[Cracked Sidewalks] Marquette's Path to a 2-Seed

[rocket surgeon]

Weak weak weak pac 10- any slip up by Gonzaga opens the door if we take care of business on our end

[SoCalEagle]

Michigan is going down.

Go Hawkeyes!!!

[Lennys Tap]

Interesting and good stuff, Brew. One quibble: why are #10 VTech, #13 UW, #16 LSU and #17 Nevada not in competition with #18 MU for a high seed? One observation: I think (like Lazar) it will be extremely difficult for MU to reach the 2 line. Our conference is weak so there is little or no margin for error.

[rocket surgeon]

Michigan got smoked!!  Talk about peeking at the wrong time...unless they can use all this to motivate, but it is also exposing weaknesses

[Herman Cain]

I am delighted to just be in the tournament. Any good seeding we get is frosting on the cake. I think if we finish out the season strong and do well in the BET we will get rewarded with a 3. Would like to see us soundly thrash The Johnnies , which offsets that loss . Also would like to see at a minimum get a split with Nova and if we could get to the BET final and beat them we could even make a case for the 2 seeding.

There are still a lot of Big East games left and we need to see how that plays out for the rest of the league. A couple teams in the group of 8 teams are going to play well and that will help our seeding cause.

[MU82]

Michigan got smoked!!  Talk about peeking at the wrong time...unless they can use all this to motivate, but it is also exposing weaknesses

When I was 13, I had a chance to see a naked girl but I peeked at the wrong time.

[jsglow]

I see that others have jumped on it.  Michigan was December's news.  Brew's 'best team' is fading.  They looked horrible against Bucky and have now lost again.  Now's there's plenty of time to recover but....

[WarriorFan]

This team needs to learn how to play for seeding.  Margin of victory is important as is winning everything they're supposed to win.  It might not be such a big thing this year because fans are just happy they're not on the bubble but next year they should be playing for a one seed.

[brewcity77]

Interesting and good stuff, Brew. One quibble: why are #10 VTech, #13 UW, #16 LSU and #17 Nevada not in competition with #18 MU for a high seed? One observation: I think (like Lazar) it will be extremely difficult for MU to reach the 2 line. Our conference is weak so there is little or no margin for error.

All good questions, and all teams I briefly considered.

For Virginia Tech & LSU, they simply didn't do enough in the non-conference. Virginia Tech's entire resume so far boils down to the win over Purdue. LSU is similar, they just haven't beat anyone to justify inclusion on the 2-line. If either ended up winning out, they could get there, but I'm assuming teams finish 2 games over Pomeroy and neither of them have any real likelihood of picking up the required results without vastly overperforming.

Wisconsin is similar, but moreso because of some of the losses they picked up. Minnesota and Western Kentucky will drag their resume down, and they would have to finish 3+ games over Pomeroy projections to realistically have a shot. For them, it's mainly the quantity of losses and that they don't have a ton of great pickup games left. They probably need to win out or lose at most 1 game.

As far as Nevada...I think their ceiling if they win out is probably a 4-seed. Maybe a 3 if other teams fall off, but there's just no quality to their resume. If they win every game, they will have 1 Quadrant 1 victory. Sure, they're 8-0 in Q2, but they don't have any more Q2 games. And they have a worse loss than anyone here. I can't see a team that's 21-1 in Q3/4 games with only 1 Q1 win getting any serious consideration for a 2-seed.

If you look at the mid and low majors that have earned high seeds, they have played people. Gonzaga in 2017 played Florida, Iowa State, Arizona, and Tennessee away from home. In 2015, the Zags got a 2 playing Georgia, St. John's, Arizona, SMU, and UCLA. Even the Wichita State team that got a 1-seed played Tennessee, BYU, & St. Louis, all NCAA teams. Nevada has one win over an Arizona State team that will be at best a bubble team. They just don't have the resume. They'll remain highly ranked, but lost any hope at a 2/3 seed in my opinion when they lost at New Mexico.

[brewcity77]

I see that others have jumped on it.  Michigan was December's news.  Brew's 'best team' is fading.  They looked horrible against Bucky and have now lost again.  Now's there's plenty of time to recover but....

I'd guess they'll be a 2 on my board next week, and had dropped from the top overall seed awhile ago. Through December 1, they were unassailable as the #1 team in the country. Undefeated with an average scoring margin of 21.4 ppg, no wins less than 17 points, and victories over 4 high-majors (3 of whom are listed here as in the mix for a 2-seed). The November sheen has worn off and their last four will be really interesting. Two against Michigan State and a trip to Maryland.

