Henry Draft Stock Article - ESPN

[Dawson Rental]

I'm pretty sure Noah was considered a potential #1 pick when he decided to stay at Florida to go for another title.

Thank God, he did.  The next year, he dropped all the way to ninth in the draft.  That's the only way the Bulls could have gotten him.

If Milwaukee had the number one pick (I get that its not likely)  would they take Henry, given that they have Jabari and Giannis?

[Ellenson Guerrero]

Why don't we just enjoy this year while we have HE and assume that he'll be gone.  This is the downside of getting top rated recruits; you can't get too greedy.

[Brewtown Andy]

This has been discussed before. The rookie wages will stay the same.

Not to mention, a player's rookie contract is not where a player makes his money. It's his second contract and beyond. The quicker a player gets to that, the more money he makes in his career.

If he stayed, he'd make $0.00 next year ('16-'17) and then make maybe an extra $200K for the next 2 years ('16-'18, '18-'19) assuming his draft stock goes slightly up (not a whole lot of room to go up when you're already a top 10 pick). Then in '19-'20, he'd continue with his "small" rookie contract instead of being able to cash in big time. That could be a net negative of about $17M.

So by staying, you lose out on, say, $2M next year, gain back $400K the following 2 years, and then lose out on maybe $17M the 3rd year. So, if you want to take the money and run, you absolutely leave college ASAP.

I find it hard to believe that the rookie money is going to be frozen in place with the cap increases.

[4everwarriors]

Let's see, drivin' a Ferrari vs Ford Fusion, livin' in a dorm vs da 6000 sq ft. high rise bachelor pad, wearin' Brioni vs Kirkland, Rolex vs Swatch, Prada vs DSW, dry aged Kobe vs Mickey D's. Oh yeah and intact ACL vs reattached ACL. Tough choice hey?

[wadesworld]

I find it hard to believe that the rookie money is going to be frozen in place with the cap increases.

There was an article shared here some time ago saying the rookie deals would go unchanged. But let's pretend they don't. So if he stays another year he loses out on the $2M he'd make in the first year of his rookie contract and then over the next 2 years he'd make, say, an extra $4M? So after '18-'19 Henry's at minus $2M. But then instead of being on the final year of his rookie contract at generously, say, $7M if it jumps that much based on where he'd be drafted. If he left right away, he might be signing a contract worth $20M/year if he can be even close to as productive as a guy like John Henson (not asking a TON, but also not bad, and given that I think you'll see GMs thinking Henry will have a higher ceiling at that point of his career than what GMs see John as having now). So, at a minimum, he's setting himself back by $13M that year and you're at the very least $11M back on your potential earnings in your career.

Shred your knee as a sophomore and, well, you're minus a whole lot of money.

[RushmoreAcademy]

Where's the Ron Paul meme at a time like this?

[mu03eng]

There was an article shared here some time ago saying the rookie deals would go unchanged. But let's pretend they don't. So if he stays another year he loses out on the $2M he'd make in the first year of his rookie contract and then over the next 2 years he'd make, say, an extra $4M? So after '18-'19 Henry's at minus $2M. But then instead of being on the final year of his rookie contract at generously, say, $7M if it jumps that much based on where he'd be drafted. If he left right away, he might be signing a contract worth $20M/year if he can be even close to as productive as a guy like John Henson (not asking a TON, but also not bad, and given that I think you'll see GMs thinking Henry will have a higher ceiling at that point of his career than what GMs see John as having now). So, at a minimum, he's setting himself back by $13M that year and you're at the very least $11M back on your potential earnings in your career.

Shred your knee as a sophomore and, well, you're minus a whole lot of money.

Two things to consider:  he can take insurance out on a significant injury(probably should for this year as well) and while the 2nd contract is the important thing to think about, the timing of that contract is critical.

There will be a lot of players re-upping for one season at the end of this year like Lebron(my prediction) looking for the max contracts when the cap jumps in 2017.  That means a lot of expiring contracts in 2020 and 2021 when Henry would be looking for his 2nd contract if he left after his sophomore year.  So in theory the 2nd contract after sophomore year could be more lucrative than after his freshmen year (lot of dead cap money with the new Cap contracts)

However, I think if it boils down to money he goes this year (assuming he is ranked top 5).  If money isn't the primary drive there is enough of an argument to be made that he can have his cake and eat it to(great money after while playing with his brother/teammates/win championship).

Can't wait for the season to start and see how it all works out.

