Can We Learn Defense?

[BM1090]

These stats are meaningless right now anyway.  As has been pointed out there are only 6 games.  4 of which are against bad teams(1 slightly above average team) that wont approach the level of 18 BE games that is being used as the comparison.  In fact if you were to surmise anything from these stats it COULD be that they are troubling considering the stats from last year are including 18 BE conference games and the stats this year are against largely cupcakes.

The stats are adjusted for the level of competition.

[avid1010]

These stats are meaningless right now anyway.  As has been pointed out there are only 6 games.  4 of which are against bad teams(1 slightly above average team) that wont approach the level of 18 BE games that is being used as the comparison.  In fact if you were to surmise anything from these stats it COULD be that they are troubling considering the stats from last year are including 18 BE conference games and the stats this year are against largely cupcakes.

this is fun...tell me what you do for a living so i can make a bunch of incorrect judgments about your performance. 

[Silkk the Shaka]

Pomeroy wrote an article not too long ago that concluded good defense had a high correlation with height. IIRC

MU is 182nd in a avg height according to Pomeroy. We are not long and not overly quick compared to many other high majors I have watched this year.

I agree with TAMU.

Oh snap, totally forgot about that post, good call. And you're right, our smalls aren't all that quick, the way the three amigos & the midgets team were. That can help mitigate, but with that lack of those two factors, guessing we'll remain fairly pedestrian on D. Hopefully we can juice up the Off efficiency to compensate.

[Let's Go Warriors]

this is fun...tell me what you do for a living so i can make a bunch of incorrect judgments about your performance.

6 games and yes, at this point these stats are meaningless.  No less so than passing complete judgement on Wojos ability to coach defense  You cant have it both ways.  Claim that it is too early to cast judgement on this teams defense but then claim stats at this point mean a lot.  Nice try though.

I've yet to have someone claim that the team is playing really good/great defense.  That speaks volumes.  Just that its basically too early to tell and that MU is "improving".

[GGGG]

I've yet to have someone claim that the team is playing really good/great defense.  That speaks volumes.  Just that its basically too early to tell and that MU is "improving".

And?  I mean, what is your overall point here?  We will know more in 4-6 weeks if the defense has improved.  If it is, we will be happy.  If it isn't, we will have concerns.

[Marcus92]

These stats are meaningless right now anyway.  As has been pointed out there are only 6 games.  4 of which are against bad teams(1 slightly above average team) that wont approach the level of 18 BE games that is being used as the comparison.  In fact if you were to surmise anything from these stats it COULD be that they are troubling considering the stats from last year are including 18 BE conference games and the stats this year are against largely cupcakes.

They're not meaningless stats. They're simply based on limited data — and therefore of limited worth. (As pointed out previously, KenPom's AdjO and AdjD values are adjusted for the level of competition.)

At no point last season did KenPom rate Marquette as highly as it's rated right now (42nd in the country, solid NCAA bubble territory). MU opened the 2015-16 season rated 53rd, was rated as low as 120th after struggling against Stetson, and finished the season rated 100th.

Things could change, of course. But from everything that I've seen, I'm confident that Marquette is a significantly better team this year.

[Let's Go Warriors]

And?  I mean, what is your overall point here?  We will know more in 4-6 weeks if the defense has improved.  If it is, we will be happy.  If it isn't, we will have concerns.

My point is (and I know that Im not alone here) the quality of team defense for two plus seasons is very concerning.  Some people seem to want to put their head in the sand and ignore it or wish it away.

Someone said that their expectations were that MU should make either the NIT or the NCAA this season.  I find that a reasonable goal.  If the defense stays the way it has the last 2 seasons plus 6 games.  I would guess they don't reach that mark.

I hope they improve under Wojo i really do.  That is the best case scenario for MU. 

[Let's Go Warriors]

They're not meaningless stats. They're simply based on limited data — and therefore of limited worth. (As pointed out previously, KenPom's AdjO and AdjD values are adjusted for the level of competition.)

