Upset city

[geps]

Va Tech latest upset victim, to Alabama State.
UCLA loses to Monmouth
GTown to Radford
MU to Belmont
NC State to William & Mary by 16.
Wisconsin to W Illinois

All at home.

Don't remember this many upsets the first weekend ever...

[bradley center bat]

North Florida beat Illinois on Friday

[RushmoreAcademy]

We were a 4 point favorite. Technically it was an upset, but this wasn't exactly NJIT.

[MU82]

Biased, of course, but according to RPI and other metrics, Belmont would appear to be by far the best of the teams that won those games mentioned.

Searching for silver lining, as always!

[tower912]

We were a 4 point favorite. Technically it was an upset, but this wasn't exactly NJIT.

Those 4 pts were because it was a home game.   I am confident that a neutral floor game would have been a toss up or slight Belmont lean. 

[mu03eng]

Kenpom had Belmont as favored and a far better loss than any of the other upsets FWIW

[jsglow]

Kenpom had Belmont as favored and a far better loss than any of the other upsets FWIW

I can't remember eng, had you picked Belmont on your podcast?

[mu03eng]

I can't remember eng, had you picked Belmont on your podcast?

Yes, we both picked Belmont to win.....too much experience to overcome.

[MuMark]

Kenpom had Belmont as favored and a far better loss than any of the other upsets FWIW

How could Ken Pom have Belmont as a favorite before the game when after the game he still has MU rated higher and MU was at home?
http://kenpom.com

[mu03eng]

How could Ken Pom have Belmont as a favorite before the game when after the game he still has MU rated higher and MU was at home?
http://kenpom.com

It's the way the numbers work.....he has us beating Iowa 72-71 on Thursday(53%) even though Iowa is ranked 35 and we're 53.  Plus the first game was off of last year's numbers minus the players leaving plus a blanket estimate for freshmen.

[MuMark]

But MU is at home. If it was at Iowa then Iowa would be favored in his system to win.

All I'm saying is it makes no sense if you have 1 team rated higher then another team...(and the higher rated team is at home) for his system to predict a win by the lower rated team.

He is essentially saying disregard my system at least early in the year.

It would be different if it was vegas and the bets determine who the favorite is.

[mu03eng]

But MU is at home. If it was at Iowa then Iowa would be favored in his system to win.

All I'm saying is it makes no sense if you have 1 team rated higher then another team...(and the higher rated team is at home) for his system to predict a win by the lower rated team.

He is essentially saying disregard my system at least early in the year.

It would be different if it was vegas and the bets determine who the favorite is.

No it doesn't because match-ups around the four factors matter in KenPom not just blind rankings.  So if you match-up poorly enough(i.e. you have a weak offense, they have a strong defense) with a lower rated opponent you can lose to that opponent.  Additionally, the rankings are projections how teams will do against their schedule, so by the end of the year Belmont might be ranked higher than us which means your objection would be null.

[brewcity77]

Kenpom had Belmont as favored and a far better loss than any of the other upsets FWIW

Pomeroy didn't have Belmont favored. Check the graph. Marquette's initial win probability was 77.1%. If I remember right, he had us winning by 6. Unless he wrote an article somewhere else where he went against his system, he absolutely, positively did not have Belmont favored to beat Marquette. We were unquestionably the favorite in that game.

http://kenpom.com/winprob.php?g=114

[brandx]

Va Tech latest upset victim, to Alabama State.
UCLA loses to Monmouth
GTown to Radford
MU to Belmont
NC State to William & Mary by 16.
Wisconsin to W Illinois

All at home.

Don't remember this many upsets the first weekend ever...

I think this is a trend we will see more of in the future. Usually - and I haven't checked all the rosters here - these small schools that pull upsets are loaded with veterans who have played together. The bigger schools are usually younger and more inexperienced - think Marquette where there were only 3 guys on the team that had ever played a game in a MU uniform. UW is another example. Brown, Happ, Iverson, Thomas, Showalter - all guys that are either freshman or getting their first taste of extended minutes.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think this is a trend we will see more of in the future. Usually - and I haven't checked all the rosters here - these small schools that pull upsets are loaded with veterans who have played together. The bigger schools are usually younger and more inexperienced - think Marquette where there were only 3 guys on the team that had ever played a game in a MU uniform. UW is another example. Brown, Happ, Iverson, Thomas, Showalter - all guys that are either freshman or getting their first taste of extended minutes.

Western Illinois is a pretty veteran team. Only lost one starter off last year's squad. But it was a squad that finished sub 300 last season. I picked them to finish 2nd to last in the summit.

[Benny B]

KenPom is a predictive model; it is not a qualitative analysis model.  In other words, teams are not ranked based on what they've done, they are slotted according to what they're projected to do.

In laymen's terms... what the model said (or how the teams did) yesterday, the day before, the day before, etc. makes no difference; also, you cannot use the model as a bellwether to determine how "good" or "bad" teams are.  The only thing that matters is what the model says right now about the team's next performance.

[CTWarrior]

...think Marquette where there were only 3 guys on the team that had ever played a game in a MU uniform...

They also said this several times during the TV broadcast, but there were four (Johnson, Wilson, Cohen and Fischer).  It doesn't take away from your point, which is correct and valid.  I just thought it was odd that they kept saying that.  I guess they meant guys that played a full season, but they kept saying players "who wore a Marquette uniform last season".

[Lennys Tap]

Pomeroy didn't have Belmont favored. Check the graph. Marquette's initial win probability was 77.1%. If I remember right, he had us winning by 6.

IIRC he had us winning by 8.

[brandx]

They also said this several times during the TV broadcast, but there were four (Johnson, Wilson, Cohen and Fischer).  It doesn't take away from your point, which is correct and valid.  I just thought it was odd that they kept saying that.  I guess they meant guys that played a full season, but they kept saying players "who wore a Marquette uniform last season".

Thanks for the correction, CT.

I should have known better.

[brewcity77]

IIRC he had us winning by 8.

May well have been, but either way, Pomeroy definitely had us projected to win that game. And despite the loss, his model would still have us winning that game today.

[Tums Festival]

They also said this several times during the TV broadcast, but there were four (Johnson, Wilson, Cohen and Fischer).  It doesn't take away from your point, which is correct and valid.  I just thought it was odd that they kept saying that.  I guess they meant guys that played a full season, but they kept saying players "who wore a Marquette uniform last season".

I think they said there were only three players that are on this year's that were in uniform for MU at the start of last season.

[MuMark]

May well have been, but either way, Pomeroy definitely had us projected to win that game. And despite the loss, his model would still have us winning that game today.

Thanks Brew......just didn't make sense for pomeroy to have Belmont as the favorite when looking at his current rankings.

Anonymous Eagle says the actual prediction was 76-68 MU.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Southern won at Miss St on Monday.