Tournament Bid Threshold

[jsheim]

Thru the magic of Excel and this website: http://warrennolan.com/
here are some key end-of-year stats on Teams that got At-Large Bids in 2013 to the NCAA tourney:

So, except for Louisville, subtract 1 from the losses column to get the pre-tourney loss total. Also need to subtract tourney wins from the Wins column...didn't have that.

The key idea here is that Marquette has a high bar to get in with 13 losses...but its possible.

Note: Villanova's website says 20 wins but I think they're counting a non-div1 game.

Name	Wins	Losses	RPI Rank	SOS Rank	AP Poll	Coaches Poll	Seed in Region
Villanova	19	14	54	20			9
Minnesota	21	13	30	5		40	11
Illinois	22	13	38	11		34	7
Oklahoma	20	12	44	27			10
Colorado	21	12	43	24			10
California	21	12	52	34		30	12
Cincinnati	22	12	49	23			10
Wisconsin	23	12	31	13	18	22	5
Iowa State	23	12	41	33		32	10
Boise State	19	11	50	59			13
San Diego State	21	11	35	21			7
Missouri	23	11	42	50			9
North Carolina	24	11	19	9	27	29	8
North Carolina State	24	11	37	36			8
UNLV	24	10	29	22	28		5
Temple	24	10	40	53		36	9
La Salle	24	10	34	54		24	13
UCLA	25	10	32	25	24	39	6
Notre Dame	25	10	39	48	23	40	7
Syracuse	30	10	10	4	16	3	4
Oklahoma State	24	9	28	41	17	27	5
Colorado State	24	9	20	32	34	35	8
Pittsburgh	24	9	46	66	20	36	8
Michigan State	26	9	6	2	9	13	3
Marquette	26	9	13	8	15	11	3
Butler	26	9	21	28	29	26	6
Virginia Commonwealth	27	9	26	35	26	23	5
Wichita State	30	9	18	39	35	4	9
Kansas State	26	8	23	44	12	20	4
Arizona	27	8	16	19	21	14	6
Florida	29	8	8	16	14	9	3
Michigan	30	8	11	14	10	2	4
Georgetown	25	7	15	18	8	17	2
Saint Mary's College	27	7	25	73	32	33	11
Indiana	29	7	12	12	4	7	1
Middle Tennessee	28	6	33	128			11
Duke	30	6	1	1	6	5	2

[barfolomew]

Thanks for the perspective on last year.
Pretty typical that only three at large bids went to teams with an RPI in the 50's. MU has some work to do there, but fortunately, every opponent remaining on our schedule except DePaul is ahead of us in RPI standings. Gotta go to work.

[Jay Bee]

Please update this analysis using adjusted win-loss

[77ncaachamps]

No way with 13 losses.

No key OOC wins will pop this MU bubble if they get that high in the L's.

[wardle2wade]

No way with 13 losses.

No key OOC wins will pop this MU bubble if they get that high in the L's.

13 losses (aka 5-2 finish) means MU would have added 4 more quality wins (pick 4 from X, Gtown, @prov, creighton, @nova).  You should familiarize yourself with the other bubble teams.  Lot of flaws and bad losses.

[San Diego Warrior]

Wouldn't 13 losses be a 4-3 finish?

[WarriorFan]

Gotta get RPI into the 40's.

Can anyone calculate what that will take based on our remaining opponents?

Is it possible?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Gotta get RPI into the 40's.

Can anyone calculate what that will take based on our remaining opponents?

Is it possible?

Already been done in several threads.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=41143.msg567196#msg567196

[MarquetteDano]

Wouldn't 13 losses be a 4-3 finish?

People assuming a loss in the BET.  If we don't lose in the BET, we are in the tourney anyways.

[jsheim]

Please update this analysis using adjusted win-loss

Jay Bee, you're right about that....I was hoping to easily get pre-ncaa-tourney numbers...that gives the best feel.  Could only find the end-of-year numbers that were easily cut/paste/reformat to the table and I don't have the time to remove tourney wins for every team.

I can say the RPIs are pretty right-on and the point is (if you subtract 1 from the Losses column) that its pretty darn hard to get in with 13 losses....if you assume 1-loss in the BET and 2 losses left in the regular season....we're in real trouble unless our RPI zooms up...and others have calculated that won't happen.

We've got to beat Xavier and Creighton.

[willie warrior]

Go 5-2 puts at 19-12 with an RPI in low 50's. Won't get in with that, unless we win two in BEast tourney and then will be iffy. Of course with such a huge soft bubble this year, according to some "experts" with about 50 teams in that softie, who knows?

[PGsHeroes32]

Go 5-2 puts at 19-12 with an RPI in low 50's. Won't get in with that, unless we win two in BEast tourney and then will be iffy. Of course with such a huge soft bubble this year, according to some "experts" with about 50 teams in that softie, who knows?

Win 1 in BET with that and we are in and I don't think it is even the play in game.

Look at the bubble right now. Look at the records and RPI's of some that Lunardi has in front of us now.

[jsheim]

Win 1 in BET with that and we are in and I don't think it is even the play in game.

Look at the bubble right now. Look at the records and RPI's of some that Lunardi has in front of us now.

I like positive predictions...I'm hoping you are right. Still scared of two losses....will be at Xavier game and hope to make the Creighton game...got to get wins in both.

[Windyplayer]

Go 5-2 puts at 19-12 with an RPI in low 50's. Won't get in with that, unless we win two in BEast tourney and then will be iffy. Of course with such a huge soft bubble this year, according to some "experts" with about 50 teams in that softie, who knows?

Every time you assess the merits of a team making the tourney you have to consider its competition. You can't assess a team's chances in a vacuum then assess them again with the backdrop of this year's "bubble." The latter must necessarily be considered with the former. You should consult our guy, Einstein, he's a cool dude.  

[willie warrior]

Win 1 in BET with that and we are in and I don't think it is even the play in game.

Look at the bubble right now. Look at the records and RPI's of some that Lunardi has in front of us now.

Sorry Hayward, cannot agree--winning one BEast game means we also lose one--giving us a 20-13 record(based on going 5-2 in regular season). If you are right, great. Just cannot seeing getting in at 20-13. Many bubble teams out there.

[LAZER]

Sorry Hayward, cannot agree--winning one BEast game means we also lose one--giving us a 20-13 record(based on going 5-2 in regular season). If you are right, great. Just cannot seeing getting in at 20-13. Many bubble teams out there.

Many bubble teams out there and many of them aren't better than MU.