[Paint Touches] Should you be worried about MU's offense?

[PaintTouches]

Saw way too much angst over the weekend so drafted a little something.

https://painttouches.com/2023/12/04/should-you-be-worried-about-marquettes-offense/

Current unguarded spot up PPPs, compared to 2023 full season numbers.

[tower912]

One of the goals of the offense is the open 3 pt shot.  It is accomplishing that.   When they start falling, everything syncs.

[Spirit Of James]

Rebounding will always be the biggest concern in the Shaka system.  From CJ Moore:

"Marquette's biggest weakness is on the boards. The Golden Eagles are allowing an offensive rebound on one of every three misses, and their defensive rebounding rate ranks 293rd in college hoops. Only five high-majors rank lower. Wisconsin took advantage on Saturday, grabbing 15 offensive rebounds and outscoring Marquette 18-2 in second-chance points. Marquette's offense was also in a funk, struggling with Wisconsin's sagging defense, but the big picture concern for this team is rebounding. Marquette has now been outscored 38-6 in second-chance points in its two losses."

[jfp61]

Our four man, and backup point guard miss alot of shots. And are destined to be inconsistent because of their percentages in and around the rim and in the painted area. They probably could both play a little less in favor of other players. (if those other players would stop fouling).

[IrwinFletcher]

There is often discussions about a Coach's offensive system and how effective it is or can be.  But a system is designed to get good shots for the players and it is up to the players to make those shots.

Clearly, the former is happening, we just need the latter to make things go better.

[Dr. Blackheart]

These are Sy level shooting percents. One would hope there will be regression to the mean. Still a major issue.

Agree, these are mostly open shots in this efficient offense, often unguarded because the defense is focused defending the paint where MU is a top shooting team.

However, my eyes went to the shot map. Of the two point shots not dunks, 66 came from the left and 32 from the right. Very left handed tendency with Tyler, Kam and Chase and obviously predictable.

Of the two point shots not in the paint, there are just 15 mid rangers. The so called worst shot in basketball and a C priority in Nevada's offense.

That said, one can see why top defenses are focused on gap containment on the foul line extended (picket fence) to stop this offense on dribble penetration to the hoop. Whether it's Wisconsin's pack line, MSU's match-up zone, Miss State's hybrid man-zone, that is their focal point, in particular to the left. It's a Death Valley in a 4 or 5 out offense as you need to cross that transit line.

How to beat it? One way is to employ more triangle offense concepts. MU ran a sweet Princeton offense back door play with Oso in the 2nd from a high post. They also iso Oso from the wing for a dribble drive occasionally. And the Joplin crab walk dribble from the wide post that is too predictable and too slow (and he never passes out of it). V Cuts like Jimmy used to do with a kick out.

Simply put, more post action in Death Valley, and that includes threatening "dreaded" mid range game as MU has mostly ignored. Think the Jordan Bulls where Michael developed a post up game, Longley was effective in the high post with shooting, passes and screening off the foul line extended to create dribble penetration lanes on the seams. The Joker makes a living here.

It doesn't have to be a dreaded shot but you need to threaten this area against this defense. A successful offense can still prioritize the A & B shots, but it cannot ignore Area C, especially against March teams IMO.

[DoctorV]

Nice post Dr B, well said.

The staff have to hit the film room and game plan a bit of an alternate strategy against these types of defenses, or the open 3s really need to fall.

Marquette thrives on spacing, creative actions, and figuring out ways to attack open lanes.
When you hunker down and pack it in, clogging up all those lanes, it'll inevitably lead to a lot of one on one and attempted 3s, which have both obviously been a problem so far.

Coach Shaka and Nevada have to cook something up, because in the immediate future we might see more of these replica defenses that just dare us to shoot from distance.