MU Takes A Huge Jump In Rankings After Uconn Win

[Tugg Speedman]

Here are the latest rankings that incorporate the Uconn win:

Ken Pomeroy
Rank = 29
SoS = 28

Favored in last three games
Prov 85% chance of winning
at SH = 60% of winning
Cincy = 52% of winning

Real-Time RPI
RPI = 51
SoS = 27

Favored in last three games
Prov by 17 points
at SH = by 3 points
Cincy = by 3 points

Sagarin
Rank = 30
SoS = 10

Sagarin has MU 4 and 10 against the top 25 (1 - 7 on the road/neutral).  This is the most top 25 games in the country. This does not include Vandy that is ranked 26.  So 15 of our 28 games (54%) this year have been played against Sagarin top 26 teams.  We still have Cincy as Sagarin has them ranked 15th (and maybe more top 25 teams in the BE tourney).

Sagarin has us favored in the last three games
Cincy = 87.71
MU = 85.35
SH = 79.50
Prov = 78.15

Add four points for the home team and subtract the scores to get the favored (and predicted point spread).

ESPN's Inside RPI
RPI = 54
SoS = 31

[g0lden3agle]

How accurate is the Sagarin metric of who's favored in a game and by how much?  If I were to bet purely on discrepancies I see in the spread of the game at a sport's book and what Sagarin has projected, how much money would I be raking in?

[Tugg Speedman]

That is a good question.  You can say the same for Real-time RPI and KenPom as well.

I'm sure someone has studied it but I have not seen it.

[esotericmindguy]

How accurate is the Sagarin metric of who's favored in a game and by how much?  If I were to bet purely on discrepancies I see in the spread of the game at a sport's book and what Sagarin has projected, how much money would I be raking in?

It's funny you bring this up, last year I bet discrepancies of 5 points or more between line and Kenpom. They were few  and far between but we were 10-2 in those games. We tried 3 and 4 point differences but without the success. For whatever the reason 5 was the lucky number.....haven't bet as much this year but yes you should compare the two, 95% of the time they are within a point.