eFG%, Win Probabilities and Such

[Dr. Blackheart]

A couple years ago, we looked at a set of the Pomeroy statistics to understand the importance and probability of the four factors in predicting/explaining wins and losses, home and away, in combination, via advanced stats. I believe Sugar and I were going to write this up for Cracked Sidewalks but never got to it, and I forget if I posted some of this in the past.  But, I thought this would be interesting to post as this debate has made its way into a few current posts here (mainly off topic).

Note this analysis was for 132 games during the "good Buzz" years.  But, looking at this year's results, I say these still hold up. Headline for those stats averse: JayBee is right.

If at home:

• Almost always win when eFG% > 53%, while tend to lose when <45%
• Lose almost every time when eFG% < 43%, lose about half of the time when below 47%
• Excluding the eFG% games > 53%, MU won almost every time when the opponents' eFG% was <48%
• In about a quarter of the games not explained by high MU eFG% and low opponent eFG%, offensive rebounding rate was the differentiating third factor with 35% the demarcation point of winning and losing.

If on the road:

• If MU eFG% > 54%, a win happened in about 80% of the roadies
• When < 52%, MU won only one third of the time
• Excluding games where MU shot >54%, MU won almost every time when they held opponents under 45% eFG%.  And won only 17% of the time when opponent eFG% was greater than 50%.
• Excluding the high eFG shooting games by MU and their opponent, opponent turnover rate was the next discriminator for sleep over games.  MU lost 11% of the games when the opponent's turnover rate was <20.5%, and won 66% when it was higher than 22%.

This is all pretty obvious stuff--Shoot better and you win.  Play great defense and your odds go up even higher. And earn the extra possessions (grab offensive rebounds at home and turnovers on the road) in the toss up games. The probabilities and inflection points are what I found most interesting.

This year's MU team, of all the Buzz and Wojo era teams, is only second to the Midgets in eFG%, and third in defensive eFG% to the 2012 and 2013 teams. This team is the worst MU offensive rebounding team by far in the Pomeroy vault at 28% versus the 35% differentiator (recruiting can fix that). Offensive turnover rate has been problematic yet improving (experience can fix that). Causing turns has been good, however. In the end, rebounding and high turnovers are the deciders in the toss up games not mostly determined by dead-eye shooting.

"Just Make It, Baby"