Is MU's tourney resume worse than last season?

[4everwarriors]

Gotta wait 5 years ta judge, aina?

[jesmu84]

10-8 with a loss to the 10th place team (likely St. John's) would currently put us at 19-12 with 49 RPI and 29 SOS. If you find me a high major team that was left out with that resume than I will believe you.

9-9 before the BET currently gives us an RPI of 51 and an SOS of 26. As I said in my post, a first round BET loss could put this in jeopardy but you're insisting that our resume wouldn't be good before the BET. Again, find me a high major team that has gotten left out with an RPI of 51 and an SOS of 26 and I will believe you.

8-10 would likely get us the 7th seed in the BET. A win against the 10th seed (likely St. John's), would lead to a matchup with the 2 seed (likely Xavier), a win their would result in a matchup with the 3/6 seed, assuming the 3 seed advances (likely Seton Hall) and we lose that would currently put our RPI at 53 and SOS at 19. Again, find me a high major team that has gotten left out with an RPI of 53 and an SOS of 19 and I will believe you. And this doesn't even include the possibility that we could beat the 3 seed and then lose in the championship (RPI 44, SOS 12 assuming Villanova makes the championship).

The Big East is very strong this season. Our non-conference schedule was very strong this season and that is a huge boost to our computer numbers.

Oh, and regarding the bolded. Our current RPI is 51 and SOS is 34. Since you are so insistent that beating Georgia was more important than beating VCU I decided to test your theory. I switched Georgia to a win, VCU to a loss, dropped the Wichita State/LSU games and substituted in a win against Cal and a loss against Michigan. Our numbers changed to RPI 57 SOS 53. Even if we beat Michigan our numbers would be RPI 44 SOS 53, a worse resume. If we had played LSU that team that was "supposed" to be in the 5th place game the numbers are even worse. It wasn't about getting to lose to Wichita State. It was about not losing to a resume killer like VCU and having to play an even bigger resume killer in Cal.

[Ws against VCU/LSU with Ls against WSU/UGA] is a better outcome than [Ws against UGA/CAL with Ls against VCU/MICH]

Oh man I love this.

[fjm]

10-8 with a loss to the 10th place team (likely St. John's) would currently put us at 19-12 with 49 RPI and 29 SOS. If you find me a high major team that was left out with that resume than I will believe you.

9-9 before the BET currently gives us an RPI of 51 and an SOS of 26. As I said in my post, a first round BET loss could put this in jeopardy but you're insisting that our resume wouldn't be good before the BET. Again, find me a high major team that has gotten left out with an RPI of 51 and an SOS of 26 and I will believe you.

8-10 would likely get us the 7th seed in the BET. A win against the 10th seed (likely St. John's), would lead to a matchup with the 2 seed (likely Xavier), a win their would result in a matchup with the 3/6 seed, assuming the 3 seed advances (likely Seton Hall) and we lose that would currently put our RPI at 53 and SOS at 19. Again, find me a high major team that has gotten left out with an RPI of 53 and an SOS of 19 and I will believe you. And this doesn't even include the possibility that we could beat the 3 seed and then lose in the championship (RPI 44, SOS 12 assuming Villanova makes the championship).

The Big East is very strong this season. Our non-conference schedule was very strong this season and that is a huge boost to our computer numbers.

Oh, and regarding the bolded. Our current RPI is 51 and SOS is 34. Since you are so insistent that beating Georgia was more important than beating VCU I decided to test your theory. I switched Georgia to a win, VCU to a loss, dropped the Wichita State/LSU games and substituted in a win against Cal and a loss against Michigan. Our numbers changed to RPI 57 SOS 53. Even if we beat Michigan our numbers would be RPI 44 SOS 53, a worse resume. If we had played LSU that team that was "supposed" to be in the 5th place game the numbers are even worse. It wasn't about getting to lose to Wichita State. It was about not losing to a resume killer like VCU and having to play an even bigger resume killer in Cal.

