Starting line-up factual discussion

[mu03eng]

I've unfortunately waded through some mess on the board today, but one thing stuck out to me from a relevant discussion standpoint.

I've seen a ton of complaining about the starting line-up not getting enough points for the team, what a waste to have the starters not score enough, etc.  Have people actually looked at the starting line-up and minutes played?

Food for discussion.  I went through the box score, and determined that all 5 starters played together the following times:
-1st half from opening tip until the 17:12 mark and then not again the rest of the half
-2nd half from start of the half until the 18:31 mark and then not again the rest of the game


So in total the starters played 4 minutes and 17 seconds of actual game time together out of a possible 50 minutes or less than 9%.  The starting line-up score 4 points out of 80, but as Ners points out...not enough run time to allow the stats to really be relevant like that.

I'm not saying the starting line-up is good or even average.  However, I don't think we can say well start different players and we're good.  The starters didn't play together at all.  I do think Burton needed some more minutes and Jake less minutes, but lets not pretend this is a lineup issue.  Things like Jamil Wilson not playing to his potential are more responsible for this season than any lineup decisions.

I do think on Saturday we should see Burton for no less than 20 minutes.  Dawson I'd be for more minutes but his handle is too loose right now and I think St John's chews him up with their pressure.  I'd also like to see at least 10 minutes of JJJ instead of Jake...nothing at stake at this point.

[NersEllenson]

Thankfully Buzz was practically forced to take Juan out just 1:30 into second half as he got off to a really rough start...but generally of late Buzz has been giving the first 4:00 segment of the 1st and 2nd half to the starters.

As I posted in a different thread on Pomroy's player rankings - we start 4 guys defined as limited roles and role players.  

Need to max minutes for these guys, the best 3 players on the team:

Gardner
Mayo
Burton

They all should play 30-35, and by no means EVER less than 25 minutes per game if stamina issues are a concern for Burton/Gardner

Then:
Jamil - 30 minutes
Jake - 25 minutes

Lastly, flip PG minutes:
Dawson 25
Derrick 15

Team would look radically different and much better.  Otule gets 10 minutes per game as it makes sense..

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I feel like Otule is more valuable then Gardner in some games though. Hopefully Buzz can tinker with the lineup vs. St. Johns so we have something solid for the BE tourney.

[mu03eng]

Thankfully Buzz was practically forced to take Juan out just 1:30 into second half as he got off to a really rough start...but generally of late Buzz has been giving the first 4:00 segment of the 1st and 2nd half to the starters.

As I posted in a different thread on Pomroy's player rankings - we start 4 guys defined as limited roles and role players.  

Need to max minutes for these guys, the best 3 players on the team:

Gardner
Mayo
Burton

They all should play 30-35, and by no means EVER less than 25 minutes per game if stamina issues are a concern for Burton/Gardner

Then:
Jamil - 30 minutes
Jake - 25 minutes

Lastly, flip PG minutes:
Dawson 25
Derrick 15

Team would look radically different and much better.  Otule gets 10 minutes per game as it makes sense..

Lets ignore the PG thing for now.  Gardner and Mayo are getting max minutes now so really you have no complaint there right? 

Jamil is getting max minutes, in fact more than you want and I'm ok with your change so let's say those minutes go to Burton(which I agree with).  Where do Jake's minutes from 36 to 25 go?  Burton should be getting more minutes but there is NO way he can do 30-35 minutes right now.  Look at the St John's game, he was gassed after 10 minutes.  Burton is a 20 min max guy right now (not limited by talent).

Gardner 30-35
Mayo 30-35
Burton 20
Jamil 30
Otule 10
Jake 25 (don't like it but I think this is too low, but for the sake of discussion)
PG 40 (separate discussion)


That leaves 5-15 minutes for other players....who are you distributing that to?  I'd argue for 10 for STJ and give the remainder to Jake at this point in the season.

[mu03eng]

Lastly, flip PG minutes:
Dawson 25
Derrick 15

I think we are going to have to agree to disagree again.  I'd like to see Dawson's minutes go up but there ain't no way he is ready for 25 minutes a game especially because that means Mayo has to defend the other team's best guard meaning that 35 minutes he is getting are "harder" minutes than he is getting now.  I'd be willing to go 25/15 or 30/10 Derrick to Dawson depending on match ups but that's it.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

As I posted in a different thread on Pomroy's player rankings - we start 4 guys defined as limited roles and role players.  

Ners, you keep bringing up this stat and you are misusing it. The possession% stat does not measure how good a player is. All it does is track which players shoot, score, and turnover the ball the most. All this stat says about Burton is that when he gets the ball, he is going to shoot or turn it over. Burton is labeled as a "go to guy" because typically the teams superstar will do most of the shooting. Burton gets it because he is utilized little but when he is in, he shoots.

