[Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Numbers Recap

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Villanova Numbers Recap

Written by: Henry Sugar

It was really nice to see how well Marquette responded last night.  Facing a hot Villanova team and a seven point halftime deficit, MU jumped right out of the gate in the second half and held on for the win.

Four Factors Review




In looking at the numbers, this is a game that was actually decided on the offensive end.  It's somewhat surprising, especially given that the turnover rate by Villanova (31.2%) was probably a deciding factor.  However, both teams posted above average offensive efficiencies, as well as above average effective Field Goal percentages (eFG%).  Considering that both teams are in the bottom third of NCAA teams for Free Throw Rate, it's nice that the referees decided to let them play a little bit.

When we look at the turnover rates, Marquette had a significant advantage.  As we've covered, Marquette does a better job of both protecting the ball and forcing turnovers, and this came into play last night.  Villanova turned the ball over roughly one out of every three possessions.  Finally, Marquette lost (decidedly) on the Offensive Rebounding factor for the first time in five games.

Offensive Rebounding Percentages




We continue to be concerned with the current trend of Offensive Rebounding Percentage for Marquette.  This was a strength for Marquette during non-conference play, and suffered greatly during the first half of conference play. Marquette had started to perform better since the Cincinnati game and was well correlated with improved performance.  However, the trends for offensive rebounding percentage are heading in the wrong direction.

Offensive and Defensive Rating Trends




On the other hand, the Offensive and Defensive Ratings for Marquette continue to get better.  Clearly, the last two conference games will be the true test, but MU is improving at the end of February.  It is so nice to write that...

Individual Player Ratings




We can see yet again what a good performance Dominic James had.  James had an Offensive Rating (ORtg) better than team average, and a Defensive Rating (DRtg) better than team average.  His net points added essentially counts for the entire margin of victory.  Acker had a great game, which was statistically his best ever in a Marquette uniform.  Lazar had another quietly effective and net positive game for the team.

McNeal had a marginal game overall, with an ORtg worse than team average and a DRtg worse than team average too.  Despite a contribution of 17.2 points, his net impact was close to zero.  In addition, McNeal's usage was at 26%, which is much higher than his season usage of 19.5%.  Players get less efficient the higher their usage, so hopefully McNeal will be able to rein it in a bit for the next game and be more productive.  Let's not be too harsh, however, because he has been a superstud during our five game winning streak.




After mostly mediocre performances through much of conference play, the net points trends for James and McNeal are heading up, up, up.  A streaking Marquette team = streaking performances by James and McNeal.  Hopefully, team and individual performances will continue on this same path this Saturday against Georgetown.  There's a lot of time between now and then, so stay tuned for more information here at Cracked Sidewalks.

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Finally, for more detailed stats breakdown of the game last night, we recommend checking out Villanova By The Numbers.  There's a very thorough review of all the stats from last night, and it's well worth checking out.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2008/02/villanova-numbers-recap.html

[spiral97]

henry - I gotta say, you are an AWESOME addition to an already incredible crackedsidewalks team.. this stuff is great!  Keep it up!