[Ws against VCU/LSU with Ls against WSU/UGA] is a better outcome than [Ws against UGA/CAL with Ls against VCU/MICH]

[MU82]

No. Our resume is incomplete.

Ask again in 6 weeks.

[skianth16]

Simple explanation is math(statistics and probabilities to be fair). There are no combinations in which we finish 10-8 AND things like our SoS and RPI can fall below the necessarily level. Anything more than that is a long explanation

Oh, math. Silly me, I thought this was all about grammar.

Great answer.

[brewcity77]

10-8 is only probably in. Its possible that 10-8 could be a 4 or 5 way tie for 3rd or 4th place. If we wind up with the 7th place seed in that group, and lose our first round game (against the 10 seed), we're not in, period.  And even if we don't have the 7 seed, a 6 seed with a first round loss would make for a very uncertain situation.  Its not a lock.

9-9 is probably out--especially with a first round BET loss.  Our RPI won't be good enough.  Contrary to popular believe, losing to Georgia hurt us a lot more that losing to Wichita State could make up.

Are you trying to create a new bar for stupid posts on Scoop? Ners set it pretty high, but you are really, really trying to get over it.

If we go 10-8, we are in. Full stop. Period. Guaranteed. The ONLY ways we don't get in with a 10-8 Big East record is if we refuse the invitation, Al style, or if we end up on probation from the NCAA between now and March 11.

To your 9-9 comments, give it a rest. You clearly don't get the math. Losing to VCU would not have helped us even had we won in the losers bracket, and as we went 2-1 in Maui with a LSU win that looks better and better with age, your position has only become more indefensible. You were wrong then, you are more wrong now. Let it go.

[GooooMarquette]

We got this.

[The Equalizer]

Are you trying to create a new bar for stupid posts on Scoop? Ners set it pretty high, but you are really, really trying to get over it.

If we go 10-8, we are in. Full stop. Period. Guaranteed. The ONLY ways we don't get in with a 10-8 Big East record is if we refuse the invitation, Al style, or if we end up on probation from the NCAA between now and March 11.

St. Johns 2014 was 10-8 and didn't get in. Similar body of work--no signature non-conference wins. 3rd place tie at 10-8. 0-4 against the teams ahead of them in standings, first round loss in the BET.

I look at the body of work, and I see enough similarities that I don't view us as a solid lock if we're in a multi-way tie for 3rd or 4th place, 7th seed in the tournament and first round loss to St. Johns.  Which is very possible the way the standings are shaping up.

And if the only counterargument is we'll have a better RPI than St.Johns, then that's your view. We didn't really have a better body of work, and every other 10-8 team from the Big East in the last four years that got in with a 10-8 record also had some defining win.  Do we have anything on this year's body of work that matches a win over #1 Villanova?

My view is that RPI is one of many things the committee looks at--but they also look at the body of work.  YOu still have to win some games against tournament-worthy competition, and I think we're lacking in that category.  If we have an RPI of 50, no wins against the teams ahead of us in the standings, 6 of our 10 wins are piled up against the worst 3 teams in the league, and a first round tournament loss--well, I think that would give the committee some pause.

I still think we would make it, but I would't bet the mortgage on it, and contrary to repeated belief, it is not unprecedented for the NCAA to leave out teams with a similar body of work.

To your 9-9 comments, give it a rest. You clearly don't get the math. Losing to VCU would not have helped us even had we won in the losers bracket, and as we went 2-1 in Maui with a LSU win that looks better and better with age, your position has only become more indefensible. You were wrong then, you are more wrong now. Let it go.

I'll put this to rest right now: Run the numbers on our projected RPI at RPIWizard.com.

Baseline (Your scenario of beating VCU)
- Add the following wins for the rest of the season
- Project wins: Butler, Providence, @St. Johns, @DePaul, St. Johns @Georgetown (brings us to 10)
- Project losses: Creighton, @Creighton, @Seton Hall (brings us to 8)
- Add a road game against St. Johns in the BET, project a loss

RPI of 50.

My scenario--losing to VCU, followed by 2 wins, and beating Georgia at home:

RPI of 45. 
 
