Role of Freshmen Next Year

[Lennys Tap]

27 mpg from Otule and Gardner seems like a lot. I don't think there's any way we get 40 combined out of them. I mean, that's tripling Gardner's minutes...a very steep hope.

Agree. They almost never play at the same time, so 40 minutes would mean one of them was in at all times. Won't happen, sometimes Buzz will play small.

[TedBaxter]

I will go out on a limb and say Todd Mayo is underrated and in my opinion, very underrated.  I'm still not sure how many recruiting analysts have actually seen him play if they didn't go to one of the prep school tournaments this year.  He played some AAU ball, but again, I'm not sure how much. 

Here's a quote from his Germantown (TN) High School coach about what he did at the high school level for that team as a senior and this is why it wouldn't surprise me if he played a combo role at times next year. 

"Todd starts the game for us as a shooting guard, but as the game goes forward in the second, third and fourth quarters, the ball naturally goes into his hands because he's so skilled at running a team and handling the basketball," Mealer says. "There just aren't many flaws that he's got right now. As far as on the high school level, his game is just above a lot of people."

The one thing I've seen from him in prep school video is how patient he is with the ball and he kind of has an "old man's game" and I say in respect to how patient he is.  Just kind of gauges what the defense is giving and then attacks the weakness.  At Notre Dame Prep he would score 27-30 points and if you watched the video, it didn't look like he was getting that many shots because they played so much isolation action and the ball was spread around.

I know there are questions about his defense, but the one thing I see is that he has the athletic ability and strength to succeed or even excel on defense.

[Marquette84]

Agree. They almost never play at the same time, so 40 minutes would mean one of them was in at all times. Won't happen, sometimes Buzz will play small.

I don't think I'm out of line with other predictions.

Sultan predicts a combined 40 mpg for Otule & Gardner
2002 predicts a combined 40 mpg
Brew City predicts a combined 36 mpg

So my 40 mpg prediction doesn't seem out of line.  I don't know whether to be flattered or concerned that you thought enough to comment when I essentially said the same thing that 3 others posted ahead of me.

I fully expect Otule and Gardner to improve from their season end performance where they were already putting in a combined 33 mpg.   If they both increase their average mpg by just 3 minutes a a game, that's 40 mpg combined.

I agree that sometimes Buzz will go small--but I would guess that it means Crowder or Wilson plays up--not that one of the frosh get off the bench to take that spot.

[GGGG]

I actually intentionally picked them to combine to 40 mpg.  I figure over the course of the season, they will play together about 5 mpg and without either 5 mpg.

However, if someone adds them up to 35 mpg, I wouldn't argue.  It is certainly more in line with what Buzz has done in the past.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I figure 40 minutes from Gardner and Otule for a few reasons:

#1 Crowder has had some difficulty staying out of foul trouble, and given MU's lack of depth at the PF position, I would hate to "waste" Crowder's minutes and fouls at a position (C) where MU has 2 players who can play.

#2 I've heard great things about Jamil Wilson, but I haven't seen him play enough to know if he can play effective minutes at either PF or C to make Otule or Gardner sit.

#3 Lastly, it isn't inconceivable for both Gardner and Otule to be in the line-up at the same time, but my guess is that will be more of a science experiment than something we see every game.

Maybe the follow-up question is, if they don't get all 40min at C, who is taking those extra minutes?

[Lennys Tap]

Based on last year Buzz will play either Otule or Gardner most of the time, neither some of the time and both almost never. That's why I think they'll combine for less than 40 minutes per game.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Based on last year Buzz will play either Otule or Gardner most of the time, neither some of the time and both almost never. That's why I think they'll combine for less than 40 minutes per game.

You are 100% correct.

I'm sure Buzz will experiment again, but I just don't see who is going to take more than 3min/game at the Center position outside of Otule and Gardner.  

I just don't see anybody on the roster that can fill the role, without sacrificing some of Jae's minutes, which will leave Buzz with a potential depth problem at PF.

Who is taking the minutes as Center?

[Windyplayer]

27 mpg from Otule and Gardner seems like a lot. I don't think there's any way we get 40 combined out of them. I mean, that's tripling Gardner's minutes...a very steep hope.

Who else is going to get those minutes at the 5? I have no problem with them on the court for those minutes. I expect Gardner to be in tip-top shape to start the season. He knows he's good and can be significantly better if he gets in better shape. Otule shouldn't have a problem with the increased minutes.

[GGGG]

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I think that Otule and Gardner will see about 22 and 11 respectively. We probably go small more often than we ever play the two together.

So going back to my original post, that frees up an additional 7 minutes for someone.  Juan?  Jamail?  Someone else?

I think it is obvious that unless a returner like Jamail gets major minutes, some freshman is going to be playing minutes like Vander did last year.

[bilsu]

I think you have to look at the end-of-season performance.  We were already getting close to that out of them.

Otule and Gardner combined for an average of 33.5 mpg in the six games in the BET and NCAA tournaments.  40 combined doesn't seem unreachable.

I could see that happening in some games, but I would think if Buzz wants to press neither will be on the floor.

[NersEllenson]

You giver credit for Mayo for playing a fifth year of high school and ignore the fact that Singleton started two years in college and has a third year as a redshirt. Mayo was only rated an 89. Wilson is rated 90 and recruits ranked that low just do not play as freshmen in the Big East, especially for a team that already has DJO, Cadougan and Blue. Jones was rated 94 or 95 and did not play.  Williams was rated high also and did not play. Unless you think that Mayo and Wilson were significantly underrated there simply is no reason to expect them to play as freshmen. Of course you can point to Gardner and say ratings do no matter. However, in Gardner's case he is a center, were MU does not have much depth. The biggest thing for Buzz is whether the player can play defense. Anderson and Wilson have a shot to play because of that. Mayo at this point is just known for shooting. We already have Jones for that and he did not play as a freshmen.

