KenPom SOS Update

[Tugg Speedman]

KenPen updated his stats through yesterday's (Feb 13, Georgetown) game

We went from #27 overall to #28.

What I found more interesting, however, was the SOS stats

Year           SOS        non-conf SOS
2011           28                299
2010           46                149
2009           45                163
2008           40                163
2007           46                238
2006           20                172
2005           95                223
2004           96                220
2003           52                54

Thoughts
So far 2011 is our second toughest schedule in the last 9 years (that is all the data KenPom has).  But notice that our non-conf SOS was pitiful at 299, far and away the worst ever (and this includes a game with Duke!).  While he does not keep conf SOS for all schools, I have to believe it has been our most difficult in the last 9 years to get a 28 SOS with a 299 non-conf SOS dragging us down.

Given we still have five regular season games and the BE tourney and NCAA (yes, NCAA!) still to come, we have at least 7 more games and could still get this down near 2006 and a 20 SOS.  See 2003, the 54 non-conf SOS is because of the final four run and all the tough games on neutral courts.

See the 2004 and 2005 SOS compared to 2006 to current.  This is the difference between the BE and CUSA. And, why "no bad losses" on a 28 SOS should mean something.

Any other thoughts?

[brewcity77]

One thought: we schedule the wrong cupcakes.

[T-Bone]

Duke, Gonzaga, Wisco, and Vandy in the non-conference schedule and still 299?

The thing about the cupcakes is scheduling is done far enough in advance that it's hard to predict what they are going to do.  We could, presumably, try to schedule the reigning SunBelt champ a couple years ahead of time and by the time we get them, they have fallen to the bottom.   
Just throwing out a possible scenario.  I don't know how far out commitments to play are made, and don't mean to pick on the SunBelt FAU fans all 2 of you.

[MUDPT]

Does the non conf SOS include post season games?  It has to be.  There is no way that 2003: Neutral Villanova, home to Wisconsin, @ ND, and @ Dayton is that much better than this years.  So maybe it will go down, IF we make the tournament.

[Marquette84]

Does the non conf SOS include post season games?  It has to be.  There is no way that 2003: Neutral Villanova, home to Wisconsin, @ ND, and @ Dayton is that much better than this years.  So maybe it will go down, IF we make the tournament.

You missed the game against Wake Forest halfway through the conference season.

And it seems that you're ignoring the fact that the bad teams get averaged with the same weight as good ones.

Here's exactly why 2003 was a stronger schedule: Using Pomeroy ratings, the 2003 team had zero opponents ranked worse than 300.

The 2011 team has five, plus #294 South Dakota.

Put this in perspective--our weakest opponent in 2003 was #293 Grambling.  This year we have six opponents--nearly 50% of our non-conference schedule--that are weaker than the worst team we played in 2003.

[MUDPT]

Makes sense, still surprising.

[willie warrior]

KenPen updated his stats through yesterday's (Feb 13, Georgetown) game

We went from #27 overall to #28.

What I found more interesting, however, was the SOS stats

Year           SOS        non-conf SOS
2011           28                299
2010           46                149
2009           45                163
2008           40                163
2007           46                238
2006           20                172
2005           95                223
2004           96                220
2003           52                54

Thoughts
So far 2011 is our second toughest schedule in the last 9 years (that is all the data KenPom has).  But notice that our non-conf SOS was pitiful at 299, far and away the worst ever (and this includes a game with Duke!).  While he does not keep conf SOS for all schools, I have to believe it has been our most difficult in the last 9 years to get a 28 SOS with a 299 non-conf SOS dragging us down.

Given we still have five regular season games and the BE tourney and NCAA (yes, NCAA!) still to come, we have at least 7 more games and could still get this down near 2006 and a 20 SOS.  See 2003, the 54 non-conf SOS is because of the final four run and all the tough games on neutral courts.

See the 2004 and 2005 SOS compared to 2006 to current.  This is the difference between the BE and CUSA. And, why "no bad losses" on a 28 SOS should mean something.

Any other thoughts?

yeah--only schedule 3 cupcakes per year.

[brewcity77]

yeah--only schedule 3 cupcakes per year.

I think that's a bit unrealistic because you still need to get around 9-12 non-con wins. The cupcakes make that easier. I think the key is to pick the conferences better. Instead of another SWAC team, why not pick a team from the Missouri Valley? Even if they fall off, the odds are that a Southern Illinois, Bradley, or Evansville still won't fall below 200-250. Or a West Coast Conference team, where the bottom team is around #300. As long as the team you pick isn't the bottom at the time, the odds are you'll be getting a team around #200, and if they are #300, that's still a lot better than Centenary. How about a C-USA team? Houston, Tulane, and SMU are the bottom three teams there, and they're all still top 200. If you base the cupcakes off the conference and focus on the better mid-majors, you'll likely be able to stack wins in the 175-250 range, which will do wonders for our end-of-season SOS.

[Tugg Speedman]

SOS varies ....

Service        MU       Wisc
KenPom       28         27
Sargin         11         20
College RPI   31        36

Saragin and RPI have MU with a tougher RPI.  Sargin and RPI also have the BE as the toughest conference.

KenPom has the B10 as the toughest conference and Wisc. with a  slightly better RPI.

Pick your poison