[Cracked Sidewalks] Marquette drops out of AP, ESPN and Value Add Top 25; opens with #4 Ohio State (Craft 8th best player and Thomas 12th)

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Marquette drops out of AP, ESPN and Value Add Top 25; opens with #4 Ohio State (Craft 8th best player and Thomas 12th)

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (bamamarquettefan1)


The preseason polls are out, and Marquette is out of both top 25s but getting a chance to make an immediate mark vs. Ohio State on November 9 at 6 p.m. CST on NBC Sports.

The Buckeyes are ranked #4 by both the coaches and writers.  While Value Add ranks them slightly lower at #10, it also indicates that they should have the #2 duo in the country.  Aaron Craft projects as the 8th best player in the country, while Deshaun Thomas ranks as the 12thbest player.  Marquette is deeper, as the Buckeyes only have seven top 1000 players while Marquette has ten.
Both the AP and ESPN agreed with Value Add’s appraisal of Indiana as the #1 team in the country this year.  In most cases the coaches and writers poll was pretty close to Value Add.
A few changes in the past couple of months â€" three players were mistakenly flagged after last season as going to the NBA but stayed and are now being added back to the database.  Jeff Withey still being at Kansas pushed them up to 7th place and temporarily bumped Marquette out of the Top 25.  Sean Kilpatrick of Cincinnati and Michael Snaer at Florida State were not enough to get either team back into the top 25.
While I doubt Kentucky will be able to reload this year for a title run and believe their #3 is too high, I am sure they will be higher than Value Adds 18th, and Value Add projects they are the frontrunner for the 2014 title.  I am sure UNC will likewise outperform their raw Value Add.
My question is whether or not UCLA is actually this year’s Kentucky â€" a team that could be at the Final Four behind incredible freshmen.  It was UCLA that beat out Kentucky for Shabazz Muhammad and with fellow freshman Kyle Anderson they could be much better than their 13th rank â€" and Value Add calculates that duo could approach the level of Wall and Cousins for their freshman season.
The following are my notes on all top 25 teams.
And my headline was a teaser.  While Kansas did bump Marquette out of the top 25 temporarily, when the NCAA ruled that Ricardo Ledo must sit out this year it bumped Providence down to 33rd and put Marquette back in the top 25.  The fact that Kris Dunn is supposed to be out for the 1st semester due to surgery drops them to 58th until his return.table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}  
TEAMValue AddAPESPNNotes on differences[/tr]

Indiana	1	1	1	Said this the day after the title
Louisville	6	2	2	Marra's injury dropped them from 3rd to 6th
Kentucky	18	3	3	Sure they will be closer to 3rd, but believe a year between title chances
Ohio State	10	4	4	Only UCLA better duo than #8 Craft/#12 Thomas
Michigan	27	5	5	Only UCLA & Ohio St. have better duo than #22 Burke & #42 McGary, Value Add just doesn't show depth
North Carolina State	4	6	6
Kansas	7	7	7	Jeff Withey IS still on roster
Duke	14	8	8	Perhaps a little reputation?
Syracuse	22	9	9	See Duke above?
Florida	15	10	10
North Carolina	31	11	12	Like Kentucky, hard to measure but need a year to rebuild
Arizona	12	12	11	2014 National Contender
UCLA	2	13	13	FR Muhammad and Anderson make them this year's Kentucky - could be Wall-Cousins level
Michigan State	9	14	14
Missouri	16	15	17
Creighton	21	16	15
Memphis	3	17	16	Probably too high, but 4 juniors rank higher than any MU player
UNLV	8	18	19	4 top 200 players, one from each class
Baylor	5	19	18	#38 Heslip, #52 Jackson, #74 Austin
San Diego State	54	20	20	only 2 players in top 400, none in top 100
Gonzaga	32	21	22
Notre Dame	17	22	23
Wisconsin	23	23	21
Cincinnati	43	24		Sean Kilpatrick IS still on roster, but still don't have them ranked
Florida State	96	25	24	Michael Snaer IS still on roster, don't know value of 7-foot-3 Boris Bojanovsky
Texas	11		24	People don't know how much freshman improve - sophomores McClellon #36, Holmes #99, Kabongo #157, Bond #321
Pittsburgh	13			Jump sounds too high, but don't expect 2012 repeat
Minnesota	19
Arkansas	20			Is BJ Young really a top 10 player?
Georgetown	24			If Otto Porter really a top 10 player?
Marquette	25			dropped out due to Kansas, then back ahead of Providence

