ESPN Insider: Marquette has Sweet 16 potential

[Schmidtyfactor]

Can an Insider please unlock and share?

Leading up to Midnight Madness in October, ESPN Insider's "Countdown to Madness" series is previewing the top five seeds in each four regions of Joe Lunardi's preseason 2013 NCAA bracket. To read all of the team previews as they are published, click here. This is the entry for the Marquette Golden Eagles, No. 5 in the West (Los Angeles).


The key: Balance and depth

Stat to know: 256


Marquette's offense last year relied heavily on the ability of seniors Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, who averaged a combined 36 points per game. Both players scored more than 600 points for the Golden Eagles in 2011-2012. The third-highest scorer? Forward Davante Gardner with only 256.



Replacing that production will be a challenge this season for the Golden Eagles, but assistant coach Brad Autry believes the strength of the 2012-13 squad will be its balance.


"When you have a variety of guys who can score in a variety of ways, it makes it hard to figure out how to stop a team," Autry said. "I think it's going to be a different guy every night. It's not going to be one person; it's going to be us. Not just Darius or not just Jae.


"Obviously there are going to be times where someone is going to need to get 20 [points] or grab 15 rebounds, but it will be a combination of our entire team taking over those roles."

[MisterJaylenBrownMU]

"The key: Balance and depth

Stat to know: 256

Marquette's offense last year relied heavily on the ability of seniors Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, who averaged a combined 36 points per game. Both players scored more than 600 points for the Golden Eagles in 2011-2012. The third-highest scorer? Forward Davante Gardner with only 256.

Replacing that production will be a challenge this season for the Golden Eagles, but assistant coach Brad Autry believes the strength of the 2012-13 squad will be its balance.

"When you have a variety of guys who can score in a variety of ways, it makes it hard to figure out how to stop a team," Autry said. "I think it's going to be a different guy every night. It's not going to be one person; it's going to be us. Not just Darius or not just Jae.

"Obviously there are going to be times where someone is going to need to get 20 [points] or grab 15 rebounds, but it will be a combination of our entire team taking over those roles."

The backcourt of Junior Cadougan and Vander Blue, both starters last season, will once again be solid for Marquette. So should Arizona State transfer Trent Lockett, the Sun Devils' leading scorer at 13 points a game in 2011-12.

Marquette will also have depth down low, as Jamil Wilson is as versatile a big man as there is in the Big East, especially on the defensive end, and Chris Otule, who missed most of last year with an ACL tear, is expected to be 100 percent by the start of the season. Gardner, at 6-foot-8 and 290 pounds, can come off the bench and bang with anyone on the inside.

"We are going to have to have guys do more than they have ever done in their career," coach Buzz Williams said. "But I think there is potential for several of our guys to do that, in one way or another." -- Greg Rosenstein

The flaw: 3-point shooting

Stat to know: 4.1

For Marquette to contend this season in the Big East, it'll need to do a better job beyond the arc. Out of the 16 conference teams last year, the Golden Eagles were 13th in 3-point field goals made per game with 4.1 and seventh in 3-point field goal percentage at 30 percent.

Two of their top perimeter shooters from 2011-12 -- Johnson-Odom and Crowder -- graduated, and the rest of the lineup is far from a threat. Marquette's backcourt of Cadougan and Blue shot 23 and 25 percent from 3-point range, respectively, last season.

"I think what happens to players is because they are so talented, they don't have to rely on shooting," Autry said. "Vander Blue could get by anybody he wanted to in the country for the majority of his life, so he wasn't too concerned about taking shots 19 or 20 feet away from the basket. As he's continued to expand his game at a different level, he's become much more comfortable shooting the ball.

"If you look at it on paper, you go, 'Oh, they are missing some shooting.' But I think we have more than enough people to consistently make shots, as long as we take good shots. That'll be our goal."

One player who should improve this area is Lockett, whose versatility allows him to play both the shooting guard and small forward positions. As a junior at Arizona State, he made 41 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc. Autry believes Lockett will make an impact immediately.

All three guards, however, are among the conference's best at getting to and finishing at the rim. If they can become more consistent from 3-point range, Marquette has a chance to once again go deep in the NCAA tournament. -- Greg Rosenstein



The freshmen

Buzz Williams lost a number of critical players last season, and Marquette is a full year away from replacing the likes of Crowder and Johnson-Odom, two standouts who developed within the program. In the fall of 2013, their replacements will arrive. For this season, two newcomers carry the banner.

