Lundari (ESPN) has 11 BE Teams In The Tourney (MU last from BE, 55% chance)

[Tugg Speedman]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog?name=ncbexperts&id=6033299

Look closely and you'll see that this week's bracket is more than a little historic. For the first time ever, we've got 11 teams from a single conference in the projected NCAA field. That's E-L-E-V-E-N, as in I can barely count that high, from the B-I-G East.

The single-season record for bids from a conference is eight, which the post-expansion Big East has produced in two of the past three seasons. A new slogan -- "11 for '11!" -- may be in order if the current landscape holds.

More impressive than the actual number is the proportional dominance the Big East could establish with 11 of its 16 teams (68.8 percent) in the NCAA field. This would trump the 7-for-11 showings (63.6 percent) from the Big Ten in 1994, 1999, 2001 and 2009.

All of which leaves two questions: (1) How likely is this to happen? (2) How would it impact the bracket?
In terms of likelihood, there are essentially three Big East "swing" teams at this point. Let's put the top eight -- the Pittsburgh Panthers, Syracuse Orange, Connecticut Huskies, Villanova Wildcats, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Louisville Cardinals, Georgetown Hoyas and West Virginia Mountaineers -- in the field. All have tournament odds at 85 percent or better at this point. So we're looking at the St. John's Red Storm (75 percent), Cincinnati Bearcats (60 percent) and Marquette Golden Eagles (55 percent) as the key players in the "11 for '11!" chase.

Crunching a few more numbers gives us the following probabilities:

8 bids: 76.95 percent
9 bids: 57.71 percent
10 bids: 34.63 percent
11 bids: 19.05 percent

The wiseguy in me says to set the over/under for Big East bids at 9.5; the basketball person in me likes the "over," even though the odds are pointing the other way.

Of the three swing teams, Marquette -- currently the last at-large selection -- seems to have the best combination of personnel and remaining schedule. I like the Golden Eagles more than their 55 percent odds suggest.

St. John's and Cincinnati are a more interesting contrast. The Red Storm have far better wins and far worse losses. The Bearcats built a gaudy record without much beef on their schedule. As the two teams happen to be repeat opponents (in New York on Jan. 22, in Cincinnati on Feb. 13), their head-to-head meetings figure to be critical. It helps the league if they split; it's much more likely that one will get picked over the other with a sweep.

Bottom line: I'm taking the "over" and betting on 10 Big East teams in the NCAA tournament. And I'm looking for St. John's and Cincinnati to actually play a third time in the Big East tournament to decide it.

Finally, how will the selection committee manage a bracket that is one or two (or three!) teams over the established comfort zone of eight? Obviously, the principle of no teams from the same conference meeting before a regional final goes out the window. So, straight from the NCAA's explanations of seedings, we see:

"Conference teams shall not meet prior to the regional final unless a ninth team is selected from a conference. If the Committee is unable to reconcile the bracket after exhausting all reasonable options, it has the flexibility to waive this principle to permit two teams from the same conference to meet each other after the second round."

Most would read this as saying that no conference members in the "ninth team" scenario could meet prior to the Sweet 16. However, with the establishment of the inaugural First Four games this season, the "second round" is what we've always known as the first round (64-to-32) and the newly named "third round" (32-to-16) is the old second round. So it is possible, perhaps even likely, that two Big East teams could meet for a second, third or fourth time after just one NCAA game apiece.

But, as my father liked to say, "We'll jump off that bridge when we get to it."

[marquette99]

I like it. After the next four games we could feel like a lock or be completely discouraged.  What a run we have coming.  As I've said - I believe 10-8 and we are definitely in with what the be has done.

[brewcity77]

I like it. After the next four games we could feel like a lock or be completely discouraged.  What a run we have coming.  As I've said - I believe 10-8 and we are definitely in with what the be has done.

10-8 is no lock. It only means we would really have two quality wins, quite possibly no good road wins, and no non-conference wins. 11-7 will have us squarely on the bubble, probably in the 8-11 range, while we have to go 12-6 to be definitely in. Not factoring in the BEast tourney.

