[Cracked Sidewalks] Explaining the Big East tiebreakers - what determines where MU finishes between 6th and 11th

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Explaining the Big East tiebreakers - what determines where MU finishes between 6th and 11th

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

Marquette enters the last two games of the season in 9th place, or should I say in 4th place of the potential mini-conference of six teams with seven losses.  The Big East tie-breaking procedure can be confusing, so here is a table that explains the various tie-breakers that will settle if MU gets a bye in the Big East tournament or not.

Mini-conference teamMini winsMini lossesTop win tiebreakerRemain[/tr]

Georgetown	MU Vil	Cin UCon WVU	2nd 3-Lville & 4-SJU	at CIN
Villanova	Cin MU WVU	Gtn Ucon	3rd 3-Lville	at ND at Pit
Connecticut	Cin MU Vil Gtn	MU	5th/6th None	at WV vND
Marquette	Ucon WVU	Gtn Ucon Vil	4th 5-Syr	vCIN atSH
Cincinnati	Gtn	Ucon Vil WVU	1st 3-Lville & 4-SJU	at MU vGTN
West Virginia	Cin Gtn	MU Vil	5th/6th None	vUCON vLOU

Barring Syracuse blowing their final game when they host DePaul, these are the six teams that will finish between 6th and 11th place and the order they are in (Gtown 7th, then Nova, UConn, MU, Cincy and WVU) based on the tie-breakers:

1st tiebreaker mini-conference record - when more than one Big East team is tied for a spot, you start by breaking out the tied teams into a "mini-conference" and only consider games within this conference.  Currently, Georgetown is not really in the "mini-conference" because they are 10-7 while the other five teams are tied for 7th through 11th at 9-7.  If the season ended today, the Georgetown games listed would not count and Nova and UConn would be 7th and 8th based on a 3-1 mini-conference record for the final two byes, MU at 2-2 in 9th, WVU at 1-2 in 10th and Cincy at 0-3 in 11th.  However, if the Hoyas fell into the mini-conference that would add a loss to MU and drop us to 10th at 2-3.

So on this count we want teams who have beaten MU to fall out of the conference, so a key is for MU to have a better record than Nova in the last two - a real possibility with Nova travelling to Notre Dame and Pitt while MU hosts Cincy and goes to Seton Hall.

2nd tie-breaker head-to-head - If MU ties another team within the mini-conference, then head-to-head determines who is ahead.  MU wins a secondary tie-breaker with WVU, but loses one to Georgetown or Nova.  If it ended today, UConn would then get 7th place based on beating Nova, who would thus drop to 8th.

On this count you can see how huge the Cincinnati game is, because the winner of that game will have a game-lead and the tie-breaker with one left, so would have the edge even if the teams had the opposite result in their respective finales.  Therefore, if MU loses to Cincy they would have almost no chance for a bye even with a win over Seton Hall (WVU would have to beat UConn, Nova lose at ND and Pitt, and UConn would have to beat WV & ND for MU to finish 8th and get a bye after a loss to Cincy).

3rd tie-breaker win over team highest in BE standings - Who beat the highest ranked team in the entire conference?  If the first two tie-breakers can't settle the seed, then the comparison goes to which team beat the highest ranked team.  However, there is a strange caveat that 2-game splits against a team don't count either way, which really screws MU since the win over Notre Dame is offset by the loss against ND, so MUs biggest win is over 5th place Syracuse.

That means Cincinnati and Georgetown beat everyone else if it gets to this point since they both beat 3rd place Louisville AND 4th place St. Johns, while Nova beats anyone else because of their win over Louisville, but MU would win this tiebreaker over UConn or WVU since MU beat Syracuse and neither UConn or WVU has a win against any of the top 5 teams.

Confused yet?  Well, I believe I have it, but I must confess if you see a mistake in this please reply.  If you want a more simple list of which games are most important in getting MU the highest in the standings.

