Game Winners under Wojo

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Eng brought up a pattern where Wojo has been unable to draw up a winning play when the game is within 1 possession at the buzzer. I honestly didn't know so I thought I would go back and look.

2016-2017:
vs. Pittsburgh (FAIL): Rowsey drive fails to draw foul (down by 1)

2015-2016:
vs. Georgetown (SUCCESS): Luke draws foul and sinks FTs (down by 1)
vs. Creighton (FAIL): Duane misses three pointer (down by three)
vs. Providence (SUCCESS): Carter makes layup to force OT. Goes onto win in double OT (down by 2)
vs. Arizona State (FAIL): Carter misses jumper gets own rebound, misses layup. Goes on to win OT. (Tied)
vs. LSU (SUCCESS): JJJ forces FTs and sinks them both (down by 1)
vs. IUPUI (FAIL): Duane misses three pointer. Goes on to win in OT (Tied)
vs. Belmont (FAIL): Henry commits a charge and turns it over (down by 1)

2014-2015:
vs. Butler (FAIL): Carlino turns it over. Goes onto lose in OT (tied)
vs. Georgetown (SUCCESS): Car3no makes a long two pointer that was originally ruled a three. Stupid pinky toe. Goes on to lose in OT (down by 2)
@ Xavier (FAIL): Carlino misses three pointer (down by three)
vs. Creighton (SUCCESS): Car3no makes three pointer (down by 2)
@Depaul (FAIL): Duane misses three pointer (down by three)

So in three years of Wojo, he has successfully drawn up game winning or tying plays in 5 out of 13 opportunities. That's 38.5% for those of you keeping track at home. I have no idea what a "good" percentage would be on this stat. I would imagine most coaches are below 50%. Fun fact, Carlino, Duane, and Carter are the only three who have had multiple attempts to win the game. Wojo likes his PGs at the end. Also noticed that 3 of the 8 FAILs were when we were down by three. So in late game situations where we are down two, one, or tied, Wojo is 5-5.

[MarquetteDano]

I have no idea what a "good" percentage would be on this stat. I would imagine most coaches are below 50%.

If I was a betting man,  I would say a good percentage depends on what the lead is.  I would say when a team is even,  a good coach wins about 60% of the time.  When a team is down 1,  a good coach wins about 50% of the time.  When a team is down 2,  I would guess a good coach wins only 40% of the time and down three isn't very good... maybe 25% of the time?

[jsglow]

TAMU I'm confused.  Is your reference to WIN/LOSS the success or lack thereof of the play at the end of regulation?

[brewcity77]

TAMU I'm confused.  Is your reference to WIN/LOSS the success or lack thereof of the play at the end of regulation?

Gotta be winning the play, because two of the "losses" were won in overtime after tie games on our last possession, and one "win" (Carlino against GT, remember that like it was yesterday) ended up being a game we lost in overtime.

[jsglow]

Gotta be winning the play, because two of the "losses" were won in overtime after tie games on our last possession, and one "win" (Carlino against GT, remember that like it was yesterday) ended up being a game we lost in overtime.

That's what I'm assuming too.

[#UnleashSean]

If I was a betting man,  I would say a good percentage depends on what the lead is.  I would say when a team is even,  a good coach wins about 60% of the time.  When a team is down 1,  a good coach wins about 50% of the time.  When a team is down 2,  I would guess a good coach wins only 40% of the time and down three isn't very good... maybe 25% of the time?

I would assume being down 1 or 2 would have near the same. Since the same shot would be put up regardless.

[THRILLHO]

So in three years of Wojo, he has successfully drawn up game winning or tying plays in 5 out of 13 opportunities. That's 27.8% for those of you keeping track at home.

You may want to repeat that calculation. Think maybe you did 5 / 18?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

TAMU I'm confused.  Is your reference to WIN/LOSS the success or lack thereof of the play at the end of regulation?

Maybe a poor choice of words. Like Sultan said, it was about winning the individual play. Success/fail might been better. Edited above.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You may want to repeat that calculation. Think maybe you did 5 / 18?

Totally did. Thanks for the assist. Edited above.

[MarquetteDano]

I would assume being down 1 or 2 would have near the same. Since the same shot would be put up regardless.

Have to include fouls.

[bilsu]

How about last year's DePaul game? Wilson hit what should of been the winning shot. However, we gave the game away after that.
2014-15 Butler game we had a 10 point lead with less than 3 minutes to go. That was a bigger meltdown than the Pitt game.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

How about last year's DePaul game? Wilson hit what should of been the winning shot. However, we gave the game away after that.
2014-15 Butler game we had a 10 point lead with less than 3 minutes to go. That was a bigger meltdown than the Pitt game.

I don't think you understand the point of this thread. This is looking at how the team has done when the game is tied or they are down 1-3 and Wojo calls a play out of a timeout.

[Dawson Rental]

If I was a betting man,  I would say a good percentage depends on what the lead is.  I would say when a team is even,  a good coach wins about 60% of the time.  When a team is down 1,  a good coach wins about 50% of the time.  When a team is down 2,  I would guess a good coach wins only 40% of the time and down three isn't very good... maybe 25% of the time?

During McGuire's last two years, I remember thinking the game was in the bag if if MU was down by one, but had the last possession.

[MarquetteDano]

During McGuire's last two years, I remember thinking the game was in the bag if if MU was down by one, but had the last possession.

Difference between a good coach and a great coach.   

[real chili 83]

When Buzz was coach, there was a string of games where we were down by 20 and always came back.  Jae, DJO, etc. 

[Goose]

Aside from last season an Al led team never lost a game they were supposed win. Game on the line it was money.

Agreed on the Buzz era. As an old timer fan I would say the comeback win WVU showed the balls of that team. Buzz's teams closed at a very high level.

[GGGG]

Aside from last season an Al led team never lost a game they were supposed win.

I seriously doubt that.

[Goose]

Vinnie

Aside from Al's last season they never lost a game they were supposed to win. You can take that to the bank and tell them Goose sent you.

[79Warrior]

I seriously doubt that.

Then you don't know your history.

[Galway Eagle]

Vinnie

Aside from Al's last season they never lost a game they were supposed to win. You can take that to the bank and tell them Goose sent you.

Ohio state says hi

[GGGG]

Then you don't know your history.

I do know my history.  Al McGuire lost games he was supposed to win.  Not often, but to say he never did outside of 76-77 is simply false.

[Goose]

Vinnie

A guy far smarter than I am said we never lost a game we should have won in the Al era. That guy unfortunately is not here to confirm.

[bilsu]

Difference between a good coach and a great coach.   

I think Wojo would be winning a lot more close games, if he had the players Al had.

[GGGG]

Vinnie

A guy far smarter than I am said we never lost a game we should have won in the Al era. That guy unfortunately is not here to confirm.

So are you really saying that he lost no game where Marquette was favored beforehand?  Because I know that isn't the case.  For instance, in 1973-74 they lost a home game when they were ranked #6 against an unranked Creighton team.  Now Creighton was very good that year, but they weren't the national runner up like MU was.

There are a number of other examples as well.