Seton Hall Stat Projection

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Alright ya'll. I have something new for you. Any of you who were on the ESPN boards last season may remember that I liked to post stat projections on how the teams we are playing should do. Basically, I take game statistics from games played at the same venue (home/away/neutral), the last 5 games, and the 5 games against most statistically similar defenses. I combine those stats together and from it am able to project what an "average" performance from each player would be. If they do better than the projected box score, they had an above average night. If they don't do as good, they had a below average score.

Take it for what it is worth. I am no sabermatician or basketball coach. I'm just a guy who likes tinkering with numbers.

Team: Seton Hall
Venue: Home
Last 5 games: @SJU (L), DPL (W), BUT (L), @XAV (W), @NOVA (L)
5 most statistically similar defenses: CREI (L), NOVA (L), @MARQ (L), @GTWN (W), @NOVA (L)
Starters:
PG: Sterling Gibbs 6"2 185 SO
SG: Fuquan Edwin 6"6 215 SR
SF: Brian Oliver 6"7 225 SR
PF: Brandon Mobley 6"9 215 JR
C: Gene Teague 6"9 270 SR
Reserves:
Jaren Sina 6"2 180 FR
Patrick Auda 6"9 235 JR
Haralds Karlis 6"6 230 JR
Stephane Manga 6"6 230 JR
Aaron Geramipoor 6"11 245 SR

Projected Box Score:
Gibbs   30   12   3   4   0   1   2   2   1   3
Edwin   28   15   4   2   0   3   2   2   2   5
Oliver    28   11   3   1   0   1   2   1   3   7
Teague   24   11   7   0   0   0   3   2   0   0
Sina           24   5   1   2   0   0   1   1   1   3
Auda           23   7   4   1   1   0   2   1   0   1
Mobley   21   6   4   0   1   0   3   1   0   2
Gerami   9   2   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   0
Karlis   7   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   1
Manga   6   4   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0
Totals   200   75   30   10   2   5   19   11   7   22

[madtownwarrior]

Did you take into account MU allowing for an opposing player to go off way beyond their statistical norm?