Next Year's Big East - Who Improves, Who declines, where does MU fall in?

[Silkk the Shaka]

Next year, MU loses Butler, Buycks, and Fulce.  Butler's career speaks for itself.  That's a huge loss.  Buycks was only a part-time starter, but played a lot of minutes the last two years.  Fulce's role has unfortunately been limited due to injury.

Who will replace them?

4 star Jamil Wilson gets his red shirt lifted and he will have to replace a good amount of Jimmy's production.  He's a different kind of player, but I think he will give us a lot of quality minutes.

Vander Blue can step in and fill Buycks' void.  I think he'll make a great leap forward next year, much like five-star Abdul Gaddy of Washington did from last year to this year prior to his injury.  They were very similar players as freshmen - limited offensively but defensive specialists off the bench.  Here are Blue's stats followed by Gaddy's:

Blue:
SEASON    TEAM    MIN    PTS    REB    AST    TO    A/T    STL    BLK    PF    FG%    FT%    3P%    PPS
2010-2011    MARQ    20.1    5.8    2.9    1.8    1.5    1.24    1.0    .2    1.8    .419    .623    .167    1.13

Gaddy:
SEASON    TEAM    MIN    PTS    REB    AST    TO    A/T    STL    BLK    PF    FG%    FT%    3P%    PPS
2009-2010    WASH    18.2    3.9    1.4    2.3    1.7    1.31    .5    .1    2.4    .417    .564    .150    1.01
2010-2011    WASH    23.2    8.5    2.5    3.8    1.2    3.06    .8    .1    1.8    .500    .818    .406    1.25

Pay particular attention to the increase in percentages.  Vander's much-maligned shot has an excellent chance to improve significantly this offseason.  I don't think they will see a leap that drastic, but I believe he will look like a far different player offensively, approaching Buycks' production (percentage-wise).

Buycks:
SEASON    TEAM    MIN    PTS    REB    AST    TO    A/T    STL    BLK    PF    FG%    FT%    3P%    PPS
2009-2010    MARQ    23.6    6.3    3.0    2.1    1.7    1.28    1.2    .0    1.7    .418    .694    .273    1.10
2010-2011    MARQ    29.2    9.5    3.1    3.9    2.4    1.63    1.1    .1    1.7    .473    .700    .419    1.30

I think Fulce's minutes and production get replaced by Erik Williams pretty seamlessly.

Juan Anderson or Jamail Jones will have to replace Blue's minutes and production, and I think one of them will be able to, or maybe the responsibility gets split between the two.

Assuming DJO & Crowder produce at the same rate and the Otule/Gardner center combo improves slightly, we're looking at virtually the same overall talent level.



How does that stack up against the rest of the Big East next year?

Teams Likely to Regress

St. John's:
They lose their six top players in terms of minutes played and production to graduation.  They replace them with six four-star freshman "switchables."  Odds are they take a short-term step back next year due to inexperience.

Notre Dame:
They lose five of their top six players in terms of minutes and production to graduation.  They replace them with one four-star freshman SF.  As of now, next year's roster looks NIT bound.

Georgetown:
They lose Austin Freeman, Chris Wright, and Julian Vaughn, three of their top five players in terms of minutes and production to graduation.  They have 2 four-star centers and a four-star shooting guard coming in as freshmen and probably undercalssman talent on the bench, but they will likely take a short-term step back next year as well.

Villanova:
They lose Corey Fisher, Antonio Pena, and Corey Stokes, three of their top five players in terms of minutes and production to graduation.  They have a four-star PG, SG, and C coming in as freshmen and lots of talent on the bench, but like Georgetown I see them taking a short-terms step or treading water next year.

Seton Hall:
They lose Hazell and Jeff Robinson to graduation.  We've all seen how they play without Hazell.  They keep Pope and Theodore, but they have a 3 star center and a lot of two stars coming in as freshmen.  They should be an auto-win again in no time.

Pitt:
They lose Wannamaker, Brown, and McGhee to graduation.  They have a five-star C, a four-star C, and a four-star SG coming in as freshmen, but freshmen bigs usually take time to develop.  They'll probably still be a top 25 team with Gibbs, Woodall and their other talent, but not the juggernaut they've been this year.  A year or two from now they'll be gunning for the title again.

West Virginia:
They lose three of their top five minutes-eaters in Mitchell, Flowers, and Mazzulla.  They have some nice three-stars coming in, but no one likely to make a huge impact.  Still a potential tournament team, just not as good as this year.

Cincinnati:
I hesitate to put them here because a lot of their best players are sophomores and juniors, but their excellent defense this year has been predicated upon bringing the pressure with fresh legs.  Four of those pairs of legs are graduating seniors.  They have a four-star SF coming in and some nice three-stars, but I don't think they'll be as tough as they were this year.  Still a tournament team, just not as suffocating defensively.

