My thoughts from a few feet away

[Dr. Blackheart]

This is true, but it doesn't fit the narrative.

Therefore: selfish ballhog volume shooter bad grades.

Here are the KPom grades I see:

Todd Mayo:  Orating of 107.2, 24% of possessions and shots, defensive rebounding rate of 15%, assist rate of 16.5%, turnover rate of 18.5%, free throw rate of  58%,  % of minutes:  44.7%

Jake Thomas:  100.4 ORating, 15% of possessions and 18% of shots, defensive rebounding rate of 7%, assist rate of 11%, turnover rate of 17%, free throw rate of 30% of minutes.  % of minutes:  63%

If you saw those numbers without the names attached and were asked to pick a two guard starter, who would you pick?  I love Jake, I get why he starts, but in an offense that bogs down and lacks a consistent volume scorer at the shooting guard, Todd is by far the best solution.

Now in terms of percent of shots and him being selfish, consider this:  Gardner 27% of shots, JWilson is at 27% of shots, Burton 28%.  All forwards...and many of them forced or ill timed.  Why?  No two guard threat.  

The offense and defense are much better with Todd in there.  And I think it hurts Jake to start and play so many minutes as defenses are able to plan for him, leaving him no space to even get a shot off...and he needs space.

[mu-rara]

Todd Mayo:  Orating of 107.2, 24% of possessions and shots, defensive rebounding rate of 15%, assist rate of 16.5%, turnover rate of 18.5%, free throw rate of  58%,  % of minutes:  44.7%

Jake Thomas:  100.4 ORating, 15% of possessions and 18% of shots, defensive rebounding rate of 7%, assist rate of 11%, turnover rate of 17%, free throw rate of 30% of minutes.  % of minutes:  63%

If you saw those numbers without the names attached and were asked to pick a two guard starter, who would you pick?  I love Jake, I get why he starts, but in an offense that bogs down and lacks a consistent volume scorer at the shooting guard, Todd is by far the best solution.

The offense and defense are much better with Todd in there.  And I think it hurts Jake to start and play so many minutes as defenses are able to plan for him, leaving him no space to even get a shot off...and he needs space.

Jake's hustle play at the end of the Friday game is why he is playing.  Buzz puts a lot of credence to those types of plays.

[Henry Sugar]

Here are the KPom grades I see:

Todd Mayo:  Orating of 107.2, 24% of possessions and shots, defensive rebounding rate of 15%, assist rate of 16.5%, turnover rate of 18.5%, free throw rate of  58%,  % of minutes:  44.7%

Jake Thomas:  100.4 ORating, 15% of possessions and 18% of shots, defensive rebounding rate of 7%, assist rate of 11%, turnover rate of 17%, free throw rate of 30% of minutes.  % of minutes:  63%

If you saw those numbers without the names attached and were asked to pick a two guard starter, who would you pick?  I love Jake, I get why he starts, but in an offense that bogs down and lacks a consistent volume scorer at the shooting guard, Todd is by far the best solution.

Now in terms of percent of shots and him being selfish, consider this:  Gardner 27% of shots, JWilson is at 27% of shots, Burton 28%.  All forwards...and many of them forced or ill timed.  Why?  No two guard threat.  

The offense and defense are much better with Todd in there.  And I think it hurts Jake to start and play so many minutes as defenses are able to plan for him, leaving him no space to even get a shot off...and he needs space.

Comparison using Net Points, which is an imperfect measure that understates defense. However, this comparison isn't close.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Comparison using Net Points, which is an imperfect measure that understates defense. However, this comparison isn't close.

Eek.

I have to wonder what Buzz is seeing in practice, or what he is trying to get out of Mayo by limiting his minutes.

Jake is a role player. When he hits shots, he's useful. When he doesn't, he's not.

[MUfan12]

The offense and defense are much better with Todd in there.  And I think it hurts Jake to start and play so many minutes as defenses are able to plan for him, leaving him no space to even get a shot off...and he needs space.

Great post, Doc. And you're absolutely correct. Jake would be better served in spot minutes, where they can focus on getting him shots.

I don't get why Todd gets such stick around here. I can see he has matured this season, and I'd like to see what he can do as a starter.

[Markusquette]

Correct.  Maybe nothing, but it was so different from the rest of the players.

I meant "not" following the trend, oops.  I noticed the same when photographing the team vs. UNH.  He often seems to sit kind of separated from the team too or in between a couple coaches.  His demeanor seems a bit more independent and he keeps to himself, but one would think he would like to high five his guys.  I did see when Jake left him hanging at the FT line last night though.

[Dreadman24]

Buzz has been getting out coached plain and simple.

[mu03eng]

Buzz has been getting out coached plain and simple.

Based on what?  What coaching move has he made that you would change?

[MerrittsMustache]

Based on what?  What coaching move has he made that you would change?

If I was coaching MU, I'd have more of my players' shots go in. It's such a simple fix. I don't know why Buzz isn't doing that!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Comparison using Net Points, which is an imperfect measure that understates defense. However, this comparison isn't close.

As always, excellent...that is a 23 point swing between the two for just through the SDSU game...yikes indeed!