At no point last season did KenPom rate Marquette as highly as it's rated right now (42nd in the country, solid NCAA bubble territory). MU opened the 2015-16 season rated 53rd, was rated as low as 120th after struggling against Stetson, and finished the season rated 100th.

Things could change, of course. But from everything that I've seen, I'm confident that Marquette is a significantly better team this year.

Completely agree.  Better stated "limited worth"

[GGGG]

My point is (and I know that Im not alone here) the quality of team defense for two plus seasons is very concerning.  Some people seem to want to put their head in the sand and ignore it or wish it away.

I don't see anyone doing that.  Some people are seeing signs of improvement.  Others aren't.

As I said, we will know in 4-6 weeks. 

[MUBigDance]

What was that saying again??

"The best Defense is a good Offense"? ... "The best Offense is a good Defense"? ... "The best Defense is a good Defense"?

yeah that's it!   "The best Defense is...a good Defense"   

So that's my advice to Wojo...go with the good defense!

[Loose Cannon]

My point is (and I know that Im not alone here) the quality of team defense for two plus seasons is very concerning.  Some people seem to want to put their head in the sand and ignore it or wish it away.

Someone said that their expectations were that MU should make either the NIT or the NCAA this season.  I find that a reasonable goal.  If the defense stays the way it has the last 2 seasons plus 6 games.  I would guess they don't reach that mark.

I hope they improve under Wojo i really do.  That is the best case scenario for MU.

Curious, are you in the camp to give Wojo 5 years?

[Marcus92]

Some of my favorite quotes on basketball defense:

"Defense is all about helping. No one can guard a good dribbler. You have to walk kids through how to help and then how to help the helper." Bob Knight

"Winning is more related to good defense than good offense." Dr. Jack Ramsay

"The difference between a good defensive team and a bad defensive team is as little as three possessions." Brad Stevens

"If you're not talking, you're not playing defense." Doc Rivers

"My philosophy of defense is to keep the pressure on an opponent until you get to his emotions." John Wooden

"Defense is one man guarding the ball and four others helping him." Coach K

"Those to whom defense is not important will have the best seat in the game." Rick Majerus

"I learned defense from Bobby Knight and psychology from Al McGuire." Digger Phelps

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

These stats are meaningless right now anyway.  As has been pointed out there are only 6 games.  4 of which are against bad teams(1 slightly above average team) that wont approach the level of 18 BE games that is being used as the comparison.  In fact if you were to surmise anything from these stats it COULD be that they are troubling considering the stats from last year are including 18 BE conference games and the stats this year are against largely cupcakes.

Except our Big East brethren have played similar schedules and comparatively we are doing better against them than we did last season. I would have to run the numbers again (last laptop got destoryed and I lost last year's spreadsheets) but I'm pretty sure both our defensive and offensive ratings were worse six games in last season. And we played a much softer schedule.

The numbers aren't definitive, that is true. But again, most of the numbers say we are better team this year than last year. Could just be early season flukes but they are pointing towards an improved team.

[MUBigDance]

Some of my favorite quotes on basketball defense:

"Defense is all about helping. No one can guard a good dribbler. You have to walk kids through how to help and then how to help the helper." Bob Knight

"Winning is more related to good defense than good offense." Dr. Jack Ramsay

"The difference between a good defensive team and a bad defensive team is as little as three possessions." Brad Stevens

"If you're not talking, you're not playing defense." Doc Rivers

"My philosophy of defense is to keep the pressure on an opponent until you get to his emotions." John Wooden

"Defense is one man guarding the ball and four others helping him." Coach K

"Those to whom defense is not important will have the best seat in the game." Rick Majerus

"I learned defense from Bobby Knight and psychology from Al McGuire." Digger Phelps

Nice.

I wonder what its like to go 4 years under a great coach....great stuff....not counting the occasional Knight knuckle sandwich.

[Class71]

I agree that the defense hasn't improved. But if you don't think that they have improved "playing as a team" I don't know what to tell you. The strategy last season was give Henry the ball and pray he scores. We have seen much better shot selection, ball movement, drives, passing, unselfishness, etc.

