Starting Obsession

[Dr. Blackheart]

What examples are there of the extra possession not being the last possession?  If you ended up with more possessions in a game than the opponent, wouldn't that have to mean you have the ball at the end of the game?

EDIT: After I wrote this I'm starting to google about the mathematical definition of a possession in basketball... Are you referring to a possession as in Possessions = FGA - OffReb + TOV + (0.4 x FTA) ? 

Basically yes...I am sorry I am confusing people with my theoretical.  Let me try this again:

If MU wins a tip, depending how jump balls go throughout the game, at worst, MU would have the same number of possessions due to winning that tip as the other team.  At best, it would have one more as there was an odd number of jump balls in the game.

When I say extra possession due to a jump ball...I mean an example like this:  MU wins the tip and Xavier is awarded a jump ball in the first half.  MU again starts the second half with the ball as the arrow is in their favor.  There are no more jump balls.  So, to me any way, that extra possession due to a jump ball, occurred in the start of the 2nd half.

Now MU may piss away that possession...but it is an "extra" one...so on average, one extra point in the game.  That is why I say free money.

Sorry, still early for me.  Making mistakes and being cloudy.

[skianth16]

I get the idea of getting an extra possession by having Chris in there for the tip. But it seems like the big point that has been overlooked in the thread so far is that even if we gain an extra possession, if we have a less productive player on the floor for the possession, then is it even worth having?

The bigger consideration, in my eyes anyway, should be how the possible outcomes are affected by having a specific set of players on the floor. I haven't looked at this at all, but I would have to assume that Davante's +/- and turnover numbers look significantly better than Otule's.

So even though Chris is more likely to win the tip, I don't really know that that end up being an advantage given his lack of offensive production compared to Ox. I bet it's almost a complete wash if you look at it closely. Chris wins more tips, but has worse production. Davante wins (likely) no tips, but produces on offense.

[willie warrior]

I get the idea of getting an extra possession by having Chris in there for the tip. But it seems like the big point that has been overlooked in the thread so far is that even if we gain an extra possession, if we have a less productive player on the floor for the possession, then is it even worth having?

The bigger consideration, in my eyes anyway, should be how the possible outcomes are affected by having a specific set of players on the floor. I haven't looked at this at all, but I would have to assume that Davante's +/- and turnover numbers look significantly better than Otule's.

So even though Chris is more likely to win the tip, I don't really know that that end up being an advantage given his lack of offensive production compared to Ox. I bet it's almost a complete wash if you look at it closely. Chris wins more tips, but has worse production. Davante wins (likely) no tips, but produces on offense.

Exactly. Using the excuse that a guy is starting because he "Usually" wins the tip is weak. So lame it boggles.
Wonder what the all time stat is on won loss % for opening tip winners. Probably no such record kept. Besides so many countless other things impact the outcome.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Exactly. Using the excuse that a guy is starting because he "Usually" wins the tip is weak. So lame it boggles.
Wonder what the all time stat is on won loss % for opening tip winners. Probably no such record kept. Besides so many countless other things impact the outcome.

Listen, when Gardner can average more than 30 minutes, by all means play him for all 40.  He is averaging 24 now. Playing Chris four minutes until the first TV time out has other benefits besides winning a tip...many of which were stated here. Both are a handful, eroding the other team's bigs with fouls and energy...while keeping DG out of early foul trouble when officials are looking to set the style of play.  I would prefer they both start to be honest, along with Mayo. Ox is the offense and Chris is the defense.

Giving away a free possession is a side benefit and certainly not an "excuse".  Why give away free money?  The goal is to win every possession, including the tip.  Chris is going to play, why not start him?

[CTWarrior]

Listen, when Gardner can average more than 30 minutes, by all means play him for all 40.  He is averaging 24 now. Playing Chris four minutes until the first TV time out has other benefits besides winning a tip...many of which were stated here. Both are a handful, eroding the other team's bigs with fouls and energy...while keeping DG out of early foul trouble when officials are looking to set the style of play.  I would prefer they both start to be honest, along with Mayo. Ox is the offense and Chris is the defense.

Giving away a free possession is a side benefit and certainly not an "excuse".  Why give away free money?  The goal is to win every possession, including the tip.  Chris is going to play, why not start him?

As I stated a few times earlier in this thread, I don't believe that having Otule on the opening tip as opposed to Jamil Wilson (who would jump the tip if Gardner started over Otule) matters one bit in the grand scheme of things, but I agree with everything else.  If they're going to play x and y minutes regardless of who starts, and if Buzz thinks Otule starting helps keep Gardner out of foul trouble and softens up the opponent a little, its OK with me.

[willie warrior]

Listen, when Gardner can average more than 30 minutes, by all means play him for all 40.  He is averaging 24 now. Playing Chris four minutes until the first TV time out has other benefits besides winning a tip...many of which were stated here. Both are a handful, eroding the other team's bigs with fouls and energy...while keeping DG out of early foul trouble when officials are looking to set the style of play.  I would prefer they both start to be honest, along with Mayo. Ox is the offense and Chris is the defense.