[MerrittsMustache]

Comparison using Net Points, which is an imperfect measure that understates defense. However, this comparison isn't close.

What are these charts showing? A revamped version of +/-?

[Henry Sugar]

What are these charts showing? A revamped version of +/-?

The chart shows "cumulative net points", which tries to take the margin of victory and assign credit (or blame) to various players for the margin of victory.

The "net points" stat looks at a player's offensive and defensive contributions on top of how much time they play and then assigns that credit. Cumulative net points look at the trends for a player over time... increasing shows positive play and decreasing shows negative play. Most of the time, a player's net points end up around zero.

There are all kinds of flaws with it, mostly on the defensive end. However, I like the stat because it generally passes the red-faced test when looking at the trends for player performance.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The chart shows "cumulative net points", which tries to take the margin of victory and assign credit (or blame) to various players for the margin of victory.

The "net points" stat looks at a player's offensive and defensive contributions on top of how much time they play and then assigns that credit. Cumulative net points look at the trends for a player over time... increasing shows positive play and decreasing shows negative play. Most of the time, a player's net points end up around zero.

There are all kinds of flaws with it, mostly on the defensive end. However, I like the stat because it generally passes the red-faced test when looking at the trends for player performance.

Can you provide the Dwil vs. Dawson comparisons?

[Henry Sugar]

Can you provide the Dwil vs. Dawson comparisons?

Here's the same comparison, but it's not exactly fair. JW has three DNPs and far fewer minutes.



I think this one does a better job of highlighting the two.



At the least, DWilson has four "net positive" games. Dawson has zero, and he has three DNP-CD games as well.  Wilson's ceiling is probably to end up around net-neutral for the year. But that's okay, especially in comparison to the other options.

[willie warrior]

Based on what?  What coaching move has he made that you would change?

Hmmm...Try playing JT less, JA less; Burton and JJJ more. Taking Burton out at about the 3 minute mark when he was carrying the team was a real good move. Those are just a few suggestions.

[MerrittsMustache]

The chart shows "cumulative net points", which tries to take the margin of victory and assign credit (or blame) to various players for the margin of victory.

The "net points" stat looks at a player's offensive and defensive contributions on top of how much time they play and then assigns that credit. Cumulative net points look at the trends for a player over time... increasing shows positive play and decreasing shows negative play. Most of the time, a player's net points end up around zero.

There are all kinds of flaws with it, mostly on the defensive end. However, I like the stat because it generally passes the red-faced test when looking at the trends for player performance.

Thanks for the info.

[GGGG]

Hmmm...Try playing JT less, JA less; Burton and JJJ more. Taking Burton out at about the 3 minute mark when he was carrying the team was a real good move. Those are just a few suggestions.

Time for clarification...

Deonte was substituted out at the 5:24 mark when MU was down 51-50.  At that point, he had been in the game about 7:30.

When he returned to the game at the 3:54 mark, it was tied at 53.

So when Deonte was out, Marquette actually went +1.

[T-Bone]

Regarding high-five-gate part 2.  There was one moment where Jake was at the line and Mayo came from center court to give Jake five and Jake did not notice him there.  

[NotAnAlum]

Jake's hustle play at the end of the Friday game is why he is playing.  Buzz puts a lot of credence to those types of plays.

Yes he had an effort play in a game where we already had a safe lead but that's OK.  On the other hand last night he ran through a screen and fouled a 3 point shooter as he was taking an off balance 3 with the shot clock expiring resulting in 3 free throws and in a 1 point deficit becoming a 4 point deficit with about 2 minutes left in the game.  I'm all for effort but he simply isn't at the same level athletically as the other guys on both those teams and at critical times it can cost us dearly.

[Stretchdeltsig]

FREETHROWS!  If we make freethrows we win.  If we don't we lose.  We missed too many free throws in this game period.

[Bocephys]

FREETHROWS!  If we make freethrows we win.  If we don't we lose.  We missed too many free throws in this game period.

I'll bet that's all they do at practice this week.

[mu03eng]

Comparison using Net Points, which is an imperfect measure that understates defense. However, this comparison isn't close.

Scary part of that graph seems to indicate even when Jake was "breaking" out in the first two games of the classic he was some what trending downward.  Hmmm, I do have to think the defensive flaws in the stat are exaggerating his negative.  Don't get me wrong, he's bad and Mayo and JJJ should be getting more minutes from him, but his defense has been good.

[Henry Sugar]

Scary part of that graph seems to indicate even when Jake was "breaking" out in the first two games of the classic he was some what trending downward.  Hmmm, I do have to think the defensive flaws in the stat are exaggerating his negative.  Don't get me wrong, he's bad and Mayo and JJJ should be getting more minutes from him, but his defense has been good.

Yeah, totally agreed. I actually stopped running these types of stats for a while because of Dominic James' senior season. James' defense was clearly suffocating, but because he didn't collect many defensive stats (blocks, defensive rebounds, or steals) he always showed worse.

Jake is getting dinged in this comparison by the same measure. However, is his defense good enough to justify the disparity? Not likely...