So tell me again who doesn't get the math.  Beating VCU simply wasn't the all-important game you made it out to be. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

St. Johns 2014 was 10-8 and didn't get in. Similar body of work--no signature non-conference wins. 3rd place tie at 10-8. 0-4 against the teams ahead of them in standings, first round loss in the BET.

I look at the body of work, and I see enough similarities that I don't view us as a solid lock if we're in a multi-way tie for 3rd or 4th place, 7th seed in the tournament and first round loss to St. Johns.  Which is very possible the way the standings are shaping up.

And if the only counterargument is we'll have a better RPI than St.Johns, then that's your view. We didn't really have a better body of work, and every other 10-8 team from the Big East in the last four years that got in with a 10-8 record also had some defining win.  Do we have anything on this year's body of work that matches a win over #1 Villanova?

My view is that RPI is one of many things the committee looks at--but they also look at the body of work.  YOu still have to win some games against tournament-worthy competition, and I think we're lacking in that category.  If we have an RPI of 50, no wins against the teams ahead of us in the standings, 6 of our 10 wins are piled up against the worst 3 teams in the league, and a first round tournament loss--well, I think that would give the committee some pause.

I still think we would make it, but I would't bet the mortgage on it, and contrary to repeated belief, it is not unprecedented for the NCAA to leave out teams with a similar body of work.

SJU's RPI in 2014 was 82.  They lost every game game of significant in noncon. Their best noncon win was over a 16-17 (6-12) Georgia Tech team.  Their next best wins were Bucknell, Fordham and San Fransisco.

This is not a good comp.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

St. Johns 2014 was 10-8 and didn't get in. Similar body of work--no signature non-conference wins. 3rd place tie at 10-8. 0-4 against the teams ahead of them in standings, first round loss in the BET.

I look at the body of work, and I see enough similarities that I don't view us as a solid lock if we're in a multi-way tie for 3rd or 4th place, 7th seed in the tournament and first round loss to St. Johns.  Which is very possible the way the standings are shaping up.

And if the only counterargument is we'll have a better RPI than St.Johns, then that's your view. We didn't really have a better body of work, and every other 10-8 team from the Big East in the last four years that got in with a 10-8 record also had some defining win.  Do we have anything on this year's body of work that matches a win over #1 Villanova?

Nice try.

In 2013-2014, the Big East was IMMENSELY weaker than it is this season. That year the Big East only sent 4 teams to the dance, one of them (Providence) only made it because they won the BET. Another (Xavier) had to play in Dayton. The other two (Villanova and Creighton) lost in the round of 32. 10-8 in that Big East is nowhere near 10-8 in this Big East.

St. John's RPI that year was 65, much lower than the 45-50 we project to be if we go 10-8. Their SOS was 50, much lower than the 25-30 we are projecting to be. In addition to that, they had two losses that were much worse than anything we currently have on our resume (Penn State and @DePaul) losing to us also didn't help. Saint John's also went 2-9 against NCAA tournament teams that year with one of the 2 wins being against a team that only made it because they won their conference tournament.

Despite all those significant reasons that 13-14's SJU resume was SO much worse than Marquette's theoretical 10-8 resume this season, they still were a 1 seed in the NIT. Meaning that they were one of the first four teams left out. Possibly would have even made it in with one less bracketbuster. 13-14 Saint John's just goes to show how much of an iron clad lock Marquette is if they go 10-8 this year.

I'll put this to rest right now: Run the numbers on our projected RPI at RPIWizard.com.

Baseline (Your scenario of beating VCU)
- Add the following wins for the rest of the season
- Project wins: Butler, Providence, @St. Johns, @DePaul, St. Johns @Georgetown (brings us to 10)
- Project losses: Creighton, @Creighton, @Seton Hall (brings us to 8)
- Add a road game against St. Johns in the BET, project a loss

RPI of 50.

My scenario--losing to VCU, followed by 2 wins, and beating Georgia at home:

RPI of 45. 
 