Giving away a free possession is a side benefit and certainly not an "excuse".  Why give away free money?  The goal is to win every possession, including the tip.  Chris is going to play, why not start him?

You haven't given away a free possession, because you have the alternate possession rule. Yeah Chris is going to play so start him. Gardner is going to play so why not start him. Burton is going to play. so why not start him. taylr is going to play so why not start him. Mayo is going to play so why not start him. I get that logic.

[GooooMarquette]

Juan is our best offensive rebounder specifically and rebounder in general right now.  He also plays the best help side and perimeter defense on the team.

Jake is a different story, but he is still a very solid defender, especially when MU goes zone.

Yep.  Juan is averaging 5.0 rpg in just over 15 mpg.  His shooting percentage is also one of the highest in the regular rotation - far higher than Jamil, Todd, Jake and a few others.  Anyone who can't see why he starts isn't watching.

[PGsHeroes32]

Listen, when Gardner can average more than 30 minutes, by all means play him for all 40.  He is averaging 24 now. Playing Chris four minutes until the first TV time out has other benefits besides winning a tip...many of which were stated here. Both are a handful, eroding the other team's bigs with fouls and energy...while keeping DG out of early foul trouble when officials are looking to set the style of play.  I would prefer they both start to be honest, along with Mayo. Ox is the offense and Chris is the defense.

Giving away a free possession is a side benefit and certainly not an "excuse".  Why give away free money?  The goal is to win every possession, including the tip.  Chris is going to play, why not start him?

Problem is(while Davante is in a funk himself) all Chris is doing while "eroding" the fouls is turning the ball over with a catach...they pick up a foul.

Seriously, the guy has little assets aside from the opening tip. He's always on his ass. Can't catch. Can't hold on to the ball. Probably the worst rebounder on the team at 6 freaking 11.

[brewcity77]

Again, perception doesn't quite meet with reality and people see what they want to see. This year, Chris has been drawing fouls at a higher rate than Davante Gardner, and while he may not convert free throws at the same rate, Gardner's inefficiency at the line means the disparity hasn't been as great (about 19%) as you might expect. Chris is committing too many fouls, but he is still by far a net positive in terms of fouls drawn versus committed. CO's turnover rate of 20.7% isn't all that bad, nearly as good as Mayo and better than DeWil. He has a higher FG% than Gardner and his overall offensive rating is above average. He's been better on the offensive glass than Gardner and while he doesn't get a ton of defensive rebounds, his role in rebounding is more to box out to allow the rest of the team to actually come away with the ball. And the only guy on the team with a lower usage rate is DeWil, so it's not like Otule is killing the offense by taking bad shots.

He's not a perfect player, obviously, but if we didn't have Gardner, Otule would still be a very capable high-major D1 center.

[Benny B]

Problem is(while Davante is in a funk himself) all Chris is doing while "eroding" the fouls is turning the ball over with a catach...they pick up a foul.

Seriously, the guy has little assets aside from the opening tip. He's always on his ass. Can't catch. Can't hold on to the ball. Probably the worst rebounder on the team at 6 freaking 11.

So essentially, what you are saying is that MU would be better off without Chris on the team.

[NersEllenson]

Again, perception doesn't quite meet with reality and people see what they want to see. This year, Chris has been drawing fouls at a higher rate than Davante Gardner, and while he may not convert free throws at the same rate, Gardner's inefficiency at the line means the disparity hasn't been as great (about 19%) as you might expect. Chris is committing too many fouls, but he is still by far a net positive in terms of fouls drawn versus committed. CO's turnover rate of 20.7% isn't all that bad, nearly as good as Mayo and better than DeWil. He has a higher FG% than Gardner and his overall offensive rating is above average. He's been better on the offensive glass than Gardner and while he doesn't get a ton of defensive rebounds, his role in rebounding is more to box out to allow the rest of the team to actually come away with the ball. And the only guy on the team with a lower usage rate is DeWil, so it's not like Otule is killing the offense by taking bad shots.

He's not a perfect player, obviously, but if we didn't have Gardner, Otule would still be a very capable high-major D1 center.

I'd love to know if there is one other Top 50 team who's starting point guard had the lowest usage rate on the team?  Seems to me if one is used the least...they are useless.

[brewcity77]

I'd love to know if there is one other Top 50 team who's starting point guard had the lowest usage rate on the team?  Seems to me if one is used the least...they are useless.

So according to you, of guys that played at least 50% of the team's minutes, in...

• 2012-13: Trent Lockett was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.
  
• 2011-12: Junior Cadougan was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.
  
• 2010-11: Dwight Buycks was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.
  
• 2009-10: David Cubillan was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.
  
• 2008-09: Dominic James was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.

.
Any other stupid comments you want to make, or is that it for today?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

[PGsHeroes32]

So essentially, what you are saying is that MU would be better off without Chris on the team.

Keep the role extremely reduced. Take the tip and come in every now and then to add a wrinkle.

If were already in the bonus, probably just keep him on the bench.

