From ESPN Insider - Bubble Watch

[NersEllenson]

Thought I'd post the whole article instead of link due to being Insider Content...the bottom 1/3rd of the article is very interesting and assesses MU and other Bubble Teams.

For those baffled by the bubble, it probably feels as though Miss Cleo or Maggie the Stanley Cup-predicting monkey is as good at projecting the final teams into the NCAA tournament as anyone else. With all due respect to their, uh, supernatural powers, we beg to differ.

Building off Bubble Watch, last season Insider introduced a little science into NCAA selection speculation with Bubble Insider. The goal is to look for common markers from past NCAA tournament teams and apply them to this season's potential field with a focus on fringe teams.

Our formula consisted of four parts last season: the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) -- teams with an RPI better than 50 almost always make it; team losses -- teams with more than 12 losses typically are denied from the field; strength of schedule (SOS) -- this isn't as good a predictor of inclusion or exclusion, but it can mitigate negatives; and adjusted scoring margin (ASM) -- this helps forecast teams with a good shot at game-by-game success.

This season, we'll incorporate a new element: Joe Lunardi's Tournament Odds. By comparing the profiles of past NCAA tournament teams to those trying to crack this season's field, Lunardi generates the percentage chance this season's squads have at making the Dance. We'll let him explain more on Monday when the odds debut. For now, let's project the future by discussing the past.



The reason we use 12-plus losses as a guideline in addition to an RPI mark of 50 is that historically speaking, teams falling short in both categories have a very tough time earning an at-large bid. In the five tournaments from 2004 to 2008, only five teams qualified for the field with a baker's dozen in the L column. Last season, three teams pulled that trick. And in the seven tournaments from 2002 to 2008, only four teams qualified with an RPI of more than 60. Last season, two did. Take a look at how things stood on Selection Sunday:



Selection Sunday 2009
All four of these squads made last year's Big Dance despite these numbers.

Team name Record RPI Strength of schedule
Michigan Wolverines 19-13 44 11
Maryland Terrapins 20-13 54 22
Boston College Eagles 22-11 60 70
Arizona Wildcats 19-13 62 36


According to our formula, there were all kinds of reasons to keep these teams out of the tournament without even considering the virtues of mid-majors such as the San Diego State Aztecs (21-9, RPI 35, SOS 35) that were passed over. So what do we make of bids for this foursome when Michigan and Maryland sported 13 losses, BC flunked our RPI sniff test and Arizona missed both marks? Turns out there was one feature all four shared that we apparently undervalued: the signature win.




All four of those teams flaunted multiple wins over some of last season's powerhouses. Michigan beat the Duke Blue Devils (who had the second-best RPI in the nation on Selection Sunday last year); Maryland beat the North Carolina Tar Heels (3rd best RPI), the Michigan State Spartans (5th best RPI) and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (16th best RPI); Boston College beat both North Carolina and Duke and Arizona beat the Gonzaga Bulldogs (26th best RPI) and UCLA Bruins (33rd best RPI).



UCLA at No. 33 might not seem great, but the Bruins were ranked No. 4 and No. 6 in the coaches' poll, respectively, when Michigan and Arizona dropped 'em. Likewise, Zona tipped the Zags when they occupied the No. 4 spot.



There absolutely is a subjective element to the process (we can feel mid-major fans simmering even now), so Arizona's big blows may have seemed more impressive than when San Diego State knocked off the Utah Utes (RPI of 7) and the Brigham Young Cougars (30) last season.



Regardless of mid-major misfortune, we're not going to underestimate the impact of the big win over top-tier "big six" teams this season. Here's a look at potential bubble teams that have already recorded prime victories over BCS conference teams in the RPI top 15. (We're drawing the line a little higher for now because teams are likely to rise and fall, but the top-15 teams are good bets to finish in the top 25 on Selection Sunday.)



Keep an eye on ...
These squads are on the bubble but have a good shot to get off it.