[willie warrior]

If we keep playing like we have since BEast play--minus the Louisville melt down, I am not buying that we are 11th to get in. Lunardi's picks will keep changing as season goes on. Right now, we deserve to get in before Cinncy, Georgetown, West Va., and No Dick.

My prediction, and one that is a big if, is that we will also knock off Syracuse. They are quickly becoming hated, right near ND and Louisville.

[jficke13]

10-8 is no lock. It only means we would really have two quality wins, quite possibly no good road wins, and no non-conference wins. 11-7 will have us squarely on the bubble, probably in the 8-11 range, while we have to go 12-6 to be definitely in. Not factoring in the BEast tourney.

absolutely no way 11 wins keeps us out. of course i'd love to have 11 wins (or more) but i'm inclined to think that 10 gets us in as well.

[marquette99]

Brewcity - how do we get to 10 wins with onlý 2 quality wins?  Do you mean 2 MORE quality wins?  We can only get to 8 wins by beating teams not projected to finish in the rpi top 32 last I checked, so 10-8 means at least 4 quality wins and zero bad losses, or more likely 5 quality wins and one bad loss.the "non-conference quality win" is not a consideration - that is thrown around for mid-majors who don't have many quality wins in conference.  4 to 5 quality wins, 10-8 in easily the top rpi conference with mirror games against 2 ranked teams, rpi around 50 and sos around 35, we're just now getting left out IF we go 10-8.  If we were to win 12 again we'd be back around where we were last year, a 6-seed.

[bamamarquettefan]

Forecast RPI has MU as an 8-seed if Sagarin's Predictor plays out and MU goes 11-7 in conference.  That means about 20 teams get into the tournament AFTER MU if we go 11-7.  With that many teams behind us I just don't see how we drop out of the tournament at 10-8.  I believe not getting in at 10-8 would require a perfect storm of 0-4 in our last four chances at quality road wins, finishing as a 9-seed in the BE and are upset by DePaul and then have a bunch of surprise tournament winners to eat up spots - but baring all those things happening, I believe 6 more wins and we are in the tournament.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Marquette.html

[jesmu84]

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/blog?name=ncbexperts&id=6033299&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fncb%2fblog%3fname%3dncbexperts%26id%3d6033299

anyone have insider and feel like sharing/summarizing?

[SaintPaulWarrior]

Look closely and you'll see that this week's bracket is more than a little historic. For the first time ever, we've got 11 teams from a single conference in the projected NCAA field. That's E-L-E-V-E-N, as in I can barely count that high, from the B-I-G East.

The single-season record for bids from a conference is eight, which the post-expansion Big East has produced in two of the past three seasons. A new slogan -- "11 for '11!" -- may be in order if the current landscape holds.

More impressive than the actual number is the proportional dominance the Big East could establish with 11 of its 16 teams (68.8 percent) in the NCAA field. This would trump the 7-for-11 showings (63.6 percent) from the Big Ten in 1994, 1999, 2001 and 2009.

All of which leaves two questions: (1) How likely is this to happen? (2) How would it impact the bracket?

In terms of likelihood, there are essentially three Big East "swing" teams at this point. Let's put the top eight -- the Pittsburgh Panthers, Syracuse Orange, Connecticut Huskies, Villanova Wildcats, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Louisville Cardinals, Georgetown Hoyas and West Virginia Mountaineers -- in the field. All have tournament odds at 85 percent or better at this point. So we're looking at the St. John's Red Storm (75 percent), Cincinnati Bearcats (60 percent) and Marquette Golden Eagles (55 percent) as the key players in the "11 for '11!" chase.

Crunching a few more numbers gives us the following probabilities:



8 bids: 76.95 percent
9 bids: 57.71 percent
10 bids: 34.63 percent
11 bids: 19.05 percent




The wiseguy in me says to set the over/under for Big East bids at 9.5; the basketball person in me likes the "over," even though the odds are pointing the other way.