[GGGG]

So according to you, of guys that played at least 50% of the team's minutes, in...

• 2012-13: Trent Lockett was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.
  
• 2011-12: Junior Cadougan was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.
  
• 2010-11: Dwight Buycks was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.
  
• 2009-10: David Cubillan was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.
  
• 2008-09: Dominic James was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.

.
Any other stupid comments you want to make, or is that it for today?

I have had one sh*tty day....until this post.

[NersEllenson]

So according to you, of guys that played at least 50% of the team's minutes, in...

• 2012-13: Trent Lockett was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.
  
• 2011-12: Junior Cadougan was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.
  
• 2010-11: Dwight Buycks was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.
  
• 2009-10: David Cubillan was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.
  
• 2008-09: Dominic James was useless because he had the lowest usage rate.

.
Any other stupid comments you want to make, or is that it for today?

Nice try Brew - had to go to the 50% rate to try to make a case?  Derrick is last on the whole team in usage rate - not just for those who played 50 percent of the teams minutes.  So your comparison isn't valid. But of the players you cite - I wouldn't say Cadougan was very good as a junior. Lockett was a maddeningly frustrating player over the course of last year, as was Buycks at times. All of them and DJ even took their fair share of criticism on this board - but God forbid anyone call Derrick Wilson a poor high major point guard.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Nice try Brew - had to go to the 50% rate to try to make a case?  Derrick is last on the whole team in usage rate - not just for those who played 50 percent of the teams minutes.  So your comparison isn't valid. But of the players you cite - I wouldn't say Cadougan was very good as a junior. Lockett was a maddeningly frustrating player over the course of last year, as was Buycks at times. All of them and DJ even took their fair share of criticism on this board - but God forbid anyone call Derrick Wilson a poor high major point guard.

You can call him below average. You can even make a case that he's "bad". I don't think anybody would rip you for that.

But, you can't say "useless", and you can't claim that Dawson is better.

[brewcity77]

Nice try Brew - had to go to the 50% rate to try to make a case?  Derrick is last on the whole team in usage rate - not just for those who played 50 percent of the teams minutes.  So your comparison isn't valid. But of the players you cite - I wouldn't say Cadougan was very good as a junior. Lockett was a maddeningly frustrating player over the course of last year, as was Buycks at times. All of them and DJ even took their fair share of criticism on this board - but God forbid anyone call Derrick Wilson a poor high major point guard.

[MuMark]

I wonder why Chris has stopped blocking shots? 4 in 8 games? Burton has that many in far fewer minutes....

[ATL MU Warrior]

I wonder why Chris has stopped blocking shots? 4 in 8 games? Burton has that many in far fewer minutes....

the arthritis has set in.

[g0lden3agle]

Nice try Brew - had to go to the 50% rate to try to make a case?  Derrick is last on the whole team in usage rate - not just for those who played 50 percent of the teams minutes.  So your comparison isn't valid. But of the players you cite - I wouldn't say Cadougan was very good as a junior. Lockett was a maddeningly frustrating player over the course of last year, as was Buycks at times. All of them and DJ even took their fair share of criticism on this board - but God forbid anyone call Derrick Wilson a poor high major point guard.

Brew isn't the only one cherry picking stats.  Derrick of the first 4 games played totally different than Derrick in the next 4 games.  Enjoy being able to hang your hat on his usage rate for a couple more games until those first 4 become a smaller and smaller percentage of his stats for the year.

[Sunbelt15]

You can call him below average. You can even make a case that he's "bad". I don't think anybody would rip you for that.

But, you can't say "useless", and you can't claim that Dawson is better.

Agree. Especially if he keeps his assist average at 5 or more per.

[MUSF]

Madtownwarrior has it right. Starting both Juan and Jake, in particular, doesn't make much sense. 

Buzz has to reward performance in practice, effort, and maturity. If not, he sets a dangerous precedent for the younger and/or more talented players on the team. Coaching isn't as simple as rolling out the balls and letting the most talented players play.

Buzz's philosophy on this has worked in the past, and will continue to work in the future IMO. Even if we have somewhat of a down season this year, I think his approach and philosophy will set the program up for greater success in the future. The young guys are watching and they need to see that preparation, effort, and maturity are the keys to great success.

[brewcity77]

Buzz has to reward performance in practice, effort, and maturity. If not, he sets a dangerous precedent for the younger and/or more talented players on the team. Coaching isn't as simple as rolling out the balls and letting the most talented players play.

Buzz's philosophy on this has worked in the past, and will continue to work in the future IMO. Even if we have somewhat of a down season this year, I think his approach and philosophy will set the program up for greater success in the future. The young guys are watching and they need to see that preparation, effort, and maturity are the keys to great success.

+1

The guys who start have earned it. I think it also serves to be a message to the guys that don't start as to what they need to work on in order to earn the start themselves. Starting the guys who work hardest in practice tells those guys that get by on talent alone that hard work is needed on top of that. The talented guys are getting PT regardless. If they want their name in lights, they have to combine hard work with that talent to get there. I have no problem with that.