Below are the current top 50 players according to Value Add - and as always corrections are welcome - just email jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com or send through www.valueaddbasketball.com.
table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}  
RnkTop 50 playersTeam[/tr]

1	Zeller, Cody	Indiana
2	McDermott, Doug	Creighton
3	Muhammad, Shabazz	UCLA
4	Porter, Otto	Georgetown
5	Anderson, Kyle	UCLA
6	McCollum, CJ	Lehigh
7	Young, BJ	Arkansas
8	Craft, Aaron	Ohio St.
9	Perry, Kendrick	Youngstown St.
10	Galloway, Langston	Saint Joseph's
11	Roberson, Andre	Colorado
12	Thomas, Deshaun	Ohio St.
13	Medlin, Preston	Utah St.
14	Pangos, Kevin	Gonzaga
15	Canaan, Isaiah	Murray St.
16	Noel, Nerlens	Kentucky
17	Pressey, Phil	Missouri
18	Dieng, Gorgui	Louisville
19	Cooley, Jack	Notre Dame
20	Napier, Shabazz	Connecticut
21	Massenat, Frantz	Drexel
22	Burke, Trey	Michigan
23	Tuttle, Seth	Northern Iowa
24	Mitchell, Tony	North Texas
25	Wolters, Nate	South Dakota St.
26	Kilpatrick, Sean	Cincinnati
27	Releford, Trevor	Alabama
28	Caldwell-Pope, Kentavious	Georgia
29	Stoglin, Terrell	Maryland
30	Boynton, Kenny	Florida
31	Withey, Jeff	Kansas
32	Broekhoff, Ryan	Valparaiso
33	McGruder, Rodney	Kansas St.
34	Wyatt, Khalif	Temple
35	Harrison, D'Angelo	St. John's
36	McClellan, Sheldon	Texas
37	Sobolewski, Dave	Northwestern
38	Heslip, Brady	Baylor
39	Patterson, Lamar	Pittsburgh
40	Dellavedova, Matthew	St. Mary's
41	Williams, Chaz	Massachusetts
42	McGary, Mitch	Michigan
43	Threatt, Jarvis	Delaware
44	Dixon, Michael	Missouri
45	O'Neale, Royce	Denver
46	Kazemi, Arsalan	Rice
47	Cobbs, Justin	California
48	Covington, Robert	Tennessee St.
49	Johnson, Kerron	Belmont
50	Henton, LaDontae	Providence

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/10/marquette-drops-out-of-ap-espn-and.html

[honkytonk]

Looking at the AP poll. I cant really disagree with their top 10 although I think I would flip-flop Duke and UCLA (assuming both Bazz and Anderson are cleared to play). Zona could be sneaky good this year... I also dont think Syracuse is over-rated; they lost a ton but will have 3 h.s. AA in their starting 5. Boeheim buries his freshmen so much that it is nearly impossible to predict the jump they make into their 2nd year.

Outside of the top 10? Who knows. I think we should have been between 15-20...

[LateNightHoops]

Looking at Cincinnati, was trying to reconcile Value Add with the polls.. in addition to Kilpatrick I think there are a few things:

• Shaq Thomas - Was only #93 RSCI in the class of 2011, but still a lot of upside potential and was with the team last year.  He didn't play as he was a nonqualifier (NCAA didn't like his school), but did receive a waiver to be on scholarship and practice with the team.. so, not only a solid recruit, but a guy that has been with the team for more than a year already
• Mbodj - Was hurt before last season started... now 'healthy' and down 20+ pounds... not sold, but he's a big boy from Senegal that some think can play
• David Nyarsuk - NAIA guy from Sudan... 7'1". Think he was headed for WVa but didn't qualify.

