ESPN Insider: How far will MU go?

[Eldon]

"Golden Eagles are capable of grinding out wins, but turnovers could hurt them"

Any ESPN insider care to summarize?

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2013/story/_/page/lunardi13marquette/2013-ncaa-tournament-bracket-projections-marquette-golden-eagles

Thanks.

[LastWarrior]

The Marquette Golden Eagles far exceeded preseason expectations -- all the way to a share of the Big East regular-season title. They have been on a steady rise all season. Is the best yet to come?

ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams, in order to help you make smart picks in your bracket. Plus, as Lunardi fills out his bracket, he'll give you his prediction on how each team will fare.

PROFILES FOR ALL 68 TEAMS | BRACKET PREDICTOR
TOURNEY PROFILE

Best wins: Georgetown, Syracuse, at Pittsburgh (OT), Wisconsin

Worst losses: at Green Bay, at Villanova, at Cincinnati (OT)

Conference finish: T-1st, Big East

Polls and metrics: Marquette finally cracked the AP Top 25 in mid-January, and by the end of the month, the Golden Eagles were there to stay. They have risen into the top 20 of the BPI.

All-time tourney record: 38-31, three Final Four appearances, one national title.

Coach's tourney record: Buzz Williams (5-4)

Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL

(Note: Player statistics are for the regular season only.)

Starting lineup
Pos.    Name    PPG    MPG
C
   
Chris Otule
   
5.0
   
17.5
F
   
Juan Anderson
   
3.0
   
13.5
G
   
Vander Blue
   
14.4
   
32.6
G
   
Junior Cadougan
   
8.6
   
28.0
G
   
Trent Lockett
   
7.2
   
26.1

Key bench players
Pos.    Name    PPG    MPG
F
   
Jamil Wilson
   
9.2
   
24.5
F
   
Davante Gardner
   
11.5
   
21.3
G
   
Todd Mayo
   
6.4
   
14.8

Biggest strength: Bench scoring and depth. Marquette utilizes a 10-man rotation and nine players average more than 13 minutes per game. The bench players score more than 30 points per game, one of the most productive units in the nation.

Biggest weakness: Perimeter shooting. They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. Wilson is the closest thing they have to a consistent deep threat.

Best player: Blue has the flashy name and a flair for the dramatic. His overtime buzzer-beating layup in the season finale against St. John's clinched Marquette's first share of a Big East title since joining the conference in 2005-06. He is the leading scorer, but he doesn't necessarily have to have a big scoring night for them to win.

X factor: Gardner. The big man comes off the bench to boost Marquette's frontcourt. He showed an ability to score in double figures in conference play and he exploded for 26 points in a late-season win against Syracuse. However, Gardner has been known to disappear and had a grand total of six points in the team's last three regular-season losses.
SCOUTING REPORT

Offensive approach: The Golden Eagles stress "paint touches," using their guards to slash to the lane and work the ball through the paint to find the open man. They will also make the most of transition opportunities.

Defensive approach: The Golden Eagles embody the personality of their coach in their man-to-man defense: intense, tireless, and in your face. They don't play a ton of zone, but if they see an opportunity to use it to their advantage, they won't hesitate to exploit an opponent's weakness.

How they beat you: They outwork and outhustle opponents. Coach Williams is fully aware that his team is not the most talented, even in its own conference, but the Golden Eagles never let up. Opponents are in for a 40-minute grind.

How you beat them: Make Marquette play on the perimeter and force them to settle for outside shots. In five of Marquette's seven regular-season losses, opponents held the Golden Eagles below 60 points. They are also prone to beating themselves and averaged over 16 turnovers in those losses.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY

(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com, and are accurate through games of March 10.)

Category    Stat    Nat'l rank
Offensive efficiency
   
113.9
   
16
Defensive efficiency
   
93.0
   
49
3-point percentage
   
29.9
   
320
3-point percentage D
   
31.7
   
73
Free throw rate
   
42.1
   
34
Free throw rate D
   
31.4
   
71
TO percentage
   
20.9
   
231
TO percentage D
   
20.2
   
167

Good stat: Offensive efficiency rating
The Golden Eagles rank 16th in the country in this category and they are also one of the better teams in the country at getting to the free throw line. Their deep rotation doesn't boast many players that can take over a game, but they can all contribute on any given night.

Bad stat: 3-point percentage
Marquette is one of the worst squads in the country at converting perimeter shots into points. The silver lining is that the Golden Eagles know what doesn't work and take just over a quarter of their shots from beyond the arc.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?

Best-case scenario: Playing for the Elite Eight
They've been on the rise all season and Williams will see to it that he gets the most out of his team. Marquette has won its share of overtime and close games so it won't wilt under pressure. Don't be surprised if the Golden Eagles treat college hoops fans to a few heartstopping wins and go down to the wire with a chance to advance to a regional final.

Worst-case scenario: Second-round exit
They will be in trouble if Williams has to continually play musical chairs with his rotation -- not to keep them fresh, but because he can't find a working combination. Couple that with a propensity to turn the ball over and Marquette fans could be sweating through their shirts faster than Williams during the team's first game.

[Eldon]

Thanks!

[Coleman]

So best case scenario is Sweet 16 and worst case scenario is round of 32? 

[wadesworld]

So best case scenario is Sweet 16 and worst case scenario is round of 32? 

