What needs to happen for MU to get a 2 seed?

[Ellenson Guerrero]

Not that it will have a huge impact on the caliber of opponents we will draw in the tournament whether we are a 2 or a 3 seed, but MU has never been higher than a 3 seed since the tournament began seeding teams in 1979.

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/marq/

As far as I see it, this is how things stand.

1 Seeds: UK, SU, Kansas/Mizzou, Duke/UNC (depending on who wins conference tourneys)

2 Seeds: Kansas/Mizzou, Duke/UNC. Then 2 of OSU, MSU, and Marquette

3 Seeds: 1 of OSU, MSU, and MU. Then it gets more messy, with Michigan, GTown, WI, Baylor, Murray, and Indiana all having a shot. I'd go with MI, GTown, and WI for the final three 3 Seeds.

I don't think we fall off the 3 line based on the schools directly behind us in the polls, but I think we are still behind OSU and MSU in line for the remaining  2 seeds. Given that, either OSU or MSU is going to lose again. OSU is in line for a tough matchup with MI and MSU is without Branden Dawson and could fall prey to WI's grind it out style. Chances our good that one of them falls in the B10 semis. If that happens, then I think a win over Louisville and ND (assuming that is how it shapes up) seals Marquette's first ever 2 seed in the big dance.

[MerrittsMustache]

Not that it will have a huge impact on the caliber of opponents we will draw in the tournament whether we are a 2 or a 3 seed, but MU has never been higher than a 3 seed since the tournament began seeding teams in 1979.

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/marq/

As far as I see it, this is how things stand.

1 Seeds: UK, SU, Kansas/Mizzou, Duke/UNC (depending on who wins conference tourneys)

2 Seeds: Kansas/Mizzou, Duke/UNC. Then 2 of OSU, MSU, and Marquette

3 Seeds: 1 of OSU, MSU, and MU. Then it gets more messy, with Michigan, GTown, WI, Baylor, Murray, and Indiana all having a shot. I'd go with MI, GTown, and WI for the final three 3 Seeds.

I don't think we fall off the 3 line based on the schools directly behind us in the polls, but I think we are still behind OSU and MSU in line for the remaining  2 seeds. Given that, either OSU or MSU is going to lose again. OSU is in line for a tough matchup with MI and MSU is without Branden Dawson and could fall prey to WI's grind it out style. Chances our good that one of them falls in the B10 semis. If that happens, then I think a win over Louisville and ND (assuming that is how it shapes up) seals Marquette's first ever 2 seed in the big dance.

Having lost one of their top players for the season, if MSU loses their first tourney game, it really opens things up for that 2-seed (IIRC, the selection considers injuries in seeding). I actually believe that no matter what the other 2-seed contenders do, if MU wins the BET, they'll get bumped up to the 2-seed, especially if they go through Louisville, ND and Cuse.

[brewcity77]

If we win the Big East tourney, I find it hard to believe that other circumstances won't get us up to the 2-line. If we are runner-up in the Big East tourney, we need help.

Absolute chaos (like UNC, Duke, MSU, tOSU, Mizzou) all losing their first game could still get us to the 1-line. But I mean absolute chaos, and even then, it's still a stretch, and would probably require us to go through Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. Highly, highly, highly unlikely.

[MUWarrior11]

I agree with both of the first two assessments.  If we win the BET, we are probably the last #2 seed. If we don't win the BET, we are probably still the top #3 seed.

Do we really want to be the last #2 seed and be shipped out West? Or would we rather a #3 seed and perhaps be placed in the Midwest. In order to answer that question, I guess you have to answer this one: How important is geographical placement in the Big Dance? Does it really matter? Would playing in Columbus and then St. Louis give us an edge over, say, Portland and then Phoenix?

Looking back...wow. They love to ship us out West. Since 2003, Marquette has played exactly TWO Tourney game within 850 miles of Milwaukee, and we won them both (Xavier and 'Cuse in 2011).

