Confidence Wins Games

[brewcity77]

This is true. No one should take this game as proof that we've turned the corner on turnovers. Just like no one should dismiss the defense based on how we performed against 5 top 15 offenses.

You and I saw different games. While there were some "weak close outs" there were a lot less than past games (this is also partially due to quality of opponent as good offenses are better at getting open shots). We certainly didn't switch on every screen, I actually commented to a friend that we were switching less last night.

We allowed 10 unguarded threes against Georgetown. That's the most the Hoyas have been allowed in 5 games if conference play. Had they shot to their season average from three on those shots, they would've won. I find it hard to believe it was "a lot less" when it was a season high for the opponent.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We allowed 10 unguarded threes against Georgetown. That's the most the Hoyas have been allowed in 5 games if conference play. Had they shot to their season average from three on those shots, they would've won. I find it hard to believe it was "a lot less" when it was a season high for the opponent.

And this is why stats are better than the eye test, though to be fair I didn't say anything about unguarded threes and I feel like 10 is less than what we've been giving up in the last few games. What site are you getting the unguarded three data from? Does it tell you which threes were unguarded?

[vogue65]

I'm just as big a Marquette fan as you. The only difference is I don't think Wojo can give the program any sustained success based on his past six seasons as a sample size. You do and that's ok.

I'm no less of a fan because I can acknowledge Marquette was lucky to beat a really bad team.

Just wondering, what are our statistics on the number of games won on luck?
How many out of a hundred games where a team is down by 16, 18, or twenty are won by the team that is behind?
Like I thought, we only have the statistics we have, that make our point.
So, therefore, it must have been luck because I  say so and we don't have statistics.
We could always make some up.  However, that's another subject and not allowed here.

[Galway Eagle]

Just wondering, what are our statistics on the number of games won on luck?
How many out of a hundred games where a team is down by 16, 18, or twenty are won by the team that is behind?
Like I thought, we only have the statistics we have, that make our point.
So, therefore, it must have been luck because I  say so and we don't have statistics.
We could always make some up.  However, that's another subject and not allowed here.

Actually there is a formula for calculating luck. I don't pay for it but somebody here does I'm sure.

[BrewCity83]

We allowed 10 unguarded threes against Georgetown. That's the most the Hoyas have been allowed in 5 games if conference play. Had they shot to their season average from three on those shots, they would've won. I find it hard to believe it was "a lot less" when it was a season high for the opponent.

OK, fine.  But if MU had also shot to their season average on threes, they would've won easily. 

[Markusquette]

Haven't you heard? Other teams lose games for MU. Marquette doesn't do anything to win them.

[brewcity77]

OK, fine.  But if MU had also shot to their season average on threes, they would've won easily.

On unguarded threes, we shot above our average.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Maybe this will add context to change in defense and personnel from previous seasons.

At the rim, 29.4% of all our opponents' shots occur there this season, and they are hitting at 51.6%. Last season, at the rim shots comprised 36.7% of total shots by our opponents, hitting at a 54.2% clip. So, we are protecting the paint and we are defending better there.

When you have Garcia, Theo, Lewis protecting the paint, opponents see that and shoot more threes (and try to foul out these guys). This season, 41.4% of opponents' shots are threes versus 34.9% last season. Opponents are also shooting better (33.3%  vs. 32.2%).

This is why we now harp on turnovers (quick, advantaged looks), slow rotations (unguarded), lack of steals (pressure on the passers) and how MU handles picks (Theo on perimeter shooters).

Some of this is pick your poison, mix up switches. Some of it is controllable. In years past, our lane defense was el matador and it led to easy buckets or a scrambling defense as they allowed dribble penetration and kick outs. This year has a much better containment fence but teams are racing down court to launch.

As I said previously, I like these improvements but MU is not all the way there. This is also why I liked Wojo willing to mix up some junk defense on GU as it caused confusion and turnovers.

[BM1090]

On unguarded threes, we shot above our average.

Unguarded spot up threes*

[Lennys Tap]

Just wondering, what are our statistics on the number of games won on luck?

According to Pomeroy, we are #256th in luck. So pretty unlucky this year, so far.

[MUDPT]

Just wondering, what are our statistics on the number of games won on luck?
How many out of a hundred games where a team is down by 16, 18, or twenty are won by the team that is behind?
Like I thought, we only have the statistics we have, that make our point.
So, therefore, it must have been luck because I  say so and we don't have statistics.
We could always make some up.  However, that's another subject and not allowed here.

This is the 2nd most unexpected win of the Wojo era, according to T-Rank.  74-72 was the only one that was more unlikely.

[OffTheGlass]

Haven't you heard? Other teams lose games for MU. Marquette doesn't do anything to win them.

NOW THAT IS FUNNY! BUT IN FAIRNESS, IT GOES TO SHOW YOU THAT THERE ARE OTHER TEAMS THAT BEAT THEMSELVES, AND NOT JUST
MARQUETTE.

Marquette success is based on taking care of the ball, pass the ball with guys getting into passing lanes, and playing respectable defense.
If they can just take care of the basketball and not beat themselves with unforced TO's, that just might be enough to finish in the top half of the Big East.

[vogue65]

don't engage BLM or MU82. Clearly they're lonely and misguided, with lots of free-time. MU fans however, so redeemable, I suppose.😀

What are your criteria for putting someone on ignore?
A few years MUScoop was a cesspool of snarky put downs and useless arguments.
It is much more civil today allowing for difference of opinion.
Is don't engage what comes before ignore?