Elite Eight and first round exit, according to the article. The "Second round" is the first set of real games. They consider the play in games the "first round."

[Litehouse]

Is there a similar one for Davidson someone could post?

[BubbaWilliams]

Is there a similar one for Davidson someone could post?

Davidson enters the NCAA tournament on a 17-game winning streak, the longest in the nation, after having won the South Division of the Southern Conference and the league tournament title. The Wildcats won't be a desirable first-round opponent, given their previous exploits in the NCAAs. Just five years ago, led by Stephen Curry, they took out Gonzaga, Wisconsin and Georgetown to get to an Elite Eight matchup against Kansas and had every opportunity to win that game and advance to the Final Four. Can the Wildcats pull off an upset or two this season?

ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket. Plus, as Lunardi fills out his bracket, he'll give you his prediction on how each team will fare.

PROFILES FOR ALL 68 TEAMS | BRACKET PREDICTOR

TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Richmond

Worst losses: at Georgia Southern


Conference finish: 1st, Southern Conference

Polls and metrics: After winning the league tournament, Davidson ranked No. 69 in the BPI.

All-time tourney record: 8-12

Coach's tourney record: Bob McKillop (3-6)

Bracketology chart | BPI information

PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are for the regular season only.)

Starting lineup
Pos.   Name   PPG   MPG
C
Jake Cohen
14.8
25.5
F
De'Mon Brooks
13.8
26.8
G
Chris Czerapowicz
9.2
25.6
G
JP Kuhlman
8.1
29.7
G
Nik Cochran
9.8
30.7
Key bench players
Pos.   Name   PPG   MPG
G
Tyler Kalinoski
7.8
22.5
G
Tom Droney
4.2
21.7
G
Jordan Barham
2.2
5.2
Biggest strength: The Wildcats are experienced and battle tested, with three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup. During the regular season, they played New Mexico, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Gonzaga and Duke, beating the Commodores and Mountaineers and leading the Lobos and Zags by double figures before losing. A year ago, Davidson knocked off Kansas during the regular season. The Wildcats won't be afraid of their first-round opponent.

Biggest weakness: There isn't a lot of experienced depth in the frontcourt.

Best player: Cohen, the 6-foot-10 senior, is a two-time SoCon player of the year and only the second player in school history to rack up more than 1,500 points, 500 rebounds and 100 blocked shots in his career.

X factor: Czerapowicz has size for his position and the potential to break games open with his 3-point shooting.

SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Wildcats try to get down the floor in a hurry, but if they can't get a quick and easy basket, they revert to their cutting and passing game and patiently seek the best shot that's available.

Defensive approach: Davidson plays man-to-man and switches on ball screens.

How they beat you: This is an experienced team that isn't awed by playing against power-conference competition. The Wildcats seek out high-percentage shots, but they can also break games open with 3-point shooting. And in close games, their free-throw shooting, tops in the country (.801), is a weapon.

How you beat them: The Wildcats can fall victim to size in the post and quickness at guard.

WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 10.)

Category   Stat   Nat'l rank
Offensive efficiency
109.9
42
Defensive efficiency
97.0
104
3-point percentage
36.9
51
3-point percentage D
26.4
24
Free throw rate
38.6
97
Free throw rate D
36.9
197
TO percentage
17.1
29
TO percentage D
19.1
225
Good stat: 3-point percentage
The Wildcats make 36.9 percent of their shots from behind the arc, which is a key factor for an offense that ranks in the top 50 in the country in offensive efficiency.

Bad stat: Turnover percentage D
Davidson doesn't force a high rate of turnovers, ranking in the bottom half of the nation in this category. For a team looking to pull an upset, that could prove to be problematic.

HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Third round
It would surprise no one if the Wildcats won their opening game. They beat Vanderbilt and West Virginia and led New Mexico and Gonzaga by double figures before losing in early-season games, so there won't be the fear factor that some mid-major teams might experience.

Worst-case scenario: Second-round exit
As good and seasoned as Davidson is, the NCAA tournament is all about matchups. A team with overpowering size and/or quickness could give the Wildcats problems, and their tournament run could end as quickly as it starts.

[wojosdojo]

So best case scenario is Sweet 16 and worst case scenario is round of 32?  

Elite Eight and first round exit, according to the article. The "Second round" is the first set of real games. They consider the play in games the "first round."

He says PLAYING for elite 8. So yes, best case is sweet sixteen. Thanks for the motivation!

[Litehouse]

Thanks.  Looks like Vander and Oxtule could be poised for big games.  Hopefully if we defend the 3 point line and limit the unforced turnovers we should be OK.

[NickelDimer]

They sound a lot like Utah St when we played them

[Hards Alumni]

How you beat them: The Wildcats can fall victim to size in the post and quickness at guard.

As good and seasoned as Davidson is, the NCAA tournament is all about matchups. A team with overpowering size and/or quickness could give the Wildcats problems, and their tournament run could end as quickly as it starts.

Sounds like we will give them problems.

[Skatastrophy]

Sounds like we will give them problems.

Totally agree.

They can't handle our regular line-up.  Much less our Monster set or when we go 5-small.  I'm looking forward to playing them

[Litehouse]

Their big guy Cohen had 24 pts and 10 rebs in their tourney game against Louisville last year.  That's impressive.