Marquette's best recruit is Steve Taylor. Taylor's a sweet-shooting combo forward who rose in the national rankings last year when he discovered an appetite for rebounding. He has legit ability to face the basket and knock down shots on the baseline and from the corners. Taylor can be a strong rebounder, but Williams will need to encourage him and hold him accountable. At his best, he's a prototypical hybrid 4-man, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the starting lineup at some point. How well he shoots in the preseason will determine how many shots he gets to take during the regular season.



Jamal Ferguson is Williams' other top recruit. The Tidewater area in Virginia has kicked out All-Americans and outstanding role players in recent years, and Ferguson is the latest. He's more role player than an all-league guy, and there are some questions about him as his final AAU and high school season didn't match his first three prep seasons, which had him on a top-100 recruit track. What we do know is he can be a blue-collar small forward and a very valuable contributor in the next four years.



Ferguson has great energy, is a good finisher around the basket and his game is middle and in. He'll have to create a position for himself, but his toughness will appeal to Williams, and with a gentle nudge from his coach, he can redefine who he is. Marquette has traditionally been a good place for guys like that. -- Dave Telep



The expectation

The Golden Eagles have made seven consecutive NCAA appearances and should comfortably make it eight in 2013, despite the loss of stars Crowder and Johnson-Odom. Buzz Williams runs a consistently efficient offense, which, when combined with Marquette's trademark toughness, is more than enough to remain among the first division of the Big East.



Cadougan, the team's senior leader, joins juniors Blue, Gardner and Wilson to form an experienced, winning core. While not likely as explosive without Crowder and "DJO," the Golden Eagles are still an NCAA-level team because Williams' system doesn't necessarily require stars. The surprise element of Marquette's success has been an unusually low reliance on the 3-point shot (314th in percentage of attempts in 2011 and 257th last year). A Williams team is thus less prone to scoring droughts and more able to manufacture points in crunch time.



I see this coming season as a more typical one in Milwaukee. Instead of pushing 30 wins and a protected NCAA tournament seed, the Golden Eagles' victory total should fall somewhere in the low 20s with an NCAA seed in the 6-7 range. A third straight Sweet 16 is possible, as is an occasional appearance in the top 25. -- Joe Lunardi

"

[GGGG]

I, for one, would be surprised to see Steve Taylor in the starting line-up during this season...at least in any way greater than how Reggie Smith did as a freshman.  First, Buzz is always going to start a true-post in Otule or Gardner.  Second, Jamil is cemented as a starting forward.  Third, he could start a center, Jamil AND Taylor, but that doesn't seem to be in Buzz's DNA.  That means two of Lockett, Blue and Mayo are coming off the bench.

So I don't think this is likely unless due to injury.

[Clam Crowder]

One thing over looked in this article is the Depth we have this year at every position besides Point (barring a huge improvement from D-Will.

PG: JR, D-Will, Vander??, Todd??
SG: Todd, Vander-if one fails the other will succeed, there will be a friendly competition here
SF: Jamil, Juan, Jamal, Trent
PF:Steve, Jamil, Ox??
C: Otule, Ox, Steve

Take away point guard, and there is a very capable second option at all positions.

Todd and Vander is simply 1 and 1a who is playing better may get more PT on a given night, and Otule and Ox are a great defense/offense combo. Add in the depth we have with Trent, Jamil, and Steve and what all three of those guys can do and I think this will be a very good team. It depends on one guy to me, Junior. If we see the Junior from late last year we will not achieve the potential we have. Juan, Jamal, and D-Will are all Wild Cards, if D-Will adds some offense (looked decent in the Pro-Am as much as that's worth), Juan can stay healthy and rebound as well as he showed he could this will be a very deep team.

[GGGG]

So we have a "very capable second option" in Steve Taylor, someone that has never played a minute of college ball, and Juan Anderson, who was far from impactful as a freshman?  But Derrick Wilson can't be a capable back up as a point guard?  You do realize that Wilson played twice the minutes that Juan did last year right?

[Stronghold]

I like Lunardi's "Marquette's trademark toughness" quote. 