As far as Marquette...really I think their future depends on who they are. Is this 16-1 stretch legit? Will they handle trips to DePaul, Providence, and Seton Hall as well as they did trips to Georgetown, Xavier, and Butler? Will they continue to hold serve at Fiserv Forum, where they are 14-0? If the answer to those questions is yes, they are a 2-seed. If they are the team that Pomeroy thinks they are, and the team that I pointed out as being lucky to have the record they do, then they will probably drop 2-3 they shouldn't (on paper) and end up somewhere in the 3-5 range.

On the upside, it does look that barring a total collapse, a 5-seed is about the worst we can expect, and I think most Scoopers would've been happy with that in October, even if it would be a bit of a disappointment now.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

As far as Nevada...I think their ceiling if they win out is probably a 4-seed. Maybe a 3 if other teams fall off, but there's just no quality to their resume. If they win every game, they will have 1 Quadrant 1 victory. Sure, they're 8-0 in Q2, but they don't have any more Q2 games. And they have a worse loss than anyone here. I can't see a team that's 21-1 in Q3/4 games with only 1 Q1 win getting any serious consideration for a 2-seed.

If you look at the mid and low majors that have earned high seeds, they have played people. Gonzaga in 2017 played Florida, Iowa State, Arizona, and Tennessee away from home. In 2015, the Zags got a 2 playing Georgia, St. John's, Arizona, SMU, and UCLA. Even the Wichita State team that got a 1-seed played Tennessee, BYU, & St. Louis, all NCAA teams. Nevada has one win over an Arizona State team that will be at best a bubble team. They just don't have the resume. They'll remain highly ranked, but lost any hope at a 2/3 seed in my opinion when they lost at New Mexico.

Nevada is such an interesting case. When is the last time a preseason top 10 team played such a weak schedule? I'm not sure it has happened in the modern era. If the committee goes on pure resume They probably are a 6 seed or lower if they win out. If they go by the mindset of "they are a preseason top 10 team who lost one game all season" they are a 1 seed. Other than us, the team I'm most interested in seeing placed in the top 16 is Nevada.

[HowardsWorld]

Nevada is such an interesting case. When is the last time a preseason top 10 team played such a weak schedule? I'm not sure it has happened in the modern era. If the committee goes on pure resume They probably are a 6 seed or lower if they win out. If they go by the mindset of "they are a preseason top 10 team who lost one game all season" they are a 1 seed. Other than us, the team I'm most interested in seeing placed in the top 16 is Nevada.

It defintely is an interesting case. I often look at Gonzaga as a measuring stick for what to expect from other mid majors who crack the top 10. Gonzaga is a good team no doubt but the fact that they get to beat up on WCC teams every year for 18 games makes it hard to judge who they really are. Yes they beat Duke but lost to North Carolina and Tennessee. They are a good team but in a different conference even the Pac-12 they probably are undefeated in conference.

On to Nevada. They have realistically one ok win vs Arizona State. Again in a conference like the big East, Big 10 or ACC they are probably above .500 but not the record they have. I think for the most part there resume will have holes. Not sure how many Q1 wins they have maybe 1? St. Joe's in 2004 is the only time I have seen a team get a 1 seed that really didn't earn it. They got in strictly on their undefeated record not the teams they beat.

If I had to bet  on Nevada I would say the highest they will get is a 3 seed if they win out and probably get matched up with the best 14 seed and then a 6 seed who should have been given a 4 or 5 and they dont make it out of the first weekend.

[brewcity77]

Nevada is such an interesting case. When is the last time a preseason top 10 team played such a weak schedule? I'm not sure it has happened in the modern era. If the committee goes on pure resume They probably are a 6 seed or lower if they win out. If they go by the mindset of "they are a preseason top 10 team who lost one game all season" they are a 1 seed. Other than us, the team I'm most interested in seeing placed in the top 16 is Nevada.

They remind me a ton of that Wichita State team that got a 7-seed in 2015, but with an even worse schedule. That team went 28-4 but was top-10 in Pomeroy going in. Like Nevada, they had some wins that looked okay on paper in the preseason and good computer numbers, but ultimately there was no substance to the resume. I know it's hard to get games when you are a team like Nevada, but you can't expect the committee to judge you favorably when they don't have anything to judge you on.