It's a fine stat to use. But it is for determining which players the offense likes to go to, not who is better than the other.

That being said, here is my amended opinion for minutes distribution

Jamil 35 minutes (if he's actually playing to his level)
Mayo 35 minutes
Gardner 30 minutes (if he can do it without getting gassed)
Jake 30 minutes
Derrick 25 minutes
Burton 20 minutes
Dawson 15 minutes
Otule 10 minutes

Anderson, Taylor, and Johnson can be used if necessary but I don't think they should be in the regular rotation. Anderson is overmatched at this point, Taylor is still nursing an injury I believe, and I don't know what's up with Johnson.

[brandx]

I think we are going to have to agree to disagree again.  I'd like to see Dawson's minutes go up but there ain't no way he is ready for 25 minutes a game especially because that means Mayo has to defend the other team's best guard meaning that 35 minutes he is getting are "harder" minutes than he is getting now.  I'd be willing to go 25/15 or 30/10 Derrick to Dawson depending on match ups but that's it.

Don't really agree about the "hard" minutes. These guys are, or at least should be in top physical shape. They will play hours at a time in the gym. Bryce Cotton has averaged over 40 minutes a game this year. He plays that many or more even when he doesn't get a night off on defense (guarding Derrick).

I feel bad for all the criticism Derrick has taken. It's a coaches job to put players in a position to succeed. Playing Derrick 30+ minutes every game does not do that.

[NersEllenson]

Ners, you keep bringing up this stat and you are misusing it. The possession% stat does not measure how good a player is. All it does is track which players shoot, score, and turnover the ball the most. All this stat says about Burton is that when he gets the ball, he is going to shoot or turn it over. Burton is labeled as a "go to guy" because typically the teams superstar will do most of the shooting. Burton gets it because he is utilized little but when he is in, he shoots.

It's a fine stat to use. But it is for determining which players the offense likes to go to, not who is better than the other.

I think you misunderstand the stat as well TAMU - because you can go right down the line on every team...and there is no disputing Pomroy's classifications align perfectly who the team's best players are.

Would you agree Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood are Duke's best?  Doug McDermott Creighton's best?  Russ Smith Lville's best? Kaminsky and Dekker Wisconsin's best?  CJ Fair Syracuse's best?  Shabazz Napier UCONN"S best?  Bryce Cotton Providence's best?  Who is Milwaukee's Best??  Deonte!!

Your best players are guys who can put the ball in the bucket, and can get shots off...and I'm pretty sure if these "go to guys" missed a high percentage of their shots..they'd be classified in a lower class

[Boozemon Barro]

It's a fact that against good teams we usually spot them a 6 to 10 point lead at the beginning of each half before we sub in our good players. It's beyond pointless to trot those guys out there every game, and even worse that Derrick and Jake actually play starter's minutes.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think you misunderstand the stat as well TAMU - because you can go right down the line on every team...and there is no disputing Pomroy's classifications align perfectly who the team's best players are.

Would you agree Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood are Duke's best?  Doug McDermott Creighton's best?  Russ Smith Lville's best? Kaminsky and Dekker Wisconsin's best?  CJ Fair Syracuse's best?  Shabazz Napier UCONN"S best?  Bryce Cotton Providence's best?  Who is Milwaukee's Best??  Deonte!!

Your best players are guys who can put the ball in the bucket, and can get shots off...and I'm pretty sure if these "go to guys" missed a high percentage of their shots..they'd be classified in a lower class

I agree with all those being the best on their respective teams. Your best player should be shooting the most and have the ball most. In our case, we have a bench player who loves to shoot when he gets the ball. And I love that! We are missing it on this team. But that doesn't translate out to being the best player.

[BM1090]

It's a fact that against good teams we usually spot them a 6 to 10 point lead at the beginning of each half before we sub in our good players. It's beyond pointless to trot those guys out there every game, and even worse that Derrick and Jake actually play starter's minutes.

This isn't a fact. It was true against Georgetown and providence. The starters were even @ nova. The starters had leads early over DePaul and Creighton.

That said, I don't agree with the starting lineup. But it hasn't been a huge issue

[akmarq]

I think you misunderstand the stat as well TAMU - because you can go right down the line on every team...and there is no disputing Pomroy's classifications align perfectly who the team's best players are.

Would you agree Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood are Duke's best?  Doug McDermott Creighton's best?  Russ Smith Lville's best? Kaminsky and Dekker Wisconsin's best?  CJ Fair Syracuse's best?  Shabazz Napier UCONN"S best?  Bryce Cotton Providence's best?  Who is Milwaukee's Best??  Deonte!!

Your best players are guys who can put the ball in the bucket, and can get shots off...and I'm pretty sure if these "go to guys" missed a high percentage of their shots..they'd be classified in a lower class

I don't know how Player Rating is calculated since I don't subscribe to KenPom. Hitting more shots would not change a player's possession% as that statistic does not measure success/failure of shots. Is offensive efficiency included in the player rating 'description?'

