What Reasonable NCAA Expectations Should We Have?

[dgies9156]

Ok, this may be counting our poultry before a hen laid an egg, but what are our reasonable NCAA expectations this year?

I'm really messed up on this one. On one hand, we don't seem to be able to win on the road to save our lives. On the other hand, we have something really nice this year and there are no teams that appear dominant enough to be a prohibitive favorite. Yeah, the tanned one and Duke are good -- but they are not THAT Good this year.

That's why a Warrior national championship is not the long-shot it might have been in past years

Stranger things have happened. I never would have thought after Al's announced resignation, the seven losses and the miserable game we played in Al's last home game against Wichita State that we ever would have had a chance to go deep in the 1977 NCAA tournament. But look what happened.

Same for 2003. Marquette was so far under the radar that you needed an excavator to find us. Only those who had watched us for any length of time knew there was something special there. If we had played ball instead of lived off our press clippings in 2003, who knows?

So how far does the Scoop Nation think we can go?

[muwarrior69]

One at a time.

[jeffreyweee]

It's all about match-ups.

[MUMountin]

Going into the season, I was expecting that they'd just make the tournament and hopeful that, depending on matchups, win their first-round game.

Now, I'd be very disappointed if they didn't win at least one game--and am hoping that they win at least two.  A third straight sweet sixteen would be great, considering the preseason expectations, and will say a lot about the momentum/staying power of the program under Buzz.

Get there, and I'd be very happy--with a shot to make it further depending on matchups.  In my mind, being a perennial S16 school is the mark of a top program--getting there consistently is a display of strength and consistency.  Anything beyond that in the tournament takes a certain measure of luck and catching fire at the right time.  If we can make the S16 consistently, and then threaten to go deeper every few years, I'd be a very happy man.  

[tower912]

Seed, match-ups, location.    When those 3 are known, I will have expectations. 

[cheebs09]

Tough year to predict. With our outside shooting, a first-round upset is definitely a risk. However, with parity, we could make a run to the Elite Eight. It's all matchups as people have said.

[Goose]

IMO it is all gravy this year. If we get higher seed expectations go up and I do not think that is fair. This is far from great team and they exceeded all expectations for most reasonable fans. Match-ups or seedings will not change my opinion. Last year NCAA was disappointment to me because I thought E8 was possible. This year I applaud the coaching and team effort that took an average team and became good.

[brewcity77]

Match-ups are huge, as is our seeding. I think if we get a 4/5, the Elite 8 is possible if we are in the same bracket as Gonzaga or Indiana. If we get up to a 3, I think the Elite 8 is possible if we see Miami. And if we see Miami and Gonzaga/Indiana/Georgetown as the 1, the Final Four is possible.

Realistically, I think the Sweet 16 is a good goal but I really think taking the next step to the Elite 8 should be the hope. I'm sure it is for Buzz. As much as I hope for it, I think going beyond that will just be a step too far this year. But this is certainly Buzz's deepest, most diverse team, if not his best (and it may be that as well). We can do damage, but by the same token, we could be exceptionally vulnerable to a Cinderella that shoots the 3 well and plays good defense.

[NavinRJohnson]

On one hand, we don't seem to be able to win on the road to save our lives.

not trying to pick on you, but I have heard this a lot lately, and the more I think of it, the more I'm not buying it. Outside of uwgb, which loss MU suffered should be considered surprising/unexpected/unacceptable, and/or why are the road/neutral games we have won simply brushed aside?

Louisville is among the best teams in the country, is their road record appreciably better than MU's? Georgetown lost at USF for crying out loud. Is anyone questioning Duke? They haven't beaten anyone on the road.

[nyg]

Just want to get past Rutgers and St. Johns first. 

[ATWizJr]

If we were to make the S16 for the third year in a row I think it would speak highly of the program and given what we lost to graduation, would be a damned fine accomplishment.  and, ya' never know what could happen after that.

[DCWarriors04]

If we can get a favorable 3, 4, or 5 seed...Sweet 16 or Elite 8 are possible.

[LloydMooresLegs]

not trying to pick on you, but I have heard this a lot lately, and the more I think of it, the more I'm not buying it. Outside of uwgb, which loss MU suffered should be considered surprising/unexpected/unacceptable, and/or why are the road/neutral games we have won simply brushed aside?

