Bracketology: brew style

[brewcity77]

Okay guys, I've heard so much about people wondering how close we are, so today I decided to start really looking at the bubble and how soft it was. To the point that I used the RPI, SOS, kenpom, and S-Curve ratings, along with factoring in who teams have beat, what bad losses they have, and the other little factors that come up constantly at this time of year. And with all that in mind, I made my own NCAA bracketology attempt. Most will probably not care, because what's my opinion worth, but if you do, Marquette is in the field as a 10 seed, and that is after factoring in the Cincy loss. They were a high 9 before tonight, and would have climbed to an 8 or even possibly a 7 with a win, but the loss dropped them.

Here's a breakdown of some of the commonly asked questions.

Top Seeds: Ohio State is the top overall seed and got the East Region. No surprise that Kansas also earned a #1 seed in the Southwest. What may surprise some is Purdue getting a #1 seed over Duke, BYU, and Texas. Their play of late has been excellent, while all the other #1 candidates have stumbled a bit. Pittsburgh rounds out the #1 seeds, but gets sent out West after losing 2 of 3. For the record, I didn't have BYU on the top line even before their loss tonight. I simply don't believe they were ever there when you account for who they've actually beaten of any note.

Big East Teams: No surprise, the Big East gets 11 bids. Pitt leads the way with a #1 seed, followed by Notre Dame with a #2. Syracuse, St. John's, and Louisville are all very close and carry 3 and 4 seeds. Georgetown's great RPI keeps them on the 5-line, while West Virginia flip-flopped with UConn, moving up to a 5 while the Huskies dropped to a 6 after tonight's Mountaineer win. Cincy was a 7 before beating Marquette, and stays there simply because no one on the 6 line really warrants dropping yet. Villanova's recent slide has them down to an 8-seed, and our Warriors round out the field with a 10.

Line Surprises: Texas' recent slide has them down to a 3-seed; despite some very impressive wins, they simply don't have a resume of the top two seed lines. I also have Utah State a bit higher than some sites at a 6-seed. Their SOS is weak, but their RPI and wins are off the charts and they are pretty good at taking care of business.

Marquette's Road: A first-round rematch with Missouri would be no picnic, but a possible second-round clash with BYU might not be so bad in light of Davies' dismissal. The Sweet 16 would likely pit the Warriors against Syracuse, if they made it that far, unless Utah State or Virginia Tech could pull off an upset.

Last Four In: I was amazed as I looked at the teams just how weak the field is. None of these teams really look like deserving at-large teams to me. Then again, neither did most of the 11-seeds, and the 10's look like bubble teams at best. Anyway, Richmond gets in because they take care of business. No glaringly bad losses, only one really impressive win (Purdue) but enough overall work to make the field. Their play-in opponent, Washington State, is similar. One bad loss, not many great wins but a few good ones. Still, I'm amazed that .500 PAC-10 team is good enough to get in. St. Mary's also makes the cut, but barely. I don't get why this team gets so much love. Their RPI is okay, but what have they done? Beat St. John's in November? Beat Gonzaga in January (offset by losing to Gonzaga last week)? And an awful loss to San Diego. But they won a lot of games, and there just aren't that many good teams. Finally, Butler is the last team in, though god knows why. Too many bad losses, I thought. But they have a good RPI and have played well of late, and they're last year's runners-up, which shouldn't matter, but with a bubble this soft, just might edge them in.

First Four Out: Memphis' loss to East Carolina dropped them out of the field, making their 34 RPI the highest out. Despite plenty of wins, there just isn't enough quality. Wins over UAB and Gonzaga are offset by losses to SMU, Rice, and East Carolina. They are followed closely by Clemson. The Tigers just don't have any wins that make you take notice. While that's characteristic of many of the bubble teams, their low RPI and weak SOS keep them outside looking in. Alabama is a team that was tough for me to keep out looking at their resume. 12-4 in the SEC, wins over Kentucky and Tennessee, and only one really bad loss, that should do it, right? But their non-conference was awful. Not just a weak SOS, but they went 8-6, losing to the likes of Providence and Iowa. And this list rounds out with Baylor. Losing 3 of their last 4 pushed them out (including Texas Tech at home), and it would take either a win over Texas on Saturday or a titanic effort in the Big 12 tourney to get them back in.

[77ncaachamps]

Oh, I thought this was like Colin Cowherd's Tournament with Rock Bands...only this time, beer brands were going to be used!

My bad!

[JerryWizig]

I wouldn't be surprised to see BYU drop to a 3, especially if they lose early in the MWC tournament. However, if they stay at a 2, that'd be the best matchup for MU in the second round of all the 1s or 2s on the board. San Diego State wouldn't be bad either.

I think the worst matchup for MU is Purdue. I'd rather play anyone else in the field in the second round than the Boilermakers.

[Masterr73]

Im not that mad about the game today. If they beat hall and only get past the first round of the BE tourney then MU would be a most likely 10 seed where they could face a BYU or a SDSU. I'd much rather have that than being trapped in basketball tournament hell that is the 8 or 9 seed.

[JerryWizig]

Most years, I wouldn't mind being the 8 or 9 seed. I like the idea of getting a 1 seed that first weekend when it may be a little rusty after playing a 16 or looking ahead to the Sweet 16. But this year there will be relatively weak 2 seeds like BYU minus Davies or San Diego State.

[brewcity77]

I wouldn't be surprised to see BYU drop to a 3, especially if they lose early in the MWC tournament. However, if they stay at a 2, that'd be the best matchup for MU in the second round of all the 1s or 2s on the board. San Diego State wouldn't be bad either.

I think the worst matchup for MU is Purdue. I'd rather play anyone else in the field in the second round than the Boilermakers.

Purdue and Ohio State are the two top seeds that I least want to see. I think both BYU and San Diego State will be ripe for the picking, and I also wouldn't mind Duke. I know they're good and handled us the first time, but I think we'd have a shot in a rematch. However, it's probably unlikely we'd be podded with them considering we already faced them this year.

One interesting thing with the 11 bids is it makes it highly likely that Big East teams will be meeting by the Sweet 16, unless the conference craps the bed. I really wouldn't want to see St. John's, Cincinnati, or Louisville at that point. I know that many think we'd handle the 'Ville, but I think we've been exposed by the press and those teams have the blueprint to stop us. I also think Notre Dame could be tough if they go to the burn, we may match up well with them, but if they dictate pace, we'll be given fits. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind seeing Syracuse, Georgetown, UConn, or even Pitt. Georgetown without Wright would be a much easier foe, while I think we did pretty good against the other three.