[MomofMUltiples]

There was an article shared here some time ago saying the rookie deals would go unchanged. But let's pretend they don't. So if he stays another year he loses out on the $2M he'd make in the first year of his rookie contract and then over the next 2 years he'd make, say, an extra $4M? So after '18-'19 Henry's at minus $2M. But then instead of being on the final year of his rookie contract at generously, say, $7M if it jumps that much based on where he'd be drafted. If he left right away, he might be signing a contract worth $20M/year if he can be even close to as productive as a guy like John Henson (not asking a TON, but also not bad, and given that I think you'll see GMs thinking Henry will have a higher ceiling at that point of his career than what GMs see John as having now). So, at a minimum, he's setting himself back by $13M that year and you're at the very least $11M back on your potential earnings in your career.

Shred your knee as a sophomore and, well, you're minus a whole lot of money.

What that article actually said is that the rookie scale set for 2016 draftees would not rise with the cap.  But the rookie scale would potentially be increased in the new collective bargaining agreement, setting up a situation where 2017 draftees could be making more than 2016 second-years.

That said, it's Henry's decision to make and none of us have a right to question his sanity or his loyalty whichever way he chooses..

Why don't we just enjoy this year while we have HE and assume that he'll be gone.  This is the downside of getting top rated recruits; you can't get too greedy.

FIFY

[wadesworld]

What that article actually said is that the rookie scale set for 2016 draftees would not rise with the cap.  But the rookie scale would potentially be increased in the new collective bargaining agreement, setting up a situation where 2017 draftees could be making more than 2016 second-years.

That said, it's Henry's decision to make and none of us have a right to question his sanity or his loyalty whichever way he chooses..

FIFY

Got it.  That makes sense.  I guess my point is that if Henry (or any basketball player) wants to maximize their career earnings, their best option is to get to the NBA as soon as possible.  Even if they  might make a few more million dollars a year for the first couple of years, the $0.00 they make the years before they go to the NBA make a huge difference and the years that you're already in your second contract also make a huge difference compared to finishing out your rookie contract, even if it is a higher paying rookie contract.

[ChicosBailBonds]

This Chad Ford?  http://deadspin.com/sources-espn-really-has-no-way-to-tell-who-changed-dra-1681858027

[Marcus92]

Why does anyone care about what Henry Ellenson does after this season BEFORE he's played a single game?

Or is this just another example of needing something to talk about because there's no actual basketball to talk about yet?

[The Lens]

Why does anyone care about what Henry Ellenson does after this season BEFORE he's played a single game?

Or is this just another example of needing something to talk about because there's no actual basketball to talk about yet?

His 30 or so games at MU are just 1 part of how NBA scouts will evaluate him.  His time with Team USA, prominent shoe camps, his AAU play and some HS games all factor in.  NBA teams don't need to see HE in the Big East to know where they want to draft him.

[The Lens]

This Chad Ford?  http://deadspin.com/sources-espn-really-has-no-way-to-tell-who-changed-dra-1681858027

Obviously Chad Ford's Mock of HE at 7 is waaaaaay too high.  So instead lets reference your friends at DraftExpress; they have HE at 8.

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016/

[mug644]

His 30 or so games at MU are just 1 part of how NBA scouts will evaluate him.  His time with Team USA, prominent shoe camps, his AAU play and some HS games all factor in.  NBA teams don't need to see HE in the Big East to know where they want to draft him.

Well, they might like to see how the year goes, to see if he is continuing on that progression of potential that the NBA draft seems to be based on. And, this year puts all those past games behind him, literally and figuratively. But, yes, this year is just part of the overall package of evaluation.

[Class71]

It is great to see the excitement about Henry but why worry if he will stay?  All moments  of  trimuph are fleeting so enjoy them when you can. To worry about the future destroys the success of the present.

[The Lens]

It is great to see the excitement about Henry but why worry if he will stay?  All moments  of  trimuph are fleeting so enjoy them when you can. To worry about the future destroys the success of the present.

I'm in a wedding at the Ritz in Naples this weekend and all I can think about is making sure my Fox Sports Go streams Belmont.  I don't think you need to tell me to enjoy the present. 

[4everwarriors]

Sophia there gives great massages. May wanna check her out if she's still employed, hey?

[Benny B]

Got it.  That makes sense.  I guess my point is that if Henry (or any basketball player) wants to maximize their career earnings, their best option is to get to the NBA as soon as possible.  Even if they  might make a few more million dollars a year for the first couple of years, the $0.00 they make the years before they go to the NBA make a huge difference and the years that you're already in your second contract also make a huge difference compared to finishing out your rookie contract, even if it is a higher paying rookie contract.

Of course, this would be true if life existed in a vacuum.

I can't think of anyone off hand, but has anyone who was an amazing talent and projected lottery pick left early, and lived up to the hype on draft day ever struggle just enough in training camp that he was a borderline survivor on cut day only to watch his career go down the crapper from there?