Likely to improve

Syracuse:
The only player they lose to graduation is Rick Jackson.  They have some stud underclassman C's on the bench right now, and they add a five-star C, five-star SG and a four-star SG to the mix.  I think they're the favorite for the Big East title next year as well as the next several years.

Louisville:
The only player they lose to graduation is Knowles.  They play a ton of underclassmen major minutes and three juniors primed to take the reins as seniors next year.  They also add a five-star SG, a high four-star PF, and a four-star C.  They will be tough next year and down the line as well.  I think they're 1B to Syracuse's 1A next year.

Wild Card

UConn:
They're kind of a one-man team this year with Walker, but they have a ton of talented underclassmen getting major minutes.  Walker is their only likely departure.  They could really go either direction.

Bottom-Feeders Likely to Stay That Way

DePaul:
They have a couple nice freshmen, but they're still DePaul.  No threat.

South Florida:
The only significant contributor they lose is Famous and they'll have a core of seniors, but those seniors won't be very good and they have no one coming in.  I just hope we don't have to play them in Tampa....

Providence:
They lose Marshon Brooks and have no one coming in.  They will scare no one.

Rutgers:
They play a lot of underclassmen and they have a couple four-stars and three high three-stars coming in.  They might get themselves up to Seton Hall's 2011 level in a couple years, but I don't think they should be any major threat next year.




So where does that put MU?

Syracuse and Louisville are the early favorites.  I don't think we can catch them.  That leaves us fighting with
Pitt, Cincinnati, UConn, Villanova, WVU, and Georgetown for the double-bye.  With everything those teams are losing, we have a legit shot at that elusive top 4 seed and at the very worst should be a tournament team with plenty of room to spare on Selection Sunday next year.

Anyone else see it differently?  Is there anything I'm overlooking with the other teams (i.e. underclassmen like Blue that should improve)?

[ChicosBailBonds]

It would be disappointing if we finished another year in the bottom half of the conference.  With the talent we have, I don't suspect that will happen.

[willie warrior]

Good analysis. IMO next year is the evaluation year for Buzz. Looks like many of the teams lose a lot, so we need to finish in top 5 of conference, or I do not believe Buzz will get an extension. It looks like the BEast will slip some next year, so we should be able to do that. Some predictions, however: Blue will not be a starter next year--not at PG, and not at 2G. DJO will need to step up big time next year. Starting line up:
PG Cadougan
2G DJO
SF Crowder
PF Wilson
C Otule
If Gardner drops 10 more pounds and improves his conditioning, he will push Otule for minutes. Doubt if Buzz would do it, but I would like to see Gardner at PF a bit with Otule once in a while.

[MU_Iceman]

I wouldn't discount DePaul as a team that could make a big leap.  I'm not saying they find their way into the top half of the league, they're still a long ways out from that.  But their three Freshman (Melvin, Young, and Morgan) came on VERY STRONG at the end of the season; they have a PF transfer from Miami who will be available in November that, from all accounts, is a nice talent on the inside; they return Wallace from injury who is limited offensively, but is a freak of nature athletically who should fit nicely into Purnell's run and gun scheme, and they have a few talented recruits coming in - particularly the kids from the Chicago Public league who have been fantastic all year long.

Again, I'm not saying that this is a tournament team next year, but I wouldn't assume they're a bottom feeder.  My guess, NIT for them next year and The Tourney in 2012 / 2013 for the Blue Demons.

[brewcity77]

Looking from the top to the bottom this year, here are my thoughts:

Pittsburgh -- Steady: Pitt loses three big-timers in Wanamaker, McGhee, and Brown, but as long as Ashton Gibbs comes back, they'll be fine. He's an early POY candidate for next year. I expect Dante Taylor and Nasir Robinson to provide grit down low, with Taylor breaking out next season in a big, big way. Travon Woodall is a great young PG in the wings. They'll contend for another Big East title.

Notre Dame -- Down: The Irish will take a big step down. I still think they'll be in the mix for an NCAA berth, but probably in the 9-11 range of the conference. Atkins is very good, as is Joey Brooks, but beyond that, they have a lot of questions. Can Cooley and Dragicevich step up? Will they find more answers in their incoming class? It will be a tough road.

Louisville -- Up: It's almost not fair. Only one senior leaving, and a host of options there to replace him. I see them battling it out with Syracuse for the Big East title. The guy who really scares me next year is Gorgui Dieng. He wasn't consistent this year, but is a shot-blocking force and could really get good in a hurry.

Syracuse -- Up: Really? Rick Jackson is the only guy leaving this team? And they have Melo and Keita waiting in the wings? Not to mention Rakeem Christmas, who won't even have to contribute next year. Pencil them in as next year's Big East champions.

