How Good Will MU Be Next Year

[MuMark]

Pomeroy is not a fan of plus/minus when it comes to college basketball.

http://kenpom.com/blog/

[Henry Sugar]

Conference Play only.  the numbers after each player are (Usage, Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, Net Points Produced)

Johnson-Odom, Darius   (22.8%, 117.3, 110.1, 17.3)
Crowder, Jae (17.0%, 125.4, 105.0,   13.4)
Butler, Jimmy (18.5%, 125.6, 106.6, 11.4)
Buycks, Dwight (13.2%, 123.9, 110.3, 4.5)
Fulce, Joseph (3.9%, 125.7, 104.0,   2.0)
Frozena, Robert (0.0%, 0.0, 117.1,    -0.2)
Williams, Erik (0.2%, 0.0, 114.6, -0.9)
Jones, Jamail (0.2%, 0.0, 117.1, -1.0)
Gardner, Dwight (1.8%, 45.2, 114.0, -4.7)
Otule, Chris   (7.4%, 85.9, 107.2, -7.8)
Cadougan, Junior   (6.4%, 96.0, 111.1, -8.8)
Blue, Vander (8.4%, 80.5, 109.6, -10.4)

It's sorted from top to bottom on net points produced.  Take with a grain of salt.  Again, it's better to go game by game, but that's manual data entry into a spreadsheet.

[nyg]

Hopefully Wilson can take Butler's spot.

Junior needs to improve his shot and especially his free throw shooting (44%).  You can't have a PG with those current stats.  

Otule, well lets hope something improves.

I don't see anything different than this year and they need someone to step up and makeup the points provided by Butler and Buycks.  

[Blackhat]

I can't even tell how good we are this year, let alone predict on next year.

We'll spend 10 minutes playing solid d, grinding out good leads, then there are some minutes/games where we look DII level bad on D.  I'm not sure what to think of buzz and the crew.

[brewcity77]

I think it's all up in the air, much as it was with this team. If JFB and DJO improve moderately this year, they are the two conference top ten players that we'd hope DJO and Crowder to be next year. Getting the NJCAA national player of the year covers the premium transfer in. Cadougan as a sophomore, Otule and Buycks ready to contribute, and an impact freshman in Blue. If we play a bit smarter, we could be 16-2 right now, ranked in the top 15, and we'd be talking about a potential 2-3 seed.

What makes next year different? We again are losing 3 key seniors. Can Wilson fill Butler's shoes? Can Williams or Anderson provide the spark of Fulce off the bench? Can anyone take over the point for Buycks? Even if the answer to all if those questions is yes, will the key returning players learn from this year's failures against Gonzaga, Vandy, and Louisville? If the answer is yes, we could be a potential top 10 team. If the answer is no, we're having the same heart-wrenching issues next January.

We had the same lessons to learn last year. How to win close games. How to protect a lead. How to string wins together in tough situations. And for the short-term we learned them, but for the long term (this season) it seems the lessons of a year ago were wasted. If we can learn those lessons by the end of this year and carry it over, we'll be in great shape. If not...well, you all know what it's like around here now.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I can't even tell how good we are this year, let alone predict on next year.

We'll spend 10 minutes playing solid d, grinding out good leads, then there are some minutes/games where we look DII level bad on D.  I'm not sure what to think of buzz and the crew.

My thoughts as well.  That said, I voted for NCAA 2nd Round but believe they could do better depending on the seeding, the draw, location, etc....but that's so far down the road, who knows.

[MerrittsMustache]

I voted Final Four because why the hell not?

As others have said, let's finish up this season and then start the ridiculous predictions for next year.

[Marquette84]

I had 2nd round.  I sense that most people are too optimistic about the future and too pessimistic about the present.  Definitely saw that in 2010, and to a certain extent again this year.

The challenge I see is twofold.

1.  Everyone else in the league is getting better at a potentially faster pace.  Syracuse continues to land outstanding talent with two top-25 RSCI recruits.  Pitt has always been well coached.  Louisville has some studs coming in.  We all know about St. Johns incoming class.  UConn is perennially talent-deep.  Villanova has outstanding talent. The danger is that we'll be a really really good, but still finish 5th or 6th in the Big East, wind up with a 6 or 7 seed--fair or not--and have to face a 2 or 3 seed/top 10 team in the 2nd round.

2.  We have either unknowns to replace the minutes that Butler and Buycks give us, or are counting on players to be completely different than they are now.  Cadougan will have to be much improved next year or we're not a Sweet 16 team.  If Erik Williams is counted on to take some of Butler's mintues, he's going to have to be a completely different player than what we've seen.  Jamil Wilson is somewhat unknown--but he has to give us a lot more than what he showed at Oregon to rise to what Butler is giving us this year--for example, Butler has been around 130 on his offiensive rating since his sophomore year.  Wilson was around 100 as a frosh.  

[MarquetteDano]

I expect Cadougan to make a big leap next year as our starting point guard.  I don't see many problems there.  My concern would be the backup point situation, especially if Cadougan got injured.

Cadougan, Blue, and Gardner will make huge leaps next year is my guess, and that will make for a very good team (assuming no major injuries).

To someone's point earlier, along with backup PG, would be nice to recruit a Fulce type rebounder for next year.  We need a PF who can d-up and board.