I have zero doubts that this team is better than last year's. Better enough to compensate for our tougher schedule/conference? Remains to be seen.

Agree on the HE comment also agree vs. last year. I was referring to the lack of progress this year and how far we must go in a very short period of time to become relevant. Under Buzz, I hate to say this, there were a number of times that real progress was made from game to game. The season is young so maybe it will happen but I am not sure if the offense is more than shoot 3's, drive and hope for the best. Three shooting has improved considerably but passing, protecting the ball, finding the open man, kick-outs, etc. maybe better than last year but it is still well below being competitive in the BE.

Maybe I am wrong but I think these fundamentals can and should be taught early. I certainly give underclassman a pass but the issue is larger than that.

At this point I think forget the top 4 in the BE. We have little chance of a win home or away. SH at 5 is big and strong with some outside shooting. Not looking good for us but on a good day maybe 1 win. That leaves Gtown, DePaul, St. John's and Providence. That means to be at .500 we need to sweep these four and split with SH or for every loss to the bottom 4 we need to win one from the top 4.

Given the above, for us to go .500 in BE is a long shot. Going into season three, I have to admit, I expected more. 10-8 would be a success but it looks pretty far away at this point.

Appreciate your thoughts.

[muwarrior69]

So far....No!

[Jay Bee]

Six games doesn't tell the whole story. But as far as the opening chapter goes, KenPom says Marquette is significantly better on both ends of the floor.

2015-16
AdjO 106.9 (8th in the Big East)
AdjD 99.0 (7th in the Big East)

2016-17
AdjO 110.2 (5th in the Big East)
AdjD 95.4 (5th in the Big East)

If that holds true, we're a pretty good bet for the NCAA tournament. Could be we improve as the season goes on — or we crumble in the face of serious competition. Only time will tell. I'm optimistic about this team and genuinely excited about where the program's headed under Wojo.

Please restate AdjO and AdjD by year on a comparative basis (adjusted for average D-1 team).

[Jay Bee]

MU gave up just as many points to HBU and IUPUI (go Jags) as they did to Pitt and UM.  Unless someone disagrees with the sentiment that the former are not on the same plane as the latter, I would not look too deeply
into defense the last two games and try to extrapolate that into something meaningful, or even relevant.

Please adjust points per game to a possessions basis (doesn't change things much at all, but points per game isn't relevant by itself).

BTW.. key for me.. is that vs Pitt and Michigan .. we let them shot 60.0% from 2-point range. That's awful. Against HBU & IUPUI.. only 43.6% 2FG%. BIG difference and very meaningful. 

[Nukem2]

Please adjust points per game to a possessions basis (doesn't change things much at all, but points per game isn't relevant by itself).

BTW.. key for me.. is that vs Pitt and Michigan .. we let them shot 60.0% from 2-point range. That's awful. Against HBU & IUPUI.. only 43.6% 2FG%. BIG difference and very meaningful.

True, but need to consider the opponent?

[Jay Bee]

True, but need to consider the opponent?

Yep -- AND your personnel choices --- AND your style of play, etc, driven by the opponent & flow of game.

[Marcus92]

Please restate AdjO and AdjD by year on a comparative basis (adjusted for average D-1 team).

True, you can't compare the numerical values for AdjO and AdjD from different seasons. I should have left those out to avoid confusion. But the relative rankings within the Big East do suggest improvement (especially with the strength of the conference this year).

[Benny B]

Please adjust points per game to a possessions basis (doesn't change things much at all, but points per game isn't relevant by itself).

BTW.. key for me.. is that vs Pitt and Michigan .. we let them shot 60.0% from 2-point range. That's awful. Against HBU & IUPUI.. only 43.6% 2FG%. BIG difference and very meaningful.

Exactly.  In a fast pace game where you score a lot of points, you're also going to give up a lot of points.  What you score/allow on an absolute basis is virtually irrelevant... margin of victory is key (which is influenced by %ages)