. They rarely thing twice about this process.

Owning an EV is the same.

[MU82]

More fun within the Idiocracy ...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who had declared himself "the house" in a standoff with government bond investors, admitted after bond yields continued to rise that "the house doesn't always win."