Look At Pre-season rankings and how bad they were

[Tugg Speedman]

Seems like this year lots of pre-season teams are in jeopardy of missing the tourney.

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http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/year/2011/week/1/seasontype/2

Pre-season #1 was Duke and as I noted in another thread, their schedule is very weak.  KenPom has their win over MU as their second best win of the year.  Not at risking of missing the dance but hardly the best team in the country.

Michigan State, started the year pre-season #2 and now unranked.  Now 13-10 overall and 5 - 6 in the B10.  Korie L. has been dismissed from the team and looking like a lock for the NIT.

When was the last time a pre-season #2 failed to make the tourney?

Kansas State, started the year pre-season #3 and now unranked.  Now 16 - 8 overall and 4 - 5 in the B12.  Bubble team

When was the last time a pre-season #3 failed to make the tourney?


North Carolina, started the year pre-season #9 and now unranked (USA).  Now 17 - 5, 7 - 1 in a very weak ACC with the tough games coming.  Should be ranked next week but hardly a top 10 team.  Ranked on reputation, not actual ability.

Gonzaga started the year pre-season #12 and now unranked.  Overall 15-9 and 5-3 in the WCC.  Bubble team.

Baylor started the year pre-season #14 and now unranked.  Overall 15-7 and 5-4 in the B12. Bubble team

Butler started the year pre-season #18 and now unranked. Overall 15-9 and 7-5 in the Horizon.  NIT bound.

Tennessee started the year pre-season #20 and now unranked. Overall 15-8 and 5-3 SEC with a bunch of bad losses on the schedule (Oakland, College of Charleston, Charlotte, Arkansas). Bubble team.

[Marquette84]

Seems like this year lots of pre-season teams are in jeopardy of missing the tourney.

---

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/year/2011/week/1/seasontype/2

Pre-season #1 was Duke and as I noted in another thread, their schedule is very weak.  KenPom has their win over MU as their second best win of the year.  Not at risking of missing the dance but hardly the best team in the country.

Michigan State, started the year pre-season #2 and now unranked.  Now 13-10 overall and 5 - 6 in the B10.  Korie L. has been dismissed from the team and looking like a lock for the NIT.

When was the last time a pre-season #2 failed to make the tourney?

Kansas State, started the year pre-season #3 and now unranked.  Now 16 - 8 overall and 4 - 5 in the B12.  Bubble team

When was the last time a pre-season #3 failed to make the tourney?


North Carolina, started the year pre-season #9 and now unranked (USA).  Now 17 - 5, 7 - 1 in a very weak ACC with the tough games coming.  Should be ranked next week but hardly a top 10 team.  Ranked on reputation, not actual ability.

Gonzaga started the year pre-season #12 and now unranked.  Overall 15-9 and 5-3 in the WCC.  Bubble team.

Baylor started the year pre-season #14 and now unranked.  Overall 15-7 and 5-4 in the B12. Bubble team

Butler started the year pre-season #18 and now unranked. Overall 15-9 and 7-5 in the Horizon.  NIT bound.

Tennessee started the year pre-season #20 and now unranked. Overall 15-8 and 5-3 SEC with a bunch of bad losses on the schedule (Oakland, College of Charleston, Charlotte, Arkansas). Bubble team.

Those pre-season rankings are a perfect reflection of reality. Any deviation from pre-season rank is simply under- or over-performance.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Preseason polls historically show that about 43% of the teams change.  Week to week volatility is about what it has been in past years--within range. 

http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/report_preseason_volatility

http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/volatility

[Lennys Tap]

Those pre-season rankings are a perfect reflection of reality. Any deviation from pre-season rank is simply under- or over-performance.

No way. There is no such thing as over or under performance. Teams with the most talent always win and things such as coaching, effort, etc are meaningless.

[Marquette84]

No way. There is no such thing as over or under performance. Teams with the most talent always win and things such as coaching, effort, etc are meaningless.

I'm not sure what your point here.

Are you trying to suggest that MU's 2010 season was merely over-performance and none of the credit can be given to the actual coaching, talent, effort, etc.?  

Or are you finally coming around to my point of view that all of those pre-2010 projections were simply wrong--we had far better talent, coaching and effort etc. than the 12th place expectations you and so many others had for the team?

The irony of Another 84's initial post was that last week he agreed with the sentiment that MU over-achived.  This week he shows a number of deviations from pre-season picks--but this time says "Look At Pre-season rankings and how bad they were."

[Tugg Speedman]

The irony of Another 84's initial post was that last week he agreed with the sentiment that MU over-achieved.  This week he shows a number of deviations from pre-season picks--but this time says "Look At Pre-season rankings and how bad they were."

Over-achieved last year, not this year.

[Marquette84]

Over-achieved last year, not this year.

Yeah.  I know.

Last year with MU you assumed that the projections were correct and MU "over achieved"
This year with the 8 teams you listed, you declare that the projections themselves were bad.

I'm just questioning why this year its not a case of teams themselves under- or over-achieving.