[mu03eng]

It's a fact that against good teams we usually spot them a 6 to 10 point lead at the beginning of each half before we sub in our good players. It's beyond pointless to trot those guys out there every game, and even worse that Derrick and Jake actually play starter's minutes.

Gonna leave the bolded there for you to think about.

Second, the starters play very few minutes, if we didn't change the amount they played but instead who was announced at the beginning of the game, would the results be different?

[mattyv1908]

Gonna leave the bolded there for you to think about.

Second, the starters play very few minutes, if we didn't change the amount they played but instead who was announced at the beginning of the game, would the results be different?

I do for a few reasons.

1.  Todd Mayo should be starting and playing 35 minutes.  I'd rest him strategically by getting him out of the game on a whistle prior to the 8 minute TV time out of each half.  Other than that he should be in the game.

2.  I'd start Burton over Thomas.  I'd still play Thomas for 25-30 minutes mind you but Burton should be playing 8-10 minutes a half and I think he's the one player that you can directly insert into a game and get production.  That's missing in our starting line up.  I'd get Thomas and Gardner in at the 16 minute mark and get Otule and Burton out.  I'd also get Burton back in around the 10 minute mark to spell Jamil Wilson.  He's too good offensively to not get 16-20 smart minutes.

3.  I think one of the biggest issues with the starting line up is not just it's lack of scoring, it's the lack of team speed.  With that five on the court it's a slow pace.  I think a faster paced, faster starting five that can push tempo can be a welcome change to some of our offensive woes.

We're 17-13 and need to win the BET to get the NCAAT.  Could a few tweaks be justified at this point?  I think so.

[mu03eng]

I do for a few reasons.

1.  Todd Mayo should be starting and playing 35 minutes.  I'd rest him strategically by getting him out of the game on a whistle prior to the 8 minute TV time out of each half.  Other than that he should be in the game.

2.  I'd start Burton over Thomas.  I'd still play Thomas for 25-30 minutes mind you but Burton should be playing 8-10 minutes a half and I think he's the one player that you can directly insert into a game and get production.  That's missing in our starting line up.  I'd get Thomas and Gardner in at the 16 minute mark and get Otule and Burton out.  I'd also get Burton back in around the 10 minute mark to spell Jamil Wilson.  He's too good offensively to not get 16-20 smart minutes.

3.  I think one of the biggest issues with the starting line up is not just it's lack of scoring, it's the lack of team speed.  With that five on the court it's a slow pace.  I think a faster paced, faster starting five that can push tempo can be a welcome change to some of our offensive woes.

We're 17-13 and need to win the BET to get the NCAAT.  Could a few tweaks be justified at this point?  I think so.

I'm fine with tweaks and support ones like more minutes for Mayo and Burton.  My point though is we gotta get over this starter concept.  If the fivesome(DWil, Jake, Juan, Jamil, Otule) plays 2:14 seconds at the start of the game together or plays together from 8:34 to 6:20 in the first half it doesn't matter.

So if we want to argue those 5 don't play together ever...reasonable
If we want to argue players need different minutes....reasonable
Arguing whether Burton starts over Juan but gets the minutes they should get....silly

[jesmu84]

I do for a few reasons.

1.  Todd Mayo should be starting and playing 35 minutes.  I'd rest him strategically by getting him out of the game on a whistle prior to the 8 minute TV time out of each half.  Other than that he should be in the game.

2.  I'd start Burton over Thomas.  I'd still play Thomas for 25-30 minutes mind you but Burton should be playing 8-10 minutes a half and I think he's the one player that you can directly insert into a game and get production.  That's missing in our starting line up.  I'd get Thomas and Gardner in at the 16 minute mark and get Otule and Burton out.  I'd also get Burton back in around the 10 minute mark to spell Jamil Wilson.  He's too good offensively to not get 16-20 smart minutes.

3.  I think one of the biggest issues with the starting line up is not just it's lack of scoring, it's the lack of team speed.  With that five on the court it's a slow pace.  I think a faster paced, faster starting five that can push tempo can be a welcome change to some of our offensive woes.

We're 17-13 and need to win the BET to get the NCAAT.  Could a few tweaks be justified at this point?  I think so.

Good post matty. I agree with all of these. I might even suggest more minutes for Burton over Jamil, in the case when Jamil isn't being aggressive.

Also, 20/20 for Derrick/Dawson.

[Class71]

Problem is bigger than one or two games. We should have been player our scorers more, much earlier in the season to develop consistency and better defensive skills. It is a bit odd that we are willing to let those with good defensive skills develop an offense but not the other way around. Got the with effort concept but we need to respect good offense as well as D.