[Cracked Sidewalks] Presbyterian Preview

[brewcity77]

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/08/presbyterian-preview.html

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Presbyterian Blue Hose
November 17, fiserv.forum

Coach: Dustin Kerns (11-21 at Presbyterian)
3-Year RPI Average: 326.3
3-Year kenpom Average: 337.3
2018-19 T-Rank Projection: 289
Projected Starters: PG Davon Bell (5'10" Sr), SG Romeo Crouch (6'3" So), SF J.C. Younger (6'4" Jr), PF Francois Lewis (6'9" Sr), C Armel TeTe (6'9" Jr)

The Blue Hose lost leading scorer Reggie Dillard but should have the rest of their starting lineup back with PG Davon Bell getting a waiver after only playing 7 games his junior year. The big question will be if Lewis & TeTe can play together. When Lewis was found academically ineligible, TeTe stepped in & took the majority of the minutes in the middle.

The good news is that before Lewis was suspended, Presbyterian was a decent 5-8 in D1 games. That includes a win over NCAA-bound UNC-Greensboro, a halftime lead at NC State, & being tied at Virginia Tech with under 9 minutes to play. Then Lewis went out & the Blue Hose finished the season 3-13. Coach Kerns will hope that a full season of Lewis along with a more experienced roster will help them be more competitive. Lewis is a high-usage, high-efficiency player that is a beast on the boards.

The consensus is Presbyterian is a bad team. They were poor on both ends this past year, haven't been a top-325 kenpom team in 7 years, & have never been a top-250 kenpom team. And yet...I think they could be pretty good. The first thing that gives me hope is Lewis, who has a bit of a 2012 Kyle O'Quinn type feel to him. He's got size & conference POY upside. And while their numbers weren't pretty last year, they were competitive with some good teams. They gave NC State & Virginia Tech hell, beat a good Greensboro team, & even after Lewis was injured took NCAA-bound Radford to overtime on the road. Having Bell & Lewis back is huge for this team & while they will certainly have more skeptics than believers, I think Presbyterian will have their best ever kenpom team & have a good chance to make some noise in the Big South.

Stylistically, they are going to play slow. The Blue Hose were 3-9 in games of 65 or more possessions, and the best of those 3 wins was #340 Longwood. Against Virginia Tech, they focused on getting the shot clock under 10 then looking for the best shot. They get the bulk of their points beyond the arc & do have some shooters, so expect them to slow the pace & hope to equalize the talent disparity with the long ball. Lewis really is the key to their team. Once he went down, they allowed 1.15 or worse defensive efficiency in over 60% of their remaining games and went 0-10 in those games.

Marquette Connection: This game will be a homecoming of sorts for Montenia Lewis. The Presbyterian guard played his high school ball less than 40 miles due south of the fiserv.forum at Kenosha Bradford. Lewis led the Red Devils with 12.9 ppg as a senior.

[brewcity77]

A few reasons I'm bullish on this Presbyterian team...

They started last season poorly, going 0-5 in D1 games. But in their next 8 games they improved significantly. They went 5-3, including a win over NCAA-bound UNC-Greensboro & playing very tough against Buzz's Va Tech team. The 3 losses in that stretch came to two NCAA Tournament-bound teams & a Liberty team that lost in the conference championship game before making it to the semifinals of the CIT. In that 8-game stretch, they allowed 1.05 ppg on defense.

Then Francois Lewis was declared ineligible. They went 3-13 the rest of the way and allowed 1.13 ppg, including going 0-10 in games when they allowed 1.15 ppg or worse. The return of Lewis will be a big boost to that defense. Further, Lewis led the team in offensive efficiency, defensive rebounding rate, usage, and 3PFG%.

Losing Reggie Dillard is a double-edged sword. He led them in scoring, but was their highest usage player after Lewis' departure despite having the lowest offensive efficiency of anyone in their top-5 of shot percentage taken. Further, bringing Bell back is a big gain. He was top-25 in the country in assist rate and is a legitimate difference maker.

I really think this team compares favorably to Norfolk State in 2012. That team had been sub-275 kenpom for over a decade and posted by far their best season. Why? Largely because of Kyle O'Quinn and Pendarvis Williams. But there were other indicators. They had a 1-point loss at Virginia the year before, a 5-point loss at St. Joe's, and a 9-point loss at Iona. They were competitive with good teams and had a returning point guard and big man that were proven. They also said goodbye to a high-usage, low-efficiency guard from the year before. That is what we see with this Presbyterian team. They have the two-man combo, they were really close to some big wins last year, and like NSU are getting rid of a ball-dominant, low-efficiency scorer (Dillard for Presbyterian, Rob Hampton for NSU).

This team was starting to figure it out under new coach Dustin Kerns. Then their best player was ruled ineligible for the season and it fell apart. Imagine if we had lost Sam, Markus, or Andrew after the Xavier game. Would we have beat Georgetown or Providence on the road? Would we have even gotten it together enough for a NIT bid? I doubt it.

That's what happened to them. They lost their best offensive and defensive player and went into a tailspin. With the return of Bell, Torvik has them 7th in their league, but I think it's easily conceivable they could finish in the top-half & be in the mix for that conference tournament title when all is said and done.

[Nukem2]

Who knows?  Still doubt that it will be any sort of a quality win under the new NET metric.  Blue Hose play at MU, UCLA, Dayton and Butler and have an assortment of other weak NC games.  They will need to really make noise in their conference to help MU any re the NET.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Who knows?  Still doubt that it will be any sort of a quality win under the new NET metric.  Blue Hose play at MU, UCLA, Dayton and Butler and have an assortment of other weak NC games.  They will need to really make noise in their conference to help MU any re the NET.

Well we need to wait for the formula to be sure, but it seems like the NET is meant to actually remove the concept of "good" buy games and "bad" buy games, or at least lessen it. It seems like as long as you beat your cupcakes by 10 points or more it shouldn't harm your NET the way it harmed RPI.