[PaintTouches]Marquette Sees Improvement in Non-conference Strength of Schedule

[PaintTouchesSays]

Marquette Sees Improvement in Non-conference Strength of Schedule

Marquette Sees Improvement in Non-conference Strength of Schedule  Marquette’s non-conference RPI strength of schedule projects to show improvement compared to 2013-14 Even at 8-4, MU’s non-conference adjusted winning percentage would be worse than last year, but the better strength of schedule more than offsets the lower winning percentage Tuesday’s game against Arizona State game looms [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=painttouches.com&blog=28348875&post=12622&subd=painttouches&ref=&feed=1" width="1" height="1" />

Source: Marquette Sees Improvement in Non-conference Strength of Schedule

[brewcity77]

Good article, and illustrates well why playing good cupcakes matters. It's fine to schedule low-major teams, as long as they are projected to be at the top of their league.

[JTBMU7]

also helpful to see how playing bad high-major teams can help too. they may not give a signature win, but their opponents record plays a part in SOS, so that will keep improving as that team runs through their conference games... in that regard, we should be in great shape this year with the three B1G teams, GT, TN, and ASU.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Need a W tonight.

[brewcity77]

also helpful to see how playing bad high-major teams can help too. they may not give a signature win, but their opponents record plays a part in SOS, so that will keep improving as that team runs through their conference games... in that regard, we should be in great shape this year with the three B1G teams, GT, TN, and ASU.

I would say there are three ways to approach it.

• First, go after better low-major teams that will bolster their record in their conference season. Teams like Norfolk State, Southern, and Winthrop are teams we've played in recent years that would fit that mold this year.
  
• Second, go after low-end high-majors. They usually have a solid non-con record and boost your SOS based on whom they play in the conference because most of those opponents will have beat up on their non-con schedule. This does have risk, though, remember LSU in 2011 and NC State in 2009.
  
• Third, and most obvious, is to play top opponents. They will have a good record and play good teams, which will make them solid all around. Of course, this is the riskiest proposition, as we've seen with Ohio State and Vanderbilt in recent years, where we lost both ends of a home-and-home.

.
Every method has risk. If a low-major team falls flat on their face, they stand to be an RPI drag, and any high-major increases the chance of a loss. The real key for me is to keep the absolute dregs out of the schedule. Teams like Grambling, Alabama A&M, and other teams that project as sub-300 RPI are generally going to hurt you because both their non-conference and conference record will suck.

I'm a big fan of looking at the history of the low-majors. Teams like Savannah State, NC-Central, Winthrop, Weber State, Stony Brook, Vermont, American, Bucknell, and Robert Morris may not play in big leagues, but they regularly produce in their own league and you can get them on home court.

And honestly, while I know the name brand value is there with teams like Ohio State, I'm not a huge fan of playing teams that are regulars in the top-25. The most important thing in RPI will always be your own record, and I'd rather see us play home-and-homes where we have a better chance to win at least one of the games.

[MUMountin]

I would say there are three ways to approach it.

• First, go after better low-major teams that will bolster their record in their conference season. Teams like Norfolk State, Southern, and Winthrop are teams we've played in recent years that would fit that mold this year.
  . . .
  Every method has risk. If a low-major team falls flat on their face, they stand to be an RPI drag, and any high-major increases the chance of a loss. The real key for me is to keep the absolute dregs out of the schedule. Teams like Grambling, Alabama A&M, and other teams that project as sub-300 RPI are generally going to hurt you because both their non-conference and conference record will suck.
  
  I'm a big fan of looking at the history of the low-majors. Teams like Savannah State, NC-Central, Winthrop, Weber State, Stony Brook, Vermont, American, Bucknell, and Robert Morris may not play in big leagues, but they regularly produce in their own league and you can get them on home court.
  

I would love to know about the market for "buy-games" and how well it prices the potential RPI value of a good low-major team each off-season.  Does anyone know about the differences in cost for a buy-game between low-major teams?  Do they fluctuate much between teams/from year-to-year?  Do ADs at these schools jack their prices up when they have a senior-laden team that they think will have a good shot?  Is it more of a gradual increase as a program grows from the dregs of the RPI to perennial Cinderella status?  This would be an awesome area for some analytics in terms of getting the best RPI bang-for-your-buck.

In theory, the teams brew mentions above (Vermont, Winthrop, etc.), should be more expensive and in higher demand, making it more difficult to acquire them each season.  On the other side, perennial cellar-dwellers like Prairie View A&M or Samford should be relatively cheap.  Does this play out in reality, or is it all just more of a crapshoot each year?  Of course, there are always teams that surprise to some extent--NJIT might actually be one this this year, given their early successes relative to their recent transitions to D1.  

Anyway, I'd love more insight into how much prognostication goes into putting together an RPI friendly schedule, and if the "buy-game" market anticipates or responds to those trends each year.  Anyone have any insight on how this actually plays out?[/list]

[brewcity77]

I don't know the exact prices, but I do know the prices fluctuate. One more reason I feel we should be bringing in the best possible opponents in any year we consider ourselves a contender. We have the second biggest budget in the country. If we have that much to spend, there's no reason we should play teams like Grambling that everyone knows will be hot garbage year in and year out.