2016 Minutes

[Dawson Rental]

Before critiquing another of my posts, please consider Boon's advice to Otter in the following clip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI

You're telling me that Rowsey was "by far" the best player from the time he stepped on campus.. but when I look at 2013-14, I see Jaron Lane and DJ Cunningham (min-adj'd) having been better. I fail to see how you can make this claim looking at the facts.

Rowsey is intriguing to me. Really hoping for the best. But, to through out some fair thoughts.. look at his size... and his game. Much of his success has been his ability to draw contact and get to the line... can he continue to do so with college basketball's rules today and in the BEast?

I think you also need to look at how Rowsey competing against non-crap competition.
As a Soph, overall:
111.3 ORtg, 49.6% eFG, 36.6% FTRate
As a Soph, vs. top 100 adj KenPom comp [8 Games]:
93.4%, 43.4%, 23.2%

And, btw.. the 8 top 100 games weren't against great teams.. had a terrific outing vs. the top of the bunch - South Carolina - take out that game and it looks a lot worse.. the other 7: Coastal Carolina x2, Radford, Wake Forest, UAB, High Point, Winthrop

Now, going back to your "he was the man from day 1"... again, that's not true. He was the man in year 2, but not his freshman year. So.. what happened to his shooting... when as a freshman he had more support... vs. as a sophomore when he was the guy?

2-point shooting: FR 45.9%, SO 40.1%
3-point shooting: FR 41.2%, SO 37.1%
eFG%: FR 54.6%, SO 49.6%

These are not insignificant decreases. His 49.6% eFG% at UNC Asheville... compare that to some of last year's Warriors.. Duane Wilson.. 51.5%.. JjJ 56.2%.. Haanif.. 54.3%.. Sandy 53.1%..

So, we can say he's a shooter.. and say he was the man at Asheville.. but a brief look at the numbers and you may start to take on a different view.

Now, all that said, I'm hopeful and struggle to project him. He's a fourth-year college student... can he makes some significant positive contributions in 2016-17? Sure hope so... but, I don't share your view that he brings with him an amazing resume that can't be denied.

I was basing my evaluation of Rowsey as the best player on UNC Asheville his freshman year on the fact that he was first team All Big South as a freshman while Lane and Cunningham were second team All Big South that year.  You, obviously, went more in depth.

http://big-south.s3.amazonaws.com/medias/files/11298/original.pdf?1418781952

I would think that with the rule changes effective last year, Rowsey should be more likely than before to draw contact and get to the line.  I would be more concerned about how the rule changes might affect him on defense.

I believe next year, Rowsey will be much closer to the situation he was in as a freshman at UNC Asheville where opposing defenses had two other strong players to concentrate on then the situation he was in as a sophomore where he had to be the go to guy .  So right or wrong, I'm not too worried about the drop in his production as a sophomore.  I think that he will excel as a complementary threat in the offense.

I believe the reason you don't see Howard for who he is has much to do with you not seeing him play before, his age, unfamiliarity with his #'s in travel and USA BBall, etc. Howard's success year one will have to do with his shooting. If he strokes it like he can, goodnight. Get ready to drool.

You are right about the fact that I have not seen Howard play in person.  I'm still not sure that Wojo will play him at the point as a freshman, given the other options MU will have there.  I am totally in agreement with your evaluation of his ability to contribute right away with his shooting.

[jsglow]

The big one for me is Luke (nh). Especially if we don't bring in another PF/C who can play the 5 if needed, if Luke is out for extended time, we're in a lot of trouble inside.

I think there are a lot of solid options 1 to 3, and if playing small, 4... but, Luke.. that's the guy you really want to see stay healthy above all else.

AND out of foul trouble.  Luke needs to do 2 things much better this year.  1) Rebound. 2) Avoid silly fouls.

[jsglow]

It absolutely is, but it gives us something to talk about.

My main problem is looking at guys as being "worthy" of certain minutes then realizing those minutes likely don't exist.

I can see the following...

Luke 32 mpg
Heldt 10 mpg
Sandy 18 mpg
Reinhardt 26 mpg
Anim 10 mpg
Hauser 10 mpg
Jajuan 26 mpg
Cheatham 28 mpg
Duane 26 mpg
Carter 22 mpg
Rowsey 20 mpg
Howard 20 mpg

Granted, this doesn't include if we add Young or another big, but the problem with my numbers is this already comes out to 248 minutes per game and unless we play a lot of overtime, we don't have that much time to go around. I think there will be a lot of contention for minutes and hope it's a good thing, because I may have undersold what some of these guys (Heldt, Anim, Hauser, Howard) are capable of giving. And of course, Young could be in for another 12-15 mpg if he's ready as a freshman.

Are we ready for 2-3 overtime games on a nightly basis?

Brew, what you need to count on in individual games is DNP-CDs.  I think it too early to tell who the most likely candidates are.

[Dawson Rental]

Agreed. We have more depth than I've seen in a long time — except at the 5. But an injury at any other position could have a dramatic impact on who gets playing time (and how much).