I'm a Singleton fan..actually..but didn't classify him as a freshman due to having 2 years of college ball experience.  My take is that Singleton will get the backup minutes at PG, and Wilson won't see the court as a freshman or much as a sophomore.  Mayo is a very good athlete who will be capable of defending at this level.  His 89 rating is what it is, but many feel he came on late and was practivally unstoppable, and maybe the best player in his Prep School league  -which featured some high4-star talent.  From the little I've seen of Mayo (clips) he has a great feel for the game, playes with a great tempo/pace - much like a D-Wade (not saying he's gonna be close to D-Wade) but seems to play with a cerebralness...compare that to a DJO who I love-  but DJO would greatly benefit if he could play the game with more rhythm/hesitation/shake and bake.  I suspect DJO probably isn't a very good dancer..not too smooth...lots of herky jerk with DJO...Mayo is smooth.

[brewcity77]

Who else is going to get those minutes at the 5? I have no problem with them on the court for those minutes. I expect Gardner to be in tip-top shape to start the season. He knows he's good and can be significantly better if he gets in better shape. Otule shouldn't have a problem with the increased minutes.

Who took them last year when the two of them averaged less than 27 mpg? Mostly Crowder, and if Jamil Wilson can guard the 5, he'll get his time there as well.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Who took them last year when the two of them averaged less than 27 mpg? Mostly Crowder, and if Jamil Wilson can guard the 5, he'll get his time there as well.

Yes, but that is because Jimmy could slide to the #4 spot easily.

To be honest, Gardner and Otule's minutes will probably be determined by Jamil Wilson's ability to play the #4 spot. If he can, then Jae can move over and play some #5. If Jamil is a true #3, then I don't think you can risk putting Jae at #5 and wasting his fouls/minutes.

[slingkong]

Who else is going to get those minutes at the 5?

There just wouldn't be a 5 on the court at that time, at least size-wise.  There'd be a 1, some combination of three 2s and 3s, and a biggish guy like Crowder.  On the D end Crowder would guard the opponent's biggest guy, but that would just require careful substitution and clock management by Buzz to prevent the opponent from subbing in a real big against Crowder.

[bilsu]

What worries me the most about Mayo's 89 ranking is his name. He has a famous brother and I cannot help but think rankings are influenced by that. The same goes for Zeller who is going to Indiana. I am sure he is very good, but he had the benefit of his brothers reputation before him as he was hyped as being the best of the three brothers.  However, it is possible, because of his brothers trouble, big programs stayed away form Mayo and that had a negative effect on his rating. To me his ranking is very questionable and I have no idea whether it is high or low. However, I do not expect him to play much, if 89 is his true ranking.

[Lennys Tap]

What worries me the most about Mayo's 89 ranking is his name. He has a famous brother and I cannot help but think rankings are influenced by that. The same goes for Zeller who is going to Indiana. I am sure he is very good, but he had the benefit of his brothers reputation before him as he was hyped as being the best of the three brothers.  However, it is possible, because of his brothers trouble, big programs stayed away form Mayo and that had a negative effect on his rating. To me his ranking is very questionable and I have no idea whether it is high or low. However, I do not expect him to play much, if 89 is his true ranking.

If 89 is accurate he will play very little next year. If it's high, he'll likely play very little in his career. If it's low (as I hope and to some degree expect) he could help next year and could turn into a stud.

[NersEllenson]

What worries me the most about Mayo's 89 ranking is his name. He has a famous brother and I cannot help but think rankings are influenced by that. The same goes for Zeller who is going to Indiana. I am sure he is very good, but he had the benefit of his brothers reputation before him as he was hyped as being the best of the three brothers.  However, it is possible, because of his brothers trouble, big programs stayed away form Mayo and that had a negative effect on his rating. To me his ranking is very questionable and I have no idea whether it is high or low. However, I do not expect him to play much, if 89 is his true ranking.

Many top programs, including Kansas, came on late for Mayo's services.  WVU and Huggins wanted him badly.  He was considered one of, if not the best guard prospect available in the spring signing period.  We've seen with Gardner, and contrasting that with Blue and Jamail Jones - that sometimes the rating number doesn't always tell the whole story.  Keep in mind he put up better numbers than Lazar did at Notre Dame prep, and was playing stiff competition day in day out in that Prep School league.

[brewcity77]

Many top programs, including Kansas, came on late for Mayo's services.  WVU and Huggins wanted him badly.  He was considered one of, if not the best guard prospect available in the spring signing period.  We've seen with Gardner, and contrasting that with Blue and Jamail Jones - that sometimes the rating number doesn't always tell the whole story.  Keep in mind he put up better numbers than Lazar did at Notre Dame prep, and was playing stiff competition day in day out in that Prep School league.

+1

While guys do get overrated based on name value, I don't think that's the case with Mayo. The numbers he was putting up against some of the top prep players in the nation were incredible. I do believe that he was initially (2 years ago or so) overrated because of his name, and when he bounced between schools, he dropped. But once he was able to settle in and actually play, he showed that he wasn't just OJ's little brother. I have no idea if it will translate to the D1 level, but his recent play indicates he's more likely underrated than overrated.