NCAA Tournament Seeding

[MUFlutieEffect]

Obviously the rest of the weekend will play a peripheral factor in MU's seeding, but I'm thinking either a #4 or a #5.  Thoughts?

[BrewCity83]

4.

[MUfan12]

5 out west. I never count on the committee to do us any favors.

[Nukem2]

Hoping for a 4, but a 5 in the East or out West could be in the cards as well.  Depends on the remaining conference tourneys........

[Coleman]

Probably a 4 or 5. Not much difference between the two. We're gonna end up having to play a 1 either way, if we get that far.

I think we were playing for a 3 last night. Would have been nice to see it happen.

[CTWarrior]

4 or 5.  I'd much rather be a 4.  Seems 5s get bumped off in the first round way more often than 4s do.  At 12 you're getting the last of the at-larges (often good teams with bad seasons and strong finishes) and at 13 you start getting the weaker conference winners.  That has changed a bit since they went to 68 as two poor conference winners fall a little further down.

[brewcity77]

I'd guess a 4 right now, though neither a 3 nor 5 would surprise me. On the high end, we're still Big East co-champs, on the low end, we went one-and-done at MSG.

[hairy worthen]

I predict a 3 seed no lower than a 4. Most people pick lower than what actually happens. I think at the end of the day sharing the Big East Championship will hold more weight than losing one game in the third round of the tournament.

[LAZER]

I predict a 3 seed no lower than a 4. Most people pick lower than what actually happens. I think at the end of the day sharing the Big East Championship will hold more weight than losing one game in the third round of the tournament.

Their RPI will help a lot too.  The reason Marquette will get dinged and fall to a 5 seed is their Road/Neutral court record.  That's really the only thing lacking in their resume.

[MUMountin]

FWIW, Bracket Matrix updated this morning to include about 40 new brackets following last night's game.  Still has us as the top 4 seed overall, but about 6 of the new brackets dropped us to a 5 seed (previous versions yesterday, we were all 3/4s) with a little less than half the brackets not updated since before our loss last night.  So, looks like we are holding steady--but have to wait to see if anyone behind us pushes past us in their conference tourneys.

[MUFlutieEffect]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi kept us at a #4, despite last night's loss.

[Nukem2]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi kept us at a #4, despite last night's loss.

Andy Glockner of SI also keeps MU as a 4 seed in his updated bracket today.

[buckchuckler]

Andy Glockner of SI also keeps MU as a 4 seed in his updated bracket today.

I think he had MU as a 3 before last night...

[Eldon]

4 or 5.  I'd much rather be a 4.  Seems 5s get bumped off in the first round way more often than 4s do.  At 12 you're getting the last of the at-larges (often good teams with bad seasons and strong finishes) and at 13 you start getting the weaker conference winners.  That has changed a bit since they went to 68 as two poor conference winners fall a little further down.

Spot on.  I'm also praying for a 4 seed

[MUMountin]

Stats for first round games:

Seed Matchup Statistics Winning Percent
The following represents the percent of times the higher seed has won during the tournament matchups
#1 Seed vs. #16 Seed   100 %
#2 Seed vs. #15 Seed    96 %
#3 Seed vs. #14 Seed    85 %
#4 Seed vs. #13 Seed   79 %
#5 Seed vs. #12 Seed   67 %
#6 Seed vs. #11 Seed    67 %
#7 Seed vs. #10 Seed    60 %
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed      47 %

4 seeds win 4 out of 5 first-round games; 5 seeds win 2 out of 3. 

[The Equalizer]

Right now I have to think there are too many ways for us to fall to a 5 than stay a 4.

1. Wisconsin over Michigan today may well have moved UW ahead of us on a lot of people's s-curves--and I doubt anyone would put Michigan behind us despite the loss.  If UW beats Indiana, they move ahead of us on 100% of the S-curves. 

2. Winner of the K-State/Oklahoma State game will move on to the B12 championship against Kansas.  The winner probably moves ahead of us on the S-curve.  As with Wisconsin, there will be no doubt if that team wins the B12.

3. Winner of the A10 will move ahead of us, IF it is SLU or VCU.  Possibly Butler.  Don't think any of them can get there if they don't win the conference.

4. If Syracuse beats Georgetown, they'll move up to a 4 seed, possibly ahead of us on the S-curve.  They remove all doubt if they win the BE championship.

5. Arizona will move ahead of us if they win the P12.  I think there's a very small chance UCLA will move ahead of us if they win the P12 title.  Don't think there is any way Utah or Oregon will pass us even if they win the P12.

6. If UNC beats FSU today and Duke on Saturday, they'll move to a 4. Not because they deserve it, but because they're UNC and they just beat Duke.  If they win the ACC outright, once again they remove all doubt.

There just seem to be a lot of ways we can be passed right now.

At this point, baring a ton of upsets, I'm expecting a 5.  I'm hoping we don't get screwed with a 6--although we could given that there is nobody from the Big East on the committtee.  I will be pleasantly surprised if we get a 4 or better.

[NavinRJohnson]

Wisconsin has an RPI in the 40's, at least prior to today. They are not moving ahead of us, probably unless they win the big ten tournament. KSU/OSU may cancel eachother out. SLU may already be ahead of us. Again, those two probably cancel eachother out. Syracuse, Arizona, and UNC need wins.

4 or 5 most likely. 6 possible. Either way its fine. Time to play.

[Sunbelt15]

5. We're still in the top 20 ranking.

[ChicosBailBonds]

When is the last time a Big East champion got a 5 seed?

[Norm]

When is the last time a Big East champion got a 5 seed?

There's always a first time for everything.

My only wish is that they don't get sent somewhere where the first, lower seeded team they play essentially has an advantage of playing closer to home with tons more fans than MU, which the committee seems to do them often.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

When is the last time a Big East champion got a 5 seed?

With ya. A lot of crap would have to happen to be a higher seed than a 4.

[injuryBug]

always confused how a couple games in a conference tournament impacts a seed over the body of work over the entire season.  The entire season gives a better indicator of a team rather than 1 or 2 games.

That said I still think we end up on the 4 line but will sent out west

[77ncaachamps]

MU in SJ. Book it.

[hairy worthen]

always confused how a couple games in a conference tournament impacts a seed over the body of work over the entire season.  The entire season gives a better indicator of a team rather than 1 or 2 games.

That said I still think we end up on the 4 line but will sent out west

That's what I am saying. RPI and conference championship should hold more weight you would think. I am still predicting a 3 but realistically a 4. Too much overanalyzing this.