Who to root for
1. MU over Cincy
2. MU over Seton Hall
3. Pitt over Nova
4. ND over Nova
5. Cincy over Gtown
6. WVU over UConn
7. WVU over Lville
8. ND over UConn
9 (bonus) DePaul over Syracuse

If #1, #2, (#3 or 4), #5, #6 and #7 happen, then MU is 6th.  If DePaul somehow wins, there is a great chance MU finishes 5th place with two wins.

Finishing in the top three in the mini-conference for the first round bye is very important because MU is solidly in the tournament right now, and a bye insures no shocking loss to one of the bottom teams in the conference to potentially get bounced out.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/02/explaining-big-east-tiebreakers-what.html

[willie warrior]

Check your top wins for MU. We beat ND who is currently in 2nd place. Does that move us up?

You are right--it is confusing. I said earlier, you need a HAL 9000 to run the results for you. Thanks for the analysis.

[copious1218]

Check your top wins for MU. We beat ND who is currently in 2nd place. Does that move us up?

You are right--it is confusing. I said earlier, you need a HAL 9000 to run the results for you. Thanks for the analysis.

We also lost to ND so it doesn't help us that much as we would not gain an advantage on anyone who has only played ND once (per BE rules - if a team would be able to obtain the same record as you by playing the same number of games, no advantage is gained).  However, if a team were to play ND twice and be 0-2 (potentially UConn) we would gain an advantage if tied with that team.

[copious1218]

OP,

Why do we want WVU to beat L'Ville?

[Daniel]

Thanks for posting.  Whew.  I like the "Who to root for part" 'cause I understand that completely

[willie warrior]

We also lost to ND so it doesn't help us that much as we would not gain an advantage on anyone who has only played ND once (per BE rules - if a team would be able to obtain the same record as you by playing the same number of games, no advantage is gained).  However, if a team were to play ND twice and be 0-2 (potentially UConn) we would gain an advantage if tied with that team.

Man, now we need a rule book the size of an Encyclopedia to make these determinations.

[brewcity77]

OP,

Why do we want WVU to beat L'Ville?

I'll try to see if I can figure why we want teams to win/lose these games, and add others that may be pertinent:

1. MU over Cincy Duh, we want to go 11-7
2. MU over Seton Hall See above
3. Pitt over Nova Not needed if we finish 11-7, but getting them to 9-9 means we only need 1 win to avoid a team that beat us in mini-con
4. ND over Nova Already happened! Yay!
5. Cincy over Gtown If we beat Cincy, this ensures neither team makes the mini-con, especially G'Town who beat us
6. WVU over UConn Keeps UConn out of the mini-con, WVU can't really hurt us
6.5 Providence over Lville Drops Lville to mini-con, which helps us if UConn beats WVU because UL beat UConn twice and us only once
7. WVU over Lville Drop Lville to mini-con, WVU can't hurt us
8. ND over UConn Keep UConn out of mini-con, ND guaranteed top 4 anyway
9 (bonus) DePaul over Syracuse We beat Syracuse in mini-con, chance at finishing 5th

Now here are the projected finishes (based on kenpom individual game results) and what we should expect...

1) Pittsburgh 15-3
2) St. John's 13-5 (wins tiebreak over ND because they beat Pitt while ND split with Pitt)
3) Notre Dame 13-5
4) Louisville 12-6 (UL beats 'Cuse on head-to-head tiebreak)
5) Syracuse 12-6 (GO DEPAUL!!!)
6) Marquette 11-7 (MU beats WVU on head-to-head tiebreak)
7) West Virginia 11-7
8) Connecticut 10-8 (Wins 8-10 mini-con with 2-0 record)
9) Cincinnati 10-8 (2nd in 8-10 mini-con with 2-1 record)
10) Georgetown 10-8 (Last in 8-10 mini-con with 0-3 record)
11) Villanova 9-9

I think the bottom line is we just have to win. If we do that, we are guaranteed of getting at least into an 11-7 mini-conference. If we do that, we would compare favorably against Syracuse and West Virginia, while we only struggle against UConn (hope to god Louisville and Syracuse drop down). Georgetown is another threat if they get to 11-7 with us, which means we'd hope for WVU and Syracuse to be in there with us. If we get to 11-7, neither Cincy nor 'Nova will be in a mini-con with us.

