[Paint Touches] 2020 Minute Projections

[PaintTouches]

Tweaked them a bit from this summer but feels like I always hedge the middle guys too much. We shall see in a few months, I guess.

And obviously missing Jayce for an extended period changes things a bit, but too soon to bring out the contingency projection just yet.

https://painttouches.com/2019/11/05/marquette-2020-minute-projections/

[The Sultan]

Not much to outright disagree with here.

I think Markus and Sacar might be one or two less, with Bailey and Elliott one or two more.  But I think you got the order right.

[jsglow]

Going to agree with Sultan.  It's really hard to sustain 35 when you factor in non-con.  Like tonight for example.  Pencil Markus for 25 if the game gets out of hand and he's not going for the record.  Stuff like that brings the season average down.

[PaintTouches]

Yea, I do think 35 feels high for Markus, I just was/am in the Markus as Carsen Edwards frame, and he averaged 35 so I just went for it.

I was a minute low on both Markus and Sam last year, too, so that jaded my vision. But I think both of you are probably right.

[jsglow]

Remember that Markus woulda been lower if Chartouny could have played better.  Wojo simply had to have him on the floor.  But I'm splitting hairs.  Let's hope he doesn't have to play 35.  That means somebody else can score.

[SaveOD238]

Yea, I do think 35 feels high for Markus, I just was/am in the Markus as Carsen Edwards frame, and he averaged 35 so I just went for it.

I was a minute low on both Markus and Sam last year, too, so that jaded my vision. But I think both of you are probably right.

I gotta imagine that Bailey will eat into some of the 62 minutes vacated by the Hausers' departure.  There's no way he goes from 14 last year to only 15 this year.  I'd put Bailey more around 20, and shorten the bench minutes.  Greg and Symir's minutes will suffer because the three lead guards will dominate the two or three guard spots.

[PaintTouches]

I gotta imagine that Bailey will eat into some of the 62 minutes vacated by the Hausers' departure.  There's no way he goes from 14 last year to only 15 this year.  I'd put Bailey more around 20, and shorten the bench minutes.  Greg and Symir's minutes will suffer because the three lead guards will dominate the two or three guard spots.

I can definitely see Brendan taking a large portion of Cain's minutes, TBH, I just don't feel confident about either, so split the baby. Out of all the rotation players, I do think Bailey is the most likely to crack 25+ minutes a game. And as for Greg and the 3 lead guards, I do think we'll see a few minutes a half of Sacar at the 4 (which then allows Greg or Symir to play with the 3 leads).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think Cain may end up with less minutes then anyone currently expects

[Galway Eagle]

I think Cain may end up with less minutes then anyone currently expects

Sortve agree honestly wonder if he would've benefited from a red shirt last year or would benefit doing it this year.

[The Sultan]

I don't see how a redshirt would help him significantly.  We will see how the season goes, but it looks like he's going to be behind Bailey with a number of forwards coming in. 

[StillWarriors]

I gotta imagine that Bailey will eat into some of the 62 minutes vacated by the Hausers' departure.  There's no way he goes from 14 last year to only 15 this year.  I'd put Bailey more around 20, and shorten the bench minutes.  Greg and Symir's minutes will suffer because the three lead guards will dominate the two or three guard spots.

I agree with this. I suspect (hope) Bailey becomes one of those guys that is hard to take off the court because he can defend (even when he gets beat off the dribble he seems to have an uncanny knack for recovering and blocking a shot from behind) and is a low turnover guy. If he shoots like we all hope he can, he becomes even harder to get off the court. Last year he got a decent amount of minutes despite a quick trigger and low shooting percentage much of the year based upon the D and low turnovers.

It's been so long it's hard to remember real clearly, but Greg seemed to have some glue guy attributes freshman year that earned him some key minutes despite the limitations due to his thumb. Hopefully with time and a healthier ankle he will force some difficult decisions for the coaching staff.

[muguru]

I think Jayce's minutes are too low when he gets back healthy. Can see him pushing 20/game

[Silkk the Shaka]

I see it as a tiered system

Markus / Sacar / McEwen to split 90 mpg (~30 apiece)
Theo / Greg / Ed / Brendan to split 80 mpg based on matchups, foul trouble, hot hand, etc. (~20 apiece)
Jayce / Jamal / Symir to split 30 (~10 apiece)