2006- San Diego (Oakland Regional)
2007- Winstom-Salem (New Jersey Regional)
2008- Anaheim (Houston Regional)
2009- Boise (Glendale, AZ Regional)
2010- San Jose (Syracuse, NY Regional)
2011- Cleveland (Newark Regional)

[MUMac]

If we win the Big East tourney, I find it hard to believe that other circumstances won't get us up to the 2-line. If we are runner-up in the Big East tourney, we need help.

Absolute chaos (like UNC, Duke, MSU, tOSU, Mizzou) all losing their first game could still get us to the 1-line. But I mean absolute chaos, and even then, it's still a stretch, and would probably require us to go through Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. Highly, highly, highly unlikely.

If we win the BE Tourney, we will be on the 2 line.  We are very close to MSU/OSU.  The loser will drop off the two line and replaced by MU.  If MU makes the finals, I believe they will also end up on the two line, if OSU loses.  If MSU loses, it may be a bit more dicey.

Edit:  Assumption is MSU/OSU in Big 10 Finals. 

[dwaderoy2004]

Yesterday in a chat, Lunardi said we would be a 2 seed if we won the BET.  I think there are other scenarios that we can get one, but that would lock us in.

[brewcity77]

I agree with both of the first two assessments.  If we win the BET, we are probably the last #2 seed. If we don't win the BET, we are probably still the top #3 seed.

Do we really want to be the last #2 seed and be shipped out West? Or would we rather a #3 seed and perhaps be placed in the Midwest. In order to answer that question, I guess you have to answer this one: How important is geographical placement in the Big Dance? Does it really matter? Would playing in Columbus and then St. Louis give us an edge over, say, Portland and then Phoenix?

Looking back...wow. They love to ship us out West. Since 2003, Marquette has played exactly TWO Tourney game within 850 miles of Milwaukee, and we won them both (Xavier and 'Cuse in 2011).

2006- San Diego (Oakland Regional)
2007- Winstom-Salem (New Jersey Regional)
2008- Anaheim (Houston Regional)
2009- Boise (Glendale, AZ Regional)
2010- San Jose (Syracuse, NY Regional)
2011- Cleveland (Newark Regional)

It's all about match-ups. First of all, no matter which regional we end up in, I'm confident we'll end up playing fairly close to home. Most likely Columbus, Louisville, or Nashville. We'll be one of the first 10 teams assigned, and one of those spots will be open when they get to our seed.

As far as the West...my guess is the 1-seed will go to Duke, UNC, MSU, or tOSU. I'd love to get a shot at one of those Big 1? teams, but definitely don't want UNC and think Duke would be tough. But who'd get the 2/3 opposite us? If we're the 2 and looking at a Florida, Michigan, Indiana or Baylor, I'd love that, especially with a likely neutral court in Phoenix. If we're a 3 and looking at UNC or Duke with the 2-seed, I'm not quite as attracted to that.

[dgies9156]

The only way we'll be a two seed is if we win the Big East tournament.

It's possible!

Let's think about this! We'd have to likely beat Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse.

Heck, if we win those three in three days, we probably should be a 1 seed!!!!!!!!!

[Ellenson Guerrero]

The only way we'll be a two seed is if we win the Big East tournament.

It's possible!

Let's think about this! We'd have to likely beat Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse.

Heck, if we win those three in three days, we probably should be a 1 seed!!!!!!!!!

I think I laid out a fairly plausible scenario as to how we get a two seed without winning the BET. Suppose MI beats Iowa/Illinois, but loses to WI in the B10 semis. Also assume we beat Louisville and ND, but fall to SU in the BEast title game (not my actual prediction just an assumption for demonstration purposes). That would leave MU at 27-7 with runner up finishes in both the BEast regular season and tournament. It would put MSU at 25-8 with a co-B10 championship, but losses in three of their last four and a key player lost for the season. That result definitely favors MU for the 2 seed.

[MU82]

I'm for whatever seed and placement gets us MSU in the regional semifinals. With Dawson out and with other matchups, that is the team I'd most like to face.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Having lost one of their top players for the season, if MSU loses their first tourney game, it really opens things up for that 2-seed (IIRC, the selection considers injuries in seeding). I actually believe that no matter what the other 2-seed contenders do, if MU wins the BET, they'll get bumped up to the 2-seed, especially if they go through Louisville, ND and Cuse.

yes that happens, just ask Huggins about Kenyon Martin   

[real chili 83]

All we have to do is win baby.