So tell me again who doesn't get the math.  Beating VCU simply wasn't the all-important game you made it out to be. 

This was answered earlier in the thread (you may have missed the standing ovation gifs):

Oh, and regarding the bolded. Our current RPI is 51 and SOS is 34. Since you are so insistent that beating Georgia was more important than beating VCU I decided to test your theory. I switched Georgia to a win, VCU to a loss, dropped the Wichita State/LSU games and substituted in a win against Cal and a loss against Michigan. Our numbers changed to RPI 57 SOS 53. Even if we beat Michigan our numbers would be RPI 44 SOS 53, a worse resume. If we had played LSU that team that was "supposed" to be in the 5th place game the numbers are even worse. It wasn't about getting to lose to Wichita State. It was about not losing to a resume killer like VCU and having to play an even bigger resume killer in Cal.

[Ws against VCU/LSU with Ls against WSU/UGA] is a better outcome than [Ws against UGA/CAL with Ls against VCU/MICH]

There is no scenario where losing to VCU is better than beating VCU. And yes, it was more impactful than the UGA game. I did think it was nice trick though when earlier in the post you said "the committee looks at more than just RPI" and then when answering this part of the question you only listed the RPI and left off the significantly weakened SOS. I also liked that you assumed we would beat Michigan when any ranking system at this point would say that Michigan would be the favorite on a neutral court.

So tell me again who doesn't get the math. 

Still you.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

SJU's RPI in 2014 was 82.  They lost every game game of significant in noncon. Their best noncon win was over a 16-17 (6-12) Georgia Tech team.  Their next best wins were Bucknell, Fordham and San Fransisco.

This is not a good comp.

Where did you get your RPI number? The only site I found with historical RPI data was EPSN and they had it at 65 (but they are notorious for getting it wrong). If you have a site with that data I'd love to know it.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Where did you get your RPI number? The only site I found with historical RPI data was EPSN and they had it at 65 (but they are notorious for getting it wrong). If you have a site with that data I'd love to know it.

Here are a couple sources:

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2014MBBrpi1.html

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/rpi

[The Equalizer]

Nice try.

In 2013-2014, the Big East was IMMENSELY weaker than it is this season. That year the Big East only sent 4 teams to the dance, one of them (Providence) only made it because they won the BET. Another (Xavier) had to play in Dayton. The other two (Villanova and Creighton) lost in the round of 32. 10-8 in that Big East is nowhere near 10-8 in this Big East.

Villanova was a 2 seed and Creighton was a 3 seed.  The fact that they were UPSET in the Round of 32 doesn't mean they were IMMENSELY weaker.
 

St. John's RPI that year was 65, much lower than the 45-50 we project to be if we go 10-8. Their SOS was 50, much lower than the 25-30 we are projecting to be. In addition to that, they had two losses that were much worse than anything we currently have on our resume (Penn State and @DePaul) losing to us also didn't help. Saint John's also went 2-9 against NCAA tournament teams that year with one of the 2 wins being against a team that only made it because they won their conference tournament.

That's fine.  I already said you'd make the RPI argument.  That's really the only thing different. I'm not comfortable if we are the worst seed in a multi-way tie, and wind up losing to the worst team in the conference in the first round of the BET. 

If you're 100% certain, all the power to you.  That's your view. 

I simply don't think there's enough in our body of work to call us a iron clad lock.  Last year we had a win over #1 Villanova. I felt better then.

In any event, we may have the chance to find out soon enough.  If we wind up in the position I described after the BET, we'll see if we're in 100% of the brackets or not.  Or if anyone here expresses concern that we might not be picked.   

There is no scenario where losing to VCU is better than beating VCU. And yes, it was more impactful than the UGA game. I did think it was nice trick though when earlier in the post you said "the committee looks at more than just RPI" and then when answering this part of the question you only listed the RPI and left off the significantly weakened SOS.

I also didn't include the significantly strengthened adjusted winning percentage.  Because like the SOS, its already incorporated into the overall RPI. 