St. John's -- Down: I'll be curious to see what the opinions are on Lavin next year. Similar to Buzz, he inherited a fantastic crop of seniors, but in his second year he'll have even more question marks than Buzz had. Will he still be a genius as the Johnnies likely fall to the bottom five of the league and struggle to make the NIT? They have promise for the future, but that future is not next year.

West Virginia -- Steady: As long as Kevin Jones returns (and why wouldn't he?) they have a go-to guy who is a POY candidate, though he failed to deliver on that promise this year. Along with Truck Bryant, they have a solid core despite losing Mazzula, Mitchell, and Flowers. Huggy Bear won't wow you with what he has, but there's enough there to be in the upper-middle class of the Big East yet again.

Cincinnati -- Up: I'm hesitant on this, as they lose a lot of role players. But in Thomas and Dixon, they'll have a fantastic backcourt, and Gates and Jackson could really be scary up front. Their recruiting class isn't particularly star-studded, but does look like it has guys who will be able to eat some minutes. I'll go out on a limb to say that Cronin's side could be challenging to get into the top four next year, given how other teams may fall off.

Georgetown -- Down: They lose a lot, and are Jason Clark and Henry Sims ready to take over? What they really will need are contributions from Nate Lubick and Markel Starks. If their young kids don't grow up in a hurry, the Hoyas will be fighting for their NCAA lives a year from now.

Connecticut -- Up: The seniors they lose won't really hurt them much as it will make way for a group of talented younger players. Walker will likely head to the NBA, but that could actually help UConn. This year, they can only go so far as he will carry them. Next year, they'll have a dynamic sophomore backcourt in Napier and Lamb, with another high-level point guard coming in in Ryan Boatwright. Oriakhi, Coombs-McDaniel, and Roscoe Smith are the basis of a dominant frontcourt. I honestly think UConn will be better without the one-man show of Walker than they are with him because there is so much untapped talent. They should contend for the top 4, and are a dark horse to compete with Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville for the title.

Villanova -- Down: Wayns and Yarou are in a position to become very good players. I believe in Wayns, I'm not yet sold on the inconsistent Yarou. They lose so much and will need James Bell and Dominic Cheek to go from roleplayers to frontline starters. Losing that much experience can't help them. They should still be an NCAA team, but they'll be on the fringe.

Marquette -- Up: In terms of point guard play, losing Buycks could be addition by subtraction. He did a good job considering, but having a natural point in Cadougan there should help shore up the ballhandling issues. Butler leaves, but despite being consistently good, was never the dominant leader they needed. Crowder and DJO are primed to bear the scoring load, Wilson is the natural replacement for Butler, and guys like Blue, Otule, and Gardner will only benefit from another year of experience. They should be back to their regular 5th-7th place finish next season, though making the top four would be a bit of a surprise.

Seton Hall -- Down: Theodore and Pope are fine players, but hardly able to replicate the production of the outgoing Hazell and Robinson. And even if they do, who can step into their roles? I can see Fuquan Edwin contributing, but beyond him, there is very little talent here. They'll be a bottom four team.

Rutgers -- Up: They lose their best player in Mitchell, which means guys like Biruta and Miller have to step up. The real question for them will be point guard. If Tyree Graham and incoming top-100 Myles Mack can provide solid guard play, Rutgers could improve a bit. They still won't be NCAA quality, but they could be in the running for the NIT.

Providence -- Down: Right now, they're a one-man team, and that one man is headed out of town. I expect they'll have a decent backcourt, as both Council and Coleman are solid, but who plays up front? And who can spell the two of them? Awful recruiting class. I expect them to be propping up the rest of the league.

South Florida -- Up: The only guy they lose is Famous. While there isn't much coming in, I expect Poland and Gilchrist to form a nice one-two punch. While they don't have a great incoming class, they have a lot of decent guys who will be better. They'll still be hovering in the dregs of the Big East, but like Rutgers, could be in the running for the NIT.

DePaul -- Up: They return their top 5 scorers, including the excellent freshman duo of Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young. Shane Larkin could be a pretty nice player for them from day one. No, they're not an NCAA team yet, but they might win 5-6 games and if they schedule the non-conference well could get on the NIT bubble. Oliver Purnell has spent his first year quietly assembling a pretty nice team, at least by recent DePaul standards. They won't be a bottom feeder for much longer.

Predicted Finish

1) Syracuse
2) Louisville
3) Pittsburgh
4) Connecticut
5) Cincinnati
6) Marquette
7) West Virginia
8) Georgetown
9) Notre Dame
10) Villanova
11) Rutgers
12) St. John's
13) South Florida
14) DePaul
15) Seton Hall
16) Providence