ND Stats

[Henry Sugar]

Comments
It's crazy that Marquette shot an eFG% of 71% in the first half and 65% for the game. That's #mubb's second best eFG% of the season (behind only the win against North Carolina Central)
Turnovers were average to sloppy in both halves
Lost in the win is that Notre Dame really owned the boards. Marquette only got an OR% of 14% for the game and let ND get 44% of all missed shots

Why is it that a team can lose two of the four factors (turnovers/ORs) and only be marginally better in another (FTR) and still win the game? Repeat after me... eFG% is 2-3x more important than any other factor.

[NYWarrior]

for a team that cant shoot, MU has one hell of an offense.

[GGGG]

One thing Buzz has always been able to do is put together a good offense.

[Henry Sugar]

Final Standings Win Projections

Georgetown 13+ wins (100%); 14+ wins (80%); 15 wins (30%)
Louisville 13+ wins (99%); 14 wins (80%)
Marquette 13+ wins (90%); 14 wins (50%)

[IlikecreansoIcantposthere]

Won't the Off Reb numbers be negatively impacted by the high shooting %? 

[ATWizJr]

Gotta' love a team that's flexible enough to beat Syracuse one night shooting 35 free throws and then come back to beat ND shooting only 10.  Credit Buzz and the boys for being able to adjust to the refs and the opponent as needed.

[Henry Sugar]

One thing Buzz has always been able to do is put together a good offense.

Okay, so here is the Daily Dementing for everyone. Marquette's defense is still not good (#60 overall)

I've not updated the defense information from last year's tourney, but here are the defensive averages for all teams from 2007-2011.

Finish (Defensive Rank)
1st Round game   (34.3)
Sweet Sixteen   (25.6)
Elite Eight   (19.9)
Final Four   (16.6)

Of course, teams can still make deep runs without a really strong defense. And, Marquette did make the S16 two years ago with a profile similar to this year's.

[CTWarrior]

Here's an off the wall question.  Since possession is alternating, how is it possible for one team to have 3 more possessions than another in a regulation game?  If you had the first and last possession of each half that would only give you two more possesions than your opponent.

[MUMonster03]

for a team that cant shoot, MU has one hell of an offense.

It seems like we are either shooting well or can't hit the broad side of a barn.

[Henry Sugar]

Won't the Off Reb numbers be negatively impacted by the high shooting %? 

No, the number is offensive rebounding percentage. Stated more clearly, how many of your missed shots did you rebound?

Put another way, #mubb only had three offensive rebounds to Notre Dame's seventeen.

It is total rebounds and/or rebound margin that are impacted by the high shooting percentage.

[RJax55]

Okay, so here is the Daily Dementing for everyone. Marquette's defense is still not good (#60 overall)

I've not updated the defense information from last year's tourney, but here are the defensive averages for all teams from 2007-2011.

Finish (Defensive Rank)
1st Round game   (34.3)
Sweet Sixteen   (25.6)
Elite Eight   (19.9)
Final Four   (16.6)

Do you have the offensive averages? I'm intrigued to see the numbers.

[jsglow]

Warrior,  please remind me of the exact definition of eFG%.  I get efficiency and I get FG%.  Thanks.

[Henry Sugar]

Do you have the offensive averages? I'm intrigued to see the numbers.

They're about the same as the defensive numbers. However, for some reason I remember working through this before and finding that the offensive numbers weren't as consistent of a predictor. I have some stuff to take care of today, but will try to update everything with the 2012 numbers and see what it shows.

Of course, a few years ago I worked on this and was super pleased with how smart I was, and then VCU (rank 86) and Butler (49) both made the final four.

Finish   (Rank)
1st Round game   31.4
Sweet Sixteen   21.9
Elite Eight   15.0
Final Four   15.3

Warrior,  please remind me of the exact definition of eFG%.  I get efficiency and I get FG%.  Thanks.

Effective Field Goal Percentage
the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA

It adjusts for the impact of a three point shot. In other words, shooting 4/12 from three is the same as shooting 6/12 from two.