Right around the top 25 is probably reasonable, but I could see why some might be a little too high w/their Cinci expectations...

LateNightHoops.com

[The Lens]

I think it's an absolute joke that writers and coaches vote Buzzard out of the Top 25.  This is probably his best team.  It defies logic why people, now, wouldn't at least give him the benefit of the doubt.  If Gardner and Otule stay healthy, and I realize that's a decent size if, this team can get to the Final Four.  But it's not just them:
- Jamil Wilson very well could end up being drafted next June
- Vander will be a All Big East performer (2nd team at least)
- Mayo's return is huge
- Cadougan is a senior so you would expect a light bulb to go on and stay on all year
- Lockett can help fill in for Crowder's leadership

[Mr. Nielsen]

The headline is a bit odd. MU didn't drop out of the poll. This is the first poll of 2012-13.
Plus, the OSU-MU game is on NBC Sports Network, not NBC.

[wadesworld]

I think it's an absolute joke that writers and coaches vote Buzzard out of the Top 25.  This is probably his best team.  It defies logic why people, now, wouldn't at least give him the benefit of the doubt.  If Gardner and Otule stay healthy, and I realize that's a decent size if, this team can get to the Final Four.  But it's not just them:
- Jamil Wilson very well could end up being drafted next June
- Vander will be a All Big East performer (2nd team at least)
- Mayo's return is huge
- Cadougan is a senior so you would expect a light bulb to go on and stay on all year
- Lockett can help fill in for Crowder's leadership

I want some of what you're drinking.

For the record, I think this will be a very good team.  But I still want some of what you're drinking.

[Dawson Rental]

Kentucky #3 AP and ESPN, #18 Value add, perhaps a lot reputation.

UCLA - The eligibility of Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson is not yet for certain.

"It's important to note that, to the best of my knowledge, UCLA is not under investigation. It is only the players who are being investigated, the NCAA checking for possible benefits received from agents and friends and travel-team flunkies while the kids were still in high school."

http://www.bruinsnation.com/2012/10/17/3515856/ucla-basketball-eligibility-and-legacy-edition

In addition, Shabazz Muhammad will be out 2-4 weeks with a shoulder injury.  Will it hold him back this year either due to missed practice time at a crucial time at the start of the year or do to the injury sticking around?

Memphis has 4 juniors that rank higher than anyone on MU.  But at Memphis its never the players that suck, its the Memphis team that sucks.  Can Aki with his knowledge of the Buzz way save the day?

Be afraid of UNLV, be very afraid.

Wisconsin w/o Josh Gasser.  How much value add do they lose?  Does Bucky losing Gasser, and MU having them at home make us the favorite to win that game?

Is Boris Bojanovsky of Florida State related to Mr. Bogangles?  Can he dance?

[dgies9156]

Look folks, it's preseason. Who cares?

The only poll that matters is the one the NCAA takes in March when we make the tournament.

Besides, any poll that has the tanned one's team ranked first is nuts. Somehow I know the tanned one will blow it.

[4everwarriors]

Look folks, it's preseason. Who cares?

The only poll that matters is the one the NCAA takes in March when we make the tournament.

Besides, any poll that has the tanned one's team ranked first is nuts. Somehow I know the tanned one will blow it.

Eloquent man, simply eloquent.

[bamamarquettefan]

Looking at Cincinnati, was trying to reconcile Value Add with the polls.. in addition to Kilpatrick I think there are a few things:

• Shaq Thomas - Was only #93 RSCI in the class of 2011, but still a lot of upside potential and was with the team last year.  He didn't play as he was a nonqualifier (NCAA didn't like his school), but did receive a waiver to be on scholarship and practice with the team.. so, not only a solid recruit, but a guy that has been with the team for more than a year already
• Mbodj - Was hurt before last season started... now 'healthy' and down 20+ pounds... not sold, but he's a big boy from Senegal that some think can play
• David Nyarsuk - NAIA guy from Sudan... 7'1". Think he was headed for WVa but didn't qualify.