Team name RPI Signature win (Opp. RPI as of Jan. 30)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 55 West Virginia Mountaineers (7)  
Florida Gators  58 Michigan State Spartans (14)
North Carolina Tar Heels 59 Michigan State
Northwestern Wildcats 62 Purdue Boilermakers (10)  
South Carolina Gamecocks 69 Kentucky Wildcats (8)  
Marquette Golden Eagles 78 Georgetown Hoyas (6)  


You may recall some other notable wins this season (NC State over Duke, Green Bay over the Wisconsin Badgers and Old Dominion over the Georgetown Hoyas among them), but we didn't include them on the list because those teams are either well outside the bubble (RPI No. 95 for NC State, 108 for Green Bay) or included in Joe Lunardi's current bracket (Old Dominion).



We put North Carolina in this pack because the Tar Heels' RPI is a little concerning at the moment but is likely to improve as ACC play continues. Combine that with one more win over a top RPI team -- and we know of one in Durham that fits the bill -- and there's no reason to believe UNC won't be tapping its heels in the Dance. Others among these teams may not have such an easy time.



Notre Dame closes its season with a gauntlet of Louisville, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, UConn and Marquette. Plus, the Irish will have to overcome the stigma of a horrendous loss to Loyola-Marymount (RPI No. 220). A second signature win, this time over the Hoyas, might provide the buffer they'll need if they end up on the bubble.



Tourney virgin Northwestern already has been a talking point on PTI, particularly because Lunardi has been sour on its chances this season. The Wildcats were in a similar position last season but sported an RPI of 73 on Selection Sunday. They're on pace to better that this season, and a second key win -- let's say over Wisconsin on Feb. 21 -- could put Northwestern over the top, even if the Wildcats' RPI doesn't improve much.



Although it's still early to do too much forecasting, keep your eye on Marquette. The Golden Eagles' RPI rating is extremely high at the moment but could improve in a hurry. After beating UConn on Saturday, Buzz Williams' boys set up for an easy finish in the Big East, facing DePaul, Providence, South Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, St. John's, Seton Hall, Louisville and Notre Dame. And they'll get the Panthers, Cardinals and Irish at home. Marquette may not be able to get a second signature win, but with a higher ASM than every team on its remaining schedule, it certainly could run the table right into the tournament.



Mike Hume is an editor of ESPN Insider.

[4everwarriors]

The 'Cats, right now, deserve a bid. Beaten ND and Purdue.

[The Pickle]

So we have, what, 9 games left...all of which are winnable.  Likelihood is we won't win out, but if we can get 7 and finish with 20 wins, I think it would be tough for the selection committee to leave us out.  If we make it in, I would guess a 9-12 seed, which I would much rather be a lower seed as the 8/9 match-up gets #1 seed in the second round and 5/12 match-ups are notorious for upsets.

[MarquetteDano]

Thanks for the article.  Assuming that Looeyvilee and N.D. are both on the bubble, we REALLY need to win both those games.  Beating both of them may also push both to 13 losses when you add the Big East tourney.  By Marquette getting to 10 conference wins, even a BEast tourney loss only means 12 losses in total for the year.

We are really going to be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.  I really fear a surprise loss that would kill our chances.  I really picked a bad year to quit Quaaludes!  

[augoman]

Wow, go Warriors- go 'Cats!!

[NersEllenson]

Our RPI jumped to 56 on Realtimerpi.coom after the UCONN win.  If only we had just 1 win out of the 3 Villanova/WV games, and subtract the loss to DePaul - MU is pretty much a lock, assuming it doesn't lay a huge egg the rest of the way.  But now - it looks like we are in decent shape, but need to win 7 of 9 to be off the bubble.

[Avenue Commons]

Our RPI jumped to 56 on Realtimerpi.coom after the UCONN win.  If only we had just 1 win out of the 3 Villanova/WV games, and subtract the loss to DePaul - MU is pretty much a lock, assuming it doesn't lay a huge egg the rest of the way.  But now - it looks like we are in decent shape, but need to win 7 of 9 to be off the bubble.

Amen. If we hadn't lost to DPU, and then picked up just ONE of the Nova games and not lost a heartbreaker at the buzzer to WV AT WV, our resume has a totally different complexion.

I agree with your assessment that we need to get 7 of 9 to be off the bubble.