Overachievers in the NCAA Tournament

[ChicosBailBonds]

For you Nate Silver fans

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/in-n-c-a-a-tournament-overachievers-often-disappoint/

[brewcity77]

Interesting article, glad to see it indicates ND won't be going to the Final Four. While I wish the best for all Big East teams, I don't want to see them go that far.

[Rollout-the-Barrel]

Very interesting stuff. Thanks!

[AlienWarrior]

I am not a fan of ND but ya gotta like their team this year. They are what the college game used should be, a mix of hard working upperclassmen who have put it together with very good but not great talent. They distribute the ball and play good help team defense. They are a team and are more fun to watch than a superstar dominated group, at least for me.

[Lennys Tap]

What this shows is that teams who vastly overachieve preseasons expectations (like Marquette last year) aren't merely ones whose talent was greatly underrated. They are indeed actual overachievers whose relative lack of talent is exposed on the big stage of the tournament. Bears out what many of us have said all along.  Hope 84 reads this study.

[ChicosBailBonds]

What this shows is that teams who vastly overachieve preseasons expectations (like Marquette last year) aren't merely ones whose talent was greatly underrated. They are indeed actual overachievers whose relative lack of talent is exposed on the big stage of the tournament. Bears out what many of us have said all along.  Hope 84 reads this study.

Or it says the pollsters typically don't know what the hell they are talking about, especially in the preseason.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

I think ND is vastly overrated. We crushed them at our place and let them off the hook in South Bend. I'd love to play them again.

[Lennys Tap]

Or it says the pollsters typically don't know what the hell they are talking about, especially in the preseason.

I know that this is a mantra you never miss a chance to repeat but I fail to see how this study proves it.

[HouWarrior]

His words are not conclusively proven by the stats ---all 2 (top 8)and 3 (top 12)seeds that make it to the sweet 16 and/or elite 8 have met expectations. His list is replete with those examples.

Despite the statistical leap, the writer is probably right---ND likely will lose on weekend two---about right. It plays less well away from home(as we know), and when they are shooting poorly, and not clicking--they can be beaten, even badly.
Digger ---RIP.