Question on HS Ranking

[esotericmindguy]

Does anyone have the information on HS rankings and collegiate/NBA success? I believe it was sugar who posted a graph that listed the percent of top 10 recruits make it to the NBA vs. top 30, top 50 etc. I was having a conversation with someone who was under the opinion that HS rankings are a joke. I believe that graph showed that top 50 recruits do matter and 50-150 are sort of a crap shoot. Thanks in advance.

[We R Final Four]

All that HS rankings do is set unrealistic expectations of the team's fan base. 

[esotericmindguy]

All that HS rankings do is set unrealistic expectations of the team's fan base. 

Awesome, thanks for the insight. Sort of the point of the exercise. Except the post that Sugar had actually included thought and evidence.

[oldwarrior81]

This is something I posted last year (complete through the 2014 draft):

I just reran some numbers on RSCI high school ranking vs a player being drafted by the NBA.
Once you get past the top 30 ranked or so there isn't much difference in the odds of a player rated top 50 of getting drafted and a player rated near the bottom of the top 100.

using years 1999-2010;
104 players ranked between 1-10 were drafted (86.7%)
72 players between 11-20 were drafted (60.5%)
47 players between 21-30 were drafted (39.8%)
29 players between 31-40 were drafted (24.4%)
22 players between 41-50 were drafted (18.6%)
21 players between 51-60 were drafted (24.4%)
22 players between 41-50 were drafted (18.6%)
21 players between 51-60 were drafted  (17.6%)
18 players between 91-100 were drafted (15.3%)  among them;  Gilbert Arenas, Emeka Okafor, Darren Collison, Draymond Green, Greivis Vasquez

[oldwarrior81]

where were they drafted?

Top 10 NBA draft pick (2000-2013 draft)
59 ranked 1-10 in rscii
12 ranked 11-20
9 ranked 21-30
4 ranked 31-40
7 ranked 41-50
4 ranked 51-60
2 ranked 61-70
3 ranked 71-80
1 ranked 81-90
2 ranked 91-100
24 unranked in RSCII top 100
13 internationals


overall NBA top 30 pick (2000-2013 draft)
102 ranked 1-10 in rscii
46 ranked 11-20
32 ranked 21-30
31 ranked 31-40
15 ranked 41-50
13 ranked 51-60
  7 ranked 61-70
  7 ranked 71-80
  4 ranked 81-90
  7 ranked 91-100
82 unranked in RSCII top 100
64 internationals

[jesmu84]

I wonder about some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy on rankings as well.

High ranking -> "blue blood" college -> high draft pick (even if only on potential)

If there were some way to quantify actual NBA success (and not just draft position, etc) to HS ranking, that would be interesting.

Or maybe it doesn't matter if they don't succeed in the NBA, as long as they got there

[esotericmindguy]

Good stuff. Thanks!

[MuMark]

24 unranked in RSCII top 100

DWade says hello.....

[brandx]

This is something I posted last year (complete through the 2014 draft):

I just reran some numbers on RSCI high school ranking vs a player being drafted by the NBA.
Once you get past the top 30 ranked or so there isn't much difference in the odds of a player rated top 50 of getting drafted and a player rated near the bottom of the top 100.

using years 1999-2010;
104 players ranked between 1-10 were drafted (86.7%)
72 players between 11-20 were drafted (60.5%)
47 players between 21-30 were drafted (39.8%)
29 players between 31-40 were drafted (24.4%)
22 players between 41-50 were drafted (18.6%)
21 players between 51-60 were drafted (24.4%)
22 players between 41-50 were drafted (18.6%)
21 players between 51-60 were drafted  (17.6%)
18 players between 91-100 were drafted (15.3%)  among them;  Gilbert Arenas, Emeka Okafor, Darren Collison, Draymond Green, Greivis Vasquez

I was gonna post that once you get past the top 30 or so players, it is a crapshoot from about #40 - #200. I think your chart kinda bears this out.

I don't know that there is a way to rank how players will mature. Some, at 18 or 19, are almost as physically mature as they are going to get. Some still have a lot of growing to do (not speaking in terms of height).

Some can fit into a team mentality - some can't. So there is no way to be exact in this stuff.

[oldwarrior81]

24 unranked in RSCII top 100

DWade says hello.....

along with the likes of Steph Curry, Damion Lillard, Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo, Paul George...

[Galway Eagle]

where were they drafted?

Top 10 NBA draft pick (2000-2013 draft)
59 ranked 1-10 in rscii
12 ranked 11-20
9 ranked 21-30
4 ranked 31-40
7 ranked 41-50
4 ranked 51-60
2 ranked 61-70
3 ranked 71-80
1 ranked 81-90
2 ranked 91-100
24 unranked in RSCII top 100
13 internationals


overall NBA top 30 pick (2000-2013 draft)
102 ranked 1-10 in rscii
46 ranked 11-20
32 ranked 21-30
31 ranked 31-40
15 ranked 41-50
13 ranked 51-60
  7 ranked 61-70
  7 ranked 71-80
  4 ranked 81-90
  7 ranked 91-100
82 unranked in RSCII top 100
64 internationals

Should probably also throw in what year they were in school as well. 

[GGGG]

I wonder about some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy on rankings as well.

High ranking -> "blue blood" college -> high draft pick (even if only on potential)

My guess is that a top 10 player is usually just so obviously good that anyone who does a ranking puts them in there.

[HouWarrior]

Reading the scouting reports over the years I noticed some areas, at least in the "public" scouting reports dont get covered.

They will say he is good on this and this, but needs to work/improve on this and this.

They rarely say he is lazy, doesnt challenge himself to get better, has personal/family issues that will hinder his options, seems slow to grasp coaching, ignores those who might help him progress,hangs with the wrong crowd, lacks personal discipline etc, etc

...or

He is incredibly driven, smart and adapts/listens well to coaching, gets along well with teammates, has excellent facilities, family support system, stays clear of drugs, crime, bad friends, ignores the hype, just loves the game, always working on new better skill areas even after hours, etc

Thinking of the great documentary "Hoops"....how much of that "other stuff" is also key to predicting the likely arc of a kid actually progressing to making it to the show?

There is both ever improving science and yet.....still plenty of art to ranking and recruiting...it all makes it more fun to watch/predict, for sure.

[jsheim]

I wonder how hard it would be to go the other way...take the NBA roster players >10min/game at the end of a given year and ask where were they at age 18?