Louisville is among the best teams in the country, is their road record appreciably better than MU's? Georgetown lost at USF for crying out loud. Is anyone questioning Duke? They haven't beaten anyone on the road.

agreed - one really good road win at Pitt (plus two other BE road wins); and, as you say,other than UWGB,  5 road losses are OT loss at Cinci; G'town; close at nova; stomped by Louisville and Florida

[jsglow]

Isn't this so cool.  At the beginning of the season I erroneously believed we were probably, but not certainly, an NCAA team.  Now, we've been a 'lock' for awhile, are well positioned for a top 4 seed or even slightly better and have real aspirations for play on the second weekend.  All good.

[MU82]

Barring some kind of injury or other crazy occurrence between now and the start of the NCAAs, my feeling will be the same as it has for the last 5 or 6 weeks:

We could beat anybody ... or we could lose to anybody.

I have little trouble envisioning a victory over any of the projected 1 or 2 seeds. We would have some matchup problems with any of them, but we would present some matchup problems, too, especially if we're shooting even only OK from the outside and taking care of the ball.

I also have little trouble seeing us lose to a much lower seed. Don't forget ... our great team in 2003 almost lost to Holy Cross. And Duke lost just last year to Lehigh. This crap happens, and we are just flawed enough to be victimized.

So I don't think it's crazy to say that the Final Four is a possibility, not in this most even-Steven college hoops season. The same is true for a first-round loss that would have many of us perched on our ledges.

[NotAnAlum]

Hate to rain on your parade Dgies9156 but I don't see us getting very far this year.  We have overachieved by out working the other teams.  Those kind of teams have a hard time in tourney because they already are playing at 100% and can't step their play up.  Similar to Lazar's last year.  Secondly we lack a star who is virtually unstoppable and can take over a game.  I thought Jae was that star last year and had he played against FL the way he did the whole season we win that game and might have gotten to the FF.  There is nobody on this team that has shown the ability to play like that.  
And by the way the 2003 team wasn't as under the radar as you might remember.    Wade was an all American candidate going into the year.  We had already beaten the Big 10 champs and the ACC champs  in the regular season.  Also I don't believe the 2003 team ever was blown out of a game.  Teams that have the power to make a tourney run tend to show that kind of resume.  This years team was smoked by Florida and Louisville.  I fear that this years team is the beneficiary of a weak Big East where the bottom teams in particular are terrible.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the BE under preform their seeds this year.
All of this said this has been a really fun year and I'm proud of what our team has done.  In my mind making the tourney this year with ease is a big surprise.  If they could somehow win 2 games I'd be very impressed.  

[tower912]

The 2003 team lost to UAB in the conference tourney, as well as by 21 at ND and to East Carolina.   However, notanalum, you make valid points.   MU has gotten this far through maximum effort and execution.    It isn't clear that they have another level to take it to.  Which is why I want to see seed, matchups, and location.

[dgies9156]

Hate to rain on your parade Dgies9156 but I don't see us getting very far this year.  We have overachieved by out working the other teams.  Those kind of teams have a hard time in tourney because they already are playing at 100% and can't step their play up.  Similar to Lazar's last year.  Secondly we lack a star who is virtually unstoppable and can take over a game.  

And by the way the 2003 team wasn't as under the radar as you might remember.    Wade was an all American candidate going into the year.  We had already beaten the Big 10 champs and the ACC champs  in the regular season.  Also I don't believe the 2003 team ever was blown out of a game.  

All of this said this has been a really fun year and I'm proud of what our team has done.  In my mind making the tourney this year with ease is a big surprise.  If they could somehow win 2 games I'd be very impressed.  

In reverse order: You are probably right, but I'm hoping with big wins against Syracuse and the Irish and three tough wins in the last four games, maybe something exciting is about to start.

2003: Nobody had us in the Final Four, or even in its suburbs. Our strength was largely unknown outside Wisconsin.

First, you aint raining on my parade. If we get blown out in the first round, that's rain. I'm really impressed with Buzz and the guys this year and really am enthused.

[gmhfordham1015]

What type of 1/2 seed would we match up well against?

[Golden Avalanche]

Elite Eight.

[muwarrior97]

What type of 1/2 seed would we match up well against?

Not Florida, Not Louisville, Not Izzo's squad, Not Zags, Not Florida.....guess it would fall to Kansas or Hoyas (for a third or fourth game)

[RideMyBuycks]

I think KG put it best..."Anything is possible!!"