Those are good notes - always trying to check on injury-limited stat projections - and do give top recruits a minimum level of where he would have been expected to project, even if missing a year, but when they play part of a year it is tough.  My low pick of them has certainly received a lot of attention, particularly after last year's preseason when I picked them as a surprise Sweet 16 team months before the 2011-12 season started.

Right around the top 25 is probably reasonable, but I could see why some might be a little too high w/their Cinci expectations...

LateNightHoops.com

[bamamarquettefan]

I think it's an absolute joke that writers and coaches vote Buzzard out of the Top 25.  This is probably his best team.  It defies logic why people, now, wouldn't at least give him the benefit of the doubt.  If Gardner and Otule stay healthy, and I realize that's a decent size if, this team can get to the Final Four.  But it's not just them:
- Jamil Wilson very well could end up being drafted next June
- Vander will be a All Big East performer (2nd team at least)
- Mayo's return is huge
- Cadougan is a senior so you would expect a light bulb to go on and stay on all year
- Lockett can help fill in for Crowder's leadership

I see the dame potential upside, but none of the NBA boards are projecting any of our players as going in next year's draft and while I see huge upside to Lockett - he was not a top 1000 player in the country.  Yes, i believe that was because he was on a terrible team that couldn't utilize his ability, BUT I can't blame the pollsters for not giving him full credit until he plays a few.

There are a ton of good teams though - and pollsters rely on just a little info such as players that were lost - and with Crowder and DJO gone I understand them initially dropping us out but we are right there.  We will find out soon enough with Ohio State waiting.

[bamamarquettefan]

The headline is a bit odd. MU didn't drop out of the poll. This is the first poll of 2012-13.
Plus, the OSU-MU game is on NBC Sports Network, not NBC.

Yes, playing with the headline a bit - but the polls do list the "dropped out" in the preseason poll in reference to teams that were in last year but are not to start the new year, but obviously it isn't really the same team.

[bamamarquettefan]

Kentucky #3 AP and ESPN, #18 Value add, perhaps a lot reputation.

UCLA - The eligibility of Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson is not yet for certain.

"It's important to note that, to the best of my knowledge, UCLA is not under investigation. It is only the players who are being investigated, the NCAA checking for possible benefits received from agents and friends and travel-team flunkies while the kids were still in high school."

http://www.bruinsnation.com/2012/10/17/3515856/ucla-basketball-eligibility-and-legacy-edition

In addition, Shabazz Muhammad will be out 2-4 weeks with a shoulder injury.  Will it hold him back this year either due to missed practice time at a crucial time at the start of the year or do to the injury sticking around?

Memphis has 4 juniors that rank higher than anyone on MU.  But at Memphis its never the players that suck, its the Memphis team that sucks.  Can Aki with his knowledge of the Buzz way save the day?

Be afraid of UNLV, be very afraid.

Wisconsin w/o Josh Gasser.  How much value add do they lose?  Does Bucky losing Gasser, and MU having them at home make us the favorite to win that game?

Is Boris Bojanovsky of Florida State related to Mr. Bogangles?  Can he dance?

All good stuff - on Wisconsin losing Gasser that does drop them all the way to 52nd in the country (he has a huge 5.88 Value Add makign him a top 100 player).  That makes Marquette a clear favorite in the Bradley Center.

[The Lens]

I'm not really counting on Trent to do more than play Dad and keep guys out of the paper. That's what need from him.

[Jay Bee]

I'm not really counting on Trent to do more than play Dad and keep guys out of the paper. That's what need from him.

Not I. Never has he been less than 22% usage guy. Won't be invisible in Milwaukee.

[Skatastrophy]

Not I. Never has he been less than 22% usage guy. Won't be invisible in Milwaukee.

It'll be interesting.  The guy's game definitely doesn't lend itself to the Pro-Am or up-and-down street ball scrimmages.  I'm excited to see what he can do during a regular game.

[Dawson Rental]

I'm not really counting on Trent to do more than play Dad and keep guys out of the paper. That's what need from him.

I believe that you will be pleasantly surprised.  I think that 13 ppg will be his floor.  He's scored that for two years running in an offense that is much less up tempo than Marquette's.  I expect that he will end up being MU's leading scorer.