In terms of importance, our two games are the biggest. The only way we get to 5th or 6th is if we go 11-7. For me, next up is DePaul beating Syracuse. It's highly unlikely (3% per kenpom) but we NEED to win both and have DePaul win for us to have a chance at 5th place. Besides, DePaul beat Providence on the road, Providence beat Villanova, and Villanova beat Syracuse at the Carrier Dome, so it actually seems pretty likely .

After that, we need Cincy to beat G'Town, which ensures neither make the mini-con, either WVU or ND to beat UConn to keep them out (or Providence and WVU to both beat Louisville if UConn wins out), and last Pitt over 'Nova (in case we drop a game) to ensure they finish 9-9. If we go 11-7, though, this game doesn't mean a thing to us.

As far as the other games upcoming...only St. John's at Seton Hall and St. John's against USF can have any bearing on a mini-conference, and only for us if SJU loses both and falls to 11-7. Highly unlikely, but if it does, they have a head-to-head win over us and their best conference win is over #1 Pitt. They really don't help us at all in a mini-conference, so let's just root for SJU to win. No other game is of any significance, as it's either a top team against a non-qualifier or it's bottom feeders.

I hope this helps...I've been working on it for about over an hour

[brewcity77]

Another question...how do they determine top win for tied teams? Say UConn, Georgetown, and Marquette all win out, and Syracuse drops to DePaul. All four finish 11-7.

Syracuse 2-2 (Best win: #2 Notre Dame)
G'Town 2-2 (Best win: #4 Louisville)
Marquette 2-2 (Best win: #? Syracuse)
UConn 2-2 (Best win: #? Georgetown)

Do we get the edge because Syracuse beat Notre Dame, or are all four teams considered equal when determining mini-con results, thus leaving us and UConn on equal footing?

Either way, it's very confusing, and I'm just pulling for 11-7 and hoping the rest will sort itself out to 6th or better.

[copious1218]

Brewcity,

On your first post your tiebreaker between St. John's and ND is wrong (I believe).  STJ and ND both only played PITT once and both teams won.  And since they split the season series it would go (if only the two of them are tied) to their games against L'Ville.  ND beat L'Ville and STJ lost.

So, I am pretty sure ND would have the tiebreaker at 13-5.

[brewcity77]

Brewcity,

On your first post your tiebreaker between St. John's and ND is wrong (I believe).  STJ and ND both only played PITT once and both teams won.  And since they split the season series it would go (if only the two of them are tied) to their games against L'Ville.  ND beat L'Ville and STJ lost.

So, I am pretty sure ND would have the tiebreaker at 13-5.

You're right, I re-checked and ND would take 2nd. Checking so many sites and schedules 'til my eyes were near bleeding, I thought ND split with Pitt

Thanks

[copious1218]

Another question...how do they determine top win for tied teams? Say UConn, Georgetown, and Marquette all win out, and Syracuse drops to DePaul. All four finish 11-7.

Syracuse 2-2 (Best win: #2 Notre Dame)
G'Town 2-2 (Best win: #4 Louisville)
Marquette 2-2 (Best win: #? Syracuse)
UConn 2-2 (Best win: #? Georgetown)

Do we get the edge because Syracuse beat Notre Dame, or are all four teams considered equal when determining mini-con results, thus leaving us and UConn on equal footing?

Either way, it's very confusing, and I'm just pulling for 11-7 and hoping the rest will sort itself out to 6th or better.

This one is very convoluted.  UConn winning out means they also get a win v. ND.  It could also mean STJ is tied with ND so when the teams are going down the list (all 4 lost to PITT) you would have to count ND and STJ as a group. 

