Results: 2016-2017 MU Scoop Prediction Survey

[MUFlutieEffect]

If Scoopers are correct...


After a 20-10 regular season record, our Warriors will fall in the Big East Tournament Quarters, dropping to 20-11 and sitting squarely on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday.

A 10-8 conference record, including three road wins (DePaul, St. John's, Providence), will be good enough for 5th in the Big East.  The resume will be padded with three big non-con victories over Vandy, Pittsburg/SMU, and Georgia, alongside a close loss to Michigan at MSG.  Further boosting optimism on the morning of March 12th will be the lack of 'bad losses' for Marquette, with a mere three losses all season at the BC (Wisconsin, Xavier, Nova) and a flawless 7-0 against non-conference 'cupcakes' (although Fresno State hardly deserves the 'cupcake' moniker, as taking down the Bulldogs will prove more difficult than four Big East games).

In the end, the Warriors will have slightly better than coin-flip odds to punch Wojo's first NCAA Tournament Ticket, with ~55% of Scoopers predicting Marquette will go dancing.


Many thanks to the 136 of you who took the survey.  Depending on the reception, I'm thinking about taking another poll after the non-conference season - should be interesting to see if/how the tenor of first 12 games impacts Scoopers' expectations of the Big East regular season.

Some highlights are below, with a downloadable Excel file here (pivot off of the "Annotated Results" tab for some easy analysis):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VaWcvDStYcPEDrxEHBPnILyDBiH4VI6aJk1-gA0WgUA/pubhtml



Regular Season Record

Overall: 20-10
   Home:    14-3
   Away:     4-6
   Neutral:  2-1

Big East: 10-8
   Home:   7-2
   Away:    3-6

Non-Conference: 10-8
   Majors:     3-2
   Cupcakes: 7-0

Big East Regular Season Finish      

High:1st (one Scooper)
Low: 9th (two Scooper)
Average         
   Mean:     5.11029411764706
   Median:   5th
   Mode:     5th

BE Tourney Finish      

High: Win BET (one Scooper)
Low:  Lose in First Round (eleven Scoopers)
Average      
   Mean:   5.72592592592593
   Median: Lose in the Quarterfinals
   Mode:    Lose in the Quarterfinals

Post-Season         

NCAA:              54.01%
NIT:                 34.31%
Other Tourney: 00.00%
None:              11.68%

Points of Unanimity      

Win over Houston Baptist:         100%
Win over Howard:                     100%
Win over SIU-Edwardsville:        100%
Win at Villanova:                       0%
'Other' Post-Season Tourney:     0%

Regular Season Schedule by Likelihood of MU Victory

100% H: Houston Baptist
100% H: Howard
100% H: SIU-Edwardsville
99%   H: DePaul
99%   H: IUPUI
99%   H: Western Carolina
99%   H: Saint Francis
99%   H: St. John's
97%   A: DePaul   
96%   H: Providence
94%   H: Fresno State
85%   H: Georgetown
85%   H: Creighton
80%   A: St. John's
79%   H: Butler
77%   N: Vanderbilt
77%   H: Seton Hall
64%   A: Providence
57%   A: Georgia
55%   N: Pittsburgh/SMU
48%   N: Michigan
39%   H: Xavier
33%   H: Wisconsin
28%   A: Butler
26%   A: Georgetown
23%   H: Villanova
20%   A: Creighton
16%   A: Seton Hall
4%     A: Xavier
0%     A: Villanova

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Great work Flutie.

Interesting wrinkle. If I am reading this correctly, the person who picked us to finish 10th also picked us to win every game this season.

[brewcity77]

If we win 20 games before the BET, we'll be dancing, no matter what happens at MSG. Conference tournaments are vastly overrated anyway.

[fjm]

This was well done. Awesome work! I'd take these results this season

[Loose Cannon]

Really hope you are able to take another poll after the Non-Conference seasons.  Thanks again.

[copious1218]

Isn't Georgia an Away game this year?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Isn't Georgia an Away game this year?

It is. Good catch

[MUFlutieEffect]

Great work Flutie.

Interesting wrinkle. If I am reading this correctly, the person who picked us to finish 10th also picked us to win every game this season.

Thanks for the note, TAMU, and great find.  I had done some brief spot-checks, but apparently underestimated the will of MUScoop trolls.  I reviewed the data, took out two responses, and updated everything above as well as the downloadable file.

Thanks again!

[MUFlutieEffect]

Isn't Georgia an Away game this year?

Thanks, Copious - noted and updated!

[GGGG]

Bumping this thread to show that Marquette is pretty much performing to what the collective Scoop nation anticipated before the beginning of the season. 

[MerrittsMustache]

Bumping this thread to show that Marquette is pretty much performing to what the collective Scoop nation anticipated before the beginning of the season.

Based on the season-long reactions from the board, I was pretty sure that MU was predicted to be 28-0 right now.

[tower912]

Trolls and whiners weren't around to do the survey.   

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So far we have won three games the fans didn't expect (NOVA, @CREI, X) and lost 5 games the fans didn't expect (PROV, @SJU, BUT, @PROV, PITT). Pretty spot on considering 4 of those were our closest losses of the season. @SJU....not so much.

[Benny B]

Great work Flutie.

Interesting wrinkle. If I am reading this correctly, the person who picked us to finish 10th also picked us to win every game this season.

It's called "hedging" your bets.  All the cool cats are doing it these days.