Using