If ND is alone in second I believe GTown is eliminated because they lost to ND while Cuse beat ND and Uconn/MU split with ND (there is no advantage gained by Cuse over Uconn/MU because had they played ND twice they could have lost their second game).  This creates a new mini-con with Cuse/Uconn/MU where MU is 2-1, Cuse is 1-1, and Uconn is 1-2.  At that point, winning percentage wins out and the finish would be MU, Cuse, Uconn, GTown.

If ND is tied with STJ for second you have to include their games as well and that puts Cuse at 2-0, and GTown/Uconn/MU at 1-2.  Then the new mini-con means UConn is 2-1, GTown 1-1, and MU 1-2.  Creating a finish of Cuse, Uconn, G'Town, and then MU. 

First, if anyone finds any errors please let me know.  Second, I don't think Depaul will beat Cuse so this is somewhat moot.  Third, I really hope we win out and Cincy can knock off G'Town while Uconn and West Va both lose again leaving us alone at 11-7 for sixth.

[brewcity77]

This one is very convoluted.  UConn winning out means they also get a win v. ND.  It could also mean STJ is tied with ND so when the teams are going down the list (all 4 lost to PITT) you would have to count ND and STJ as a group. 

If ND is alone in second I believe GTown is eliminated because they lost to ND while Cuse beat ND and Uconn/MU split with ND (there is no advantage gained by Cuse over Uconn/MU because had they played ND twice they could have lost their second game).  This creates a new mini-con with Cuse/Uconn/MU where MU is 2-1, Cuse is 1-1, and Uconn is 1-2.  At that point, winning percentage wins out and the finish would be MU, Cuse, Uconn, GTown.

If ND is tied with STJ for second you have to include their games as well and that puts Cuse at 2-0, and GTown/Uconn/MU at 1-2.  Then the new mini-con means UConn is 2-1, GTown 1-1, and MU 1-2.  Creating a finish of Cuse, Uconn, G'Town, and then MU. 

First, if anyone finds any errors please let me know.  Second, I don't think Depaul will beat Cuse so this is somewhat moot.  Third, I really hope we win out and Cincy can knock off G'Town while Uconn and West Va both lose again leaving us alone at 11-7 for sixth.

ND beat UConn earlier this year, so even if UConn wins, their ND win is nullified just like ours is. And yeah, DePaul winning is a virtual impossibility, but we can always dream. If we win out, I really think 6th is a pretty fair likelihood, and top 8 is a virtual lock.

[copious1218]

ND beat UConn earlier this year, so even if UConn wins, their ND win is nullified just like ours is. And yeah, DePaul winning is a virtual impossibility, but we can always dream. If we win out, I really think 6th is a pretty fair likelihood, and top 8 is a virtual lock.

I'm not sure if you were correcting something wrong but I stated Uconn winning out means both us and UConn split with ND.

Agreed, I have already spent too much time analyzing a scenario I do not think will play out.

[brewcity77]

I'm not sure if you were correcting something wrong but I stated Uconn winning out means both us and UConn split with ND.

Agreed, I have already spent too much time analyzing a scenario I do not think will play out.

Gotcha...I thought you were saying their ND win would count as a tiebreaker. Yes, this is far too complicated. Even after hours of analysis, it feels about as accurate as tossing darts into a spiraling wind tunnel.

[Benny B]

I hope this helps...I've been working on it for about over an hour

You're lucky... I spent 20 minutes adapting a game theory macro to come to the same conclusion and I got accused of needing to get laid 

[Windyplayer]

a game theory macro

Enough said.

[Marqus Howard]

In terms of importance, our two games are the biggest. The only way we get to 5th or 6th is if we go 11-7. For me, next up is DePaul beating Syracuse. It's highly unlikely (3% per kenpom) but we NEED to win both and have DePaul win for us to have a chance at 5th place. Besides, DePaul beat Providence on the road, Providence beat Villanova, and Villanova beat Syracuse at the Carrier Dome, so it actually seems pretty likely .

With Melvin out for the year now, it's looking more and more unlikely. We can always dream though.