On the positive side, at least we have A five, and won't be counting on a Lazar or Jae to play it with a significant size disadvantage.

[MU82]

How long till we play Vandy?

Oh, only about 804 Scoop speculation threads away.

[Slim]

I agree, Glow. Luke's propensity to foul is aggravating.  Now that he has to be THE rebounder, his fouls are more likely to be hustle,  over-the-back, illegal box out fouls. I think 30 minutes a game for him is pie in the sky. I hope for Young, but till then, I expect more minutes from Matt.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I agree, Glow. Luke's propensity to foul is aggravating.  Now that he has to be THE rebounder, his fouls are more likely to be hustle,  over-the-back, illegal box out fouls. I think 30 minutes a game for him is pie in the sky. I hope for Young, but till then, I expect more minutes from Matt.

Luke averaged 28.2 mpg last season and 29.3 mpg the season before. I don't think him ending up with 30 in his senior season is a huge stretch.

[Herman Cain]

Luke averaged 28.2 mpg last season and 29.3 mpg the season before. I don't think him ending up with 30 in his senior season is a huge stretch.

We need 30 minutes from him.

[brewcity77]

Brew, what you need to count on in individual games is DNP-CDs.  I think it too early to tell who the most likely candidates are.

What I more hoped to illustrate is that I'm hoping we have more talent than we have minutes to give. If that's the case, it should bring out the best in the guys we do have and the ones that earn minutes will have to work that much harder to get them.

[bilsu]

What I more hoped to illustrate is that I'm hoping we have more talent than we have minutes to give. If that's the case, it should bring out the best in the guys we do have and the ones that earn minutes will have to work that much harder to get them.

I agree with this, but as I do my allocation of minutes I tend to ignore the likely premise that in the end 9 guys are going to play and the remaining 4 no matter how good are not going to play. The bottom 4 get to play when there are injuries, foul trouble or blowouts. We probably will not be blowing out any Big East teams. Right now it is hard to pick the bottom 4 (bottom 3 since we have 12 players). I would guess Anim, Cohen or Hauser, and Rowsey or Howard. I am not a fan of under 6' guards and see no way they both play significant minutes. It is hard to pick the bottom 3, so I think that proves you are right that there is more talent than minutes. I do remember Buzz saying one year that having very little talent difference between the starters and second team was a two edge sword. That was an interesting comment. However, all you have to do is look at Kentucky two years ago, where Callipari tried to play platoons and actually managed to lose a game by trying to use everybody.

[Marcus92]

However, all you have to do is look at Kentucky two years ago, where Callipari tried to play platoons and actually managed to lose a game by trying to use everybody.

A 9-man or 10-man rotation is almost unprecedented in college basketball. For most teams, only 7 or 8 players log regular minutes (at least 8-10 mpg) while appearing in 30+ games.

The exception you mentioned is an interesting one. The 2014-15 Kentucky Wildcats were a super team. Nine players appeared in 36 or more games, averaging between 10.9 and 25.9 mpg. Karl Anthony-Towns played just 21.1 minutes a game — and went #1 overall in the NBA draft.

What really gets my attention is comparing that to top NBA teams. Nine players on last year's Golden State Warrior roster played in at least 66 games, averaging between 14.9 and 32.7 mpg. For the San Antonio Spurs this season, 10 players appeared in at least 58 games and averaged between 16.0 and 33.1 mpg.

The comparison has its limits. The pro game is 20% longer than college ball (48 minutes per game vs. 40 minutes) and the pace is faster (24-second shot clock vs. 30 seconds). And the season is more than twice as long (meaning injuries are a bigger concern).

With that in mind, the college game is getting faster (shorter shot clock), more athletic, more like the NBA game. Calipari is college basketball's most NBA-like coach — it should come as no surprise that he builds and manages rosters in a similar way.

Does that mean Wojo or other coaches will follow suit? Coach K's rotation last year was just 7 players. Nova went 8 deep. But Xavier played a legitimate 9-man rotation (10 if you count Sean O'Mara, who averaged just 7 mpg in 32 games).

[Jay Bee]

A 9-man or 10-man rotation is almost unprecedented in college basketball. For most teams, only 7 or 8 players log regular minutes (at least 8-10 mpg) while appearing in 30+ games.

This is false. Look at the B1G... I4, Purdue, Becky, Neb all over your more than 8 w 8... Others just miss due to injuries & suspensions.. MSU with rounding gets there, Maryland gets there w/a 28 game guy, Iowa w/a 27, Illinois up to 10 w/a 29 & 28

[Marcus92]

This is false. Look at the B1G... I4, Purdue, Becky, Neb all over your more than 8 w 8... Others just miss due to injuries & suspensions.. MSU with rounding gets there, Maryland gets there w/a 28 game guy, Iowa w/a 27, Illinois up to 10 w/a 29 & 28

I stand corrected. You're right, 9-man regular rotations are by no means "almost unprecedented."

[tower912]

Hey, I was right to predict Young wasn't coming.    Back to the minute for players who will actually be at MU.