Kenpom loves preseason polls

[PaintTouches]

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_pre-season_ap_poll_is_great/

He tries to argue that the first AP preseason poll is more "accurate" than the final AP poll before the tournament. He picks and chooses stats to support his point.

Six times the preseason #1 has won the national title compared to three for the top-ranked team at the end of the regular season. The preseason #1 has made it to the title game a total of 10 times compared to just six for the final #1.

I still don't buy it though. I would like to see a complete analysis of all 25 teams. The NCAA Tourney is too much of a toss-up, as he argues, to solely base it on one team's performance.

Interesting read anyways.

[ChicosBailBonds]

For the top team, sure.  For all 25 teams, not even close.  We've gone through that on this board in the last few months showing how many top 25 teams preseason don't even make the NCAA tournament, or in some cases, no tournament at all.  For the sample we looked at over a 4 or 5 year period, the numbers showed the pollsters were very wrong.

Their ability to land on the overall number one might be great, but get them out of their bubble of a few teams and they fair poorly.

[MarquetteDano]

The only thing I would agree with Kenpom's analysis here is that great teams to begin the season are ranked high.  They get an injury, blow a game or two, and all of a sudden are ranked 8-12 in the polls even though they probably should be Top 5.  Then the tourney starts and they are back to the great team we all knew they could be.

Outside of the Top 5 in the pre-season polls.... forget about it.  I would trust the in-season polls much more so than the pre-season.