[jsglow]

I don't think you win in college basketball with players 7-8-9.  I think you win with 1-2-3-4, etc.  The key to MU's depth is the chance that 1-2 players not previously projected explode into 'impact' players while our proven leaders take a solid step  ahead in their development. 

We've discussed at length the concept that 4 or more players could average double figures and that's a real positive.  From the defensive perspective, I love the ability to employee '40 minutes of hell' if Buzz chooses.

[77ncaachamps]

I like Lunardi's "Marquette's trademark toughness" quote. 

I like his projection of MU in the Big Dance and possibly the Sweet 16 better!

[tower912]

I don't think you win in college basketball with players 7-8-9.  I think you win with 1-2-3-4, etc.  The key to MU's depth is the chance that 1-2 players not previously projected explode into 'impact' players while our proven leaders take a solid step  ahead in their development. 

We've discussed at length the concept that 4 or more players could average double figures and that's a real positive.  From the defensive perspective, I love the ability to employee '40 minutes of hell' if Buzz chooses.

I think MU wins this year with players 1-7.   We can all pretty much visualize the top 7 rotation, how they fit together.    The big questions (assuming decent health and no other crises) are who emerges as the go-to guy and how much to we get from 8-12.

[bilsu]

I don't think you win in college basketball with players 7-8-9.  I think you win with 1-2-3-4, etc.  The key to MU's depth is the chance that 1-2 players not previously projected explode into 'impact' players while our proven leaders take a solid step  ahead in their development. 

We've discussed at length the concept that 4 or more players could average double figures and that's a real positive.  From the defensive perspective, I love the ability to employee '40 minutes of hell' if Buzz chooses.

Tell that to Louisville and Missouri. Certainly you can lose a lot of games when your 7, 8 and 9th players are not any good.

[Hards Alumni]

Anyone who thinks that Todd Mayo is starting over Vander Blue is out of their mind.

[Benny B]

Anyone who thinks that Todd Mayo is starting over Vander Blue is out of their mind.

Don't talk about O.J. like that.

[bilsu]

Anyone who thinks that Todd Mayo is starting over Vander Blue is out of their mind.

They are both known for defense. Only one is known for offense.

[GGGG]

Blue is a better defensive guard than Mayo, is a gifted rebounder for his size (outrebounded Jamil last year), and in the end only shot slightly less percentage wise than Mayo.  (41.3 v. 41.9)

I would be *extremely* surprised, after starting all of last year, that he ends up coming off the bench. 

[Skatastrophy]

It'll be interesting to see what they do with their extra possessions. 

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Blue is a better defensive guard than Mayo, is a gifted rebounder for his size (outrebounded Jamil last year), and in the end only shot slightly less percentage wise than Mayo.  (41.3 v. 41.9)

I would be *extremely* surprised, after starting all of last year, that he ends up coming off the bench.  

Mayo's eFG % is better because he shot (and made) more 3pters.

With this said, Vander's assist rate is better, and I think Vander's overall game is better. Also, Vander has a little more upside, especially when you consider is is actually a year younger than Todd.

If people like stats:

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?p2=todd-mayo&p1=vander-blue

If Mayo shoots well, he'll find minutes and plenty of shots coming off of the bench. He wasn't shy about shooting last year, and if he hits at a good clip this year, my guess is Buzz will green light him coming off of the bench.

[GGGG]

Mayo is a better scorer.  This means there may be situations, just like last year, where he is on the floor at the end of the game and Blue isn't.  But Mayo is exactly the type of player you want coming off the bench for an offensive spark.  Blue's overall game means he is going to get big minutes though...I would guess second on the team behind Junior...perhaps third behind Jamil.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Mayo is a better scorer.  This means there may be situations, just like last year, where he is on the floor at the end of the game and Blue isn't.  But Mayo is exactly the type of player you want coming off the bench for an offensive spark.  Blue's overall game means he is going to get big minutes though...I would guess second on the team behind Junior...perhaps third behind Jamil.

Yep. Agree.

Mayo's minutes actually might be like Gardner. When he's hot and playing well, he's going to get a lot of minutes (prob. some of Blue's min.). If he is off, or it's a bad match-up, he might only play 10-15min.

I think there are plenty of minutes available at the 3 guard positions and the subs come early and often, so I don't think it will be an issue at all.

Plus, if Lockett is as physical as some have stated, you might see him play some "Jimmy Butler PF" if Jamil gets into foul trouble.