Really looking forward to the potential match up on Friday night!!!  Just hope we don't look past who we  have to go up against on Thursday.

 

[THEultimateWARRIOR]

I don't understand why people are disagreeing that we can get a 2 seed without winning the big east tournament. Its simple, If Ohio St. or Michigan State loses their first game and we beat Louisville and Notre Dame we will be the 2 seed.

[NavinRJohnson]

If we beat UofL, I'm pretty sure we're going to win the thing. In that scenario, I think we could end up as a 1 seed...would have to be ahead of Mizzou (not Kansas). Clearly we would be no less than a 2 seed, which I think we could be almost regardless.

I think MU is probably better than MSU, OSU, and Duke. Doesn't mean we will be seeded ahead of all three of them, but I think there is a good chance that could bear itself out this week.

End of the day, outside of getting a 1 seed, I don't think it matters, and I don't really care. 2 or 3 seed, out West or close to home...doesn't matter (other than the degree of difficulty for my own travel). Matchups will be key as they always are.

[brewcity77]

If we beat UofL, I'm pretty sure we're going to win the thing. In that scenario, I think we could end up as a 1 seed...would have to be ahead of Mizzou (not Kansas). Clearly we would be no less than a 2 seed, which I think we could be almost regardless.

Syracuse and Kentucky are locks for #1 seeds. I honestly don't think anything we can do will get us ahead of Kansas. Unless they lose to the Oklahoma/A&M winner, they will absolutely, positively, no matter what stay ahead of us. Even then, we would have to beat Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse (specifically) while also having both Ole Miss and Washington make runs to get us the top-50 wins we need.

The only way we have a shot at a 1 is if none of Duke, UNC, Ohio State, nor Michigan State win their conference tourneys. Ideally, we'd need none of the ACC teams to even make the final to have a chance to pass them.

2 is the best we can realistically hope for.

[MUBurrow]

It's all about match-ups. First of all, no matter which regional we end up in, I'm confident we'll end up playing fairly close to home. Most likely Columbus, Louisville, or Nashville. We'll be one of the first 10 teams assigned, and one of those spots will be open when they get to our seed.

As far as the West...my guess is the 1-seed will go to Duke, UNC, MSU, or tOSU. I'd love to get a shot at one of those Big 1? teams, but definitely don't want UNC and think Duke would be tough. But who'd get the 2/3 opposite us? If we're the 2 and looking at a Florida, Michigan, Indiana or Baylor, I'd love that, especially with a likely neutral court in Phoenix. If we're a 3 and looking at UNC or Duke with the 2-seed, I'm not quite as attracted to that.

To that end - it actually kind of sucks when the Pac-10 and the Texas & Oklahoma big 12 teams are this pathetic. When there were two or three good squads out of the Pac 10 and the western Big 12 states, those teams would tend to occupy those Western tournament sites, and an MU team with this kind of resume would be a little more assured of staying close to home. Granted, then its of course harder to get to the point where youre a 2 or 3 seed at all, but I'd gladly drop a line from the 2 to the 3 to stay closer to home. The 3 to the 4, not so much.

[MarquetteDano]

To that end - it actually kind of sucks when the Pac-10 and the Texas & Oklahoma big 12 teams are this pathetic. When there were two or three good squads out of the Pac 10 and the western Big 12 states, those teams would tend to occupy those Western tournament sites, and an MU team with this kind of resume would be a little more assured of staying close to home. Granted, then its of course harder to get to the point where youre a 2 or 3 seed at all, but I'd gladly drop a line from the 2 to the 3 to stay closer to home. The 3 to the 4, not so much.

I am pretty sure I want the Western Regional.  We will be in a pod close to home for our first two games regardless of the West Regional. So that has no impact.  It is the next two games that matters.  Do we really want to play iin any other regional for those two games without major upsets?

Syracuse in Boston?
Kentucky, North Carolina, or Duke in Atlanta?
Kansas or Missouri in St. Louis?

At least out West there are no powerhouse teams that will bring in 3-4 times our fan base.  It would be a true neutral game.