"Setting the tone early" is not only applicable in game situations, it's also applicable to one's career.  Someone could be an otherwise all-star caliber player, but a bad rookie campaign could do enough psychological damage to torpedo one's career. Getting your first taste of adversity in the league isn't necessarily bad, but it could be potentially damaging for some.

So I would say no, getting to the NBA as fast as you can isn't always the way to maximize career earnings.  You need to be ready, both on the floor and in your head.  Hell, look at JFB... granted, he wasn't a lottery pick, but do you think he'd have a max contract in his pocket right now had he left after his junior year?

I'm not saying that any of the above applies to Henry, but especially when "money itself" is the goal, it's not always fruitful to skip the line.  If "money now" is the goal, then sure, declare as soon as you can.

[mug644]

Of course, this would be true if life existed in a vacuum.

I can't think of anyone off hand, but has anyone who was an amazing talent and projected lottery pick left early, and lived up to the hype on draft day ever struggle just enough in training camp that he was a borderline survivor on cut day only to watch his career go down the crapper from there?

"Setting the tone early" is not only applicable in game situations, it's also applicable to one's career.  Someone could be an otherwise all-star caliber player, but a bad rookie campaign could do enough psychological damage to torpedo one's career. Getting your first taste of adversity in the league isn't necessarily bad, but it could be potentially damaging for some.

So I would say no, getting to the NBA as fast as you can isn't always the way to maximize career earnings.  You need to be ready, both on the floor and in your head.  Hell, look at JFB... granted, he wasn't a lottery pick, but do you think he'd have a max contract in his pocket right now had he left after his junior year?

I'm not saying that any of the above applies to Henry, but especially when "money itself" is the goal, it's not always fruitful to skip the line.  If "money now" is the goal, then sure, declare as soon as you can.

Adam Morrison might be close to what you're thinking. Left early, drafted #3, doesn't really live up to the hype and loses starting job during rookie year. Never does much of anything (but also suffers an ACL injury).

[wadesworld]

Of course, this would be true if life existed in a vacuum.

I can't think of anyone off hand, but has anyone who was an amazing talent and projected lottery pick left early, and lived up to the hype on draft day ever struggle just enough in training camp that he was a borderline survivor on cut day only to watch his career go down the crapper from there?

"Setting the tone early" is not only applicable in game situations, it's also applicable to one's career.  Someone could be an otherwise all-star caliber player, but a bad rookie campaign could do enough psychological damage to torpedo one's career. Getting your first taste of adversity in the league isn't necessarily bad, but it could be potentially damaging for some.

So I would say no, getting to the NBA as fast as you can isn't always the way to maximize career earnings.  You need to be ready, both on the floor and in your head.  Hell, look at JFB... granted, he wasn't a lottery pick, but do you think he'd have a max contract in his pocket right now had he left after his junior year?

I'm not saying that any of the above applies to Henry, but especially when "money itself" is the goal, it's not always fruitful to skip the line.  If "money now" is the goal, then sure, declare as soon as you can.

I don't think Jimmy would have a maximum contract right now if he would've left after his junior year because Jimmy wasn't anywhere close to ready for the NBA and wouldn't have been selected in the draft at all.  It's much harder to go from undrafted and playing overseas to getting a spot in the NBA.  Getting into the NBA is the toughest part.  Once you're there it's a lot easier to find a role and do it well.  Just ask Novak and, heck, Diener, who both made it to their 2nd contracts without doing a whole lot of anything in the NBA (outside of Novak's time in NY, which was already his 2nd contract).

If you aren't good enough to make it in the league then scouts and GMs are going to figure that out the longer you're in college.  If you're projected in the lottery, the best way to maximize your career earnings is to get to the NBA as fast as possible.  Practicing against the best with the best coaches every day for as long as you'd like is much better for your development as a player than dominating in a limited amount of time on the college level.

How many potential top 10-15 picks come back to college and actually improve their draft stock?  Pretty much all of those Florida players dropped.  Dominic James never had an NBA career because he came back.  Etc., etc., etc.  If a player with lottery hype has holes in their game that are going to prevent them from becoming at the very least solid role players for multiple contracts, those holes will be figured out well before they even reach the NBA and it will only hurt their career earnings.

Now yes, if Haniif Cheatham tried to leave after this season to enter the NBA Draft, well, he's taking the maybe 5% chance of ever playing in the NBA and turning it into a 0.00000000001% chance.  But I meant players who are a lock to be first round picks.  Very, very few players who at least have the physical tools to compete and progress with the best players in the world are going to progress more in college than they will on an NBA roster.