• Enlarge
  AP Photo/Jim Prisching
  Based on their talent and remaining schedule, Jimmy Butler and Marquette should make the field of 68.
  
  Of the three swing teams, Marquette -- currently the last at-large selection -- seems to have the best combination of personnel and remaining schedule. I like the Golden Eagles more than their 55 percent odds suggest.
  
  
  
  St. John's and Cincinnati are a more interesting contrast. The Red Storm have far better wins and far worse losses. The Bearcats built a gaudy record without much beef on their schedule. As the two teams happen to be repeat opponents (in New York on Jan. 22, in Cincinnati on Feb. 13), their head-to-head meetings figure to be critical. It helps the league if they split; it's much more likely that one will get picked over the other with a sweep.
  
  
  
  Bottom line: I'm taking the "over" and betting on 10 Big East teams in the NCAA tournament. And I'm looking for St. John's and Cincinnati to actually play a third time in the Big East tournament to decide it.
  
  
  
  Finally, how will the selection committee manage a bracket that is one or two (or three!) teams over the established comfort zone of eight? Obviously, the principle of no teams from the same conference meeting before a regional final goes out the window. So, straight from the NCAA's explanations of seedings, we see:
  
  
  
  "Conference teams shall not meet prior to the regional final unless a ninth team is selected from a conference. If the Committee is unable to reconcile the bracket after exhausting all reasonable options, it has the flexibility to waive this principle to permit two teams from the same conference to meet each other after the second round."
  
  
  
  Most would read this as saying that no conference members in the "ninth team" scenario could meet prior to the Sweet 16. However, with the establishment of the inaugural First Four games this season, the "second round" is what we've always known as the first round (64-to-32) and the newly named "third round" (32-to-16) is the old second round. So it is possible, perhaps even likely, that two Big East teams could meet for a second, third or fourth time after just one NCAA game apiece.
  
  
  
  But, as my father liked to say, "We'll jump off that bridge when we get to it."
  
  
  
  Other notes on this week's bracket:
  
  
  
  • We have four "bid thieves" this week. The Xavier Musketeers (Atlantic 10), Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Conference-USA), James Madison Dukes (Colonial) and Valparaiso Crusaders (Horizon League) are current conference leaders who would not otherwise qualify as at-large selections. They join the Temple Owls, UCF Knights, Old Dominion Monarchs and Butler Bulldogs in giving each of these leagues a second team in the field.
  
  
  
  • Had to flip-flop the two First Four at-large games to avoid additional conference conflicts in the main bracket. By S-Curve, Virginia Tech-Marquette should be playing for a No. 11 seed and Oklahoma State-Old Dominion for a No. 12. Neither can happen without violating bracketing principles, so the "move one seed line" provision comes into play not for single teams but for pairings.
  
  
  
  • A logistical issue demanded a second change. We could not have both First Four AQ games paired with the overall No. 1 (Ohio State) and No. 2 (Kansas) seeds. Had that been the case, one AQ winner would have been forced to play Wednesday, March 16, in Dayton, followed by a second-round game the next day in either Cleveland or Tulsa.
  
  
  
  • The option of swapping an AQ game in place of a Tuesday at-large game in Dayton does not exist in this bracket. The at-large winners were hard enough to place and are slotted for Tampa and Tucson, respectively. Both are Thursday second-round sites, requiring that their First Four games be Tuesday, March 15.
  
  
  
  That was fun, wasn't it?
  

[Tugg Speedman]

Already have a thread in this

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=23741.0

[MuMark]

Interesting analysis by Lunardi and I agree with him as far as the BE goes. 9 or 10.

I think he should look at Butler's resume more closely. 20 point loss to Milwaukee, losses to Evansville, a mediocre Xavier team and Wright state.

Only decent wins are Cleveland State(70 pomeroy), Florida State(43) and Washington State(38).

Not sure they are worthy now and I wsouldn't bet on them getting in if they don't win the Horizon.