I'm willing to admit that the SOS by beating VCU was better.  Slightly (31 versus 37). 

But more importantly, it was not better enough to offset the more significant drop in our adjusted winning percentage (or any OOWP impact), which resulted in a net 5 point drop in RPI by beating VCU instead of Georgia.   

And that was my point from the get-go. Georgia would have been a more important win.  We would be in a better position today if we had lost to VCU and beat Georgia at home.

[Jay Bee]

FWIW... MU has one loss outside of Quadrant 1.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Michigan losing to LSU really threw off the math.  Had the Wolverines won, the winners bracket would have been much stronger and the losers bracket much weaker.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Villanova was a 2 seed and Creighton was a 3 seed.  The fact that they were UPSET in the Round of 32 doesn't mean they were IMMENSELY weaker.

Sure. But the fact that they only got 4 bids, one of which was Dayton, another of which was an autobid for Providence winning the BET does mean they were IMMENSELY weaker.

That's fine.  I already said you'd make the RPI argument.  That's really the only thing different. I'm not comfortable if we are the worst seed in a multi-way tie, and wind up losing to the worst team in the conference in the first round of the BET.

Well RPI is the main thing the committee looks at so that's a BIG difference. And it's not the only one. SOS was about 20 points weaker for Saint John's. They also had a loss to a sub 100 RPI team (Penn State) and a loss to a sub 150 RPI team (DePaul). Marquette's worse loss at this point is to a Georgia team that has been flirting with the top 50.

If you're 100% certain, all the power to you.  That's your view. 

I simply don't think there's enough in our body of work to call us a iron clad lock.  Last year we had a win over #1 Villanova. I felt better then.

In any event, we may have the chance to find out soon enough.  If we wind up in the position I described after the BET, we'll see if we're in 100% of the brackets or not.  Or if anyone here expresses concern that we might not be picked.

That's your opinion. It's not backed by any facts but it's your opinion. If you can find me a high major team that has been left out since the tournament expanded to 68 teams with a top 50 RPI and a top 30 SOS than I will be inclined to believe you. Heck, if you found one since the field expanded to 64 I would be surprised.

I also didn't include the significantly strengthened adjusted winning percentage.  Because like the SOS, its already incorporated into the overall RPI. 

I'm willing to admit that the SOS by beating VCU was better.  Slightly (31 versus 37). 

But more importantly, it was not better enough to offset the more significant drop in our adjusted winning percentage (or any OOWP impact), which resulted in a net 5 point drop in RPI by beating VCU instead of Georgia.   

And that was my point from the get-go. Georgia would have been a more important win.  We would be in a better position today if we had lost to VCU and beat Georgia at home.

SOS is included in RPI, but it is also a separate stat listed on the team sheets used by the committee. You also have no idea if it would improved the adjusted winning percentage. There is ZERO reason to assume that we would have beaten Michigan. Every prediction model would favor Michigan on a neutral court.

Again here are the results of the various scenarios (this was calcuated before the Villanova loss).

Oh, and regarding the bolded. Our current RPI is 51 and SOS is 34. Since you are so insistent that beating Georgia was more important than beating VCU I decided to test your theory. I switched Georgia to a win, VCU to a loss, dropped the Wichita State/LSU games and substituted in a win against Cal and a loss against Michigan. Our numbers changed to RPI 57 SOS 53. Even if we beat Michigan our numbers would be RPI 44 SOS 53, a worse resume. If we had played LSU that team that was "supposed" to be in the 5th place game the numbers are even worse. It wasn't about getting to lose to Wichita State. It was about not losing to a resume killer like VCU and having to play an even bigger resume killer in Cal.

[Ws against VCU/LSU with Ls against WSU/UGA] is a better outcome than [Ws against UGA/CAL with Ls against VCU/MICH]

You are wrong. I don't speak in absolutes often but you are wrong. Losing to VCU and having to play Cal would have bombed our resume, much worse than a loss to Georgia did.

[Newsdreams]

FWIW... MU has one loss outside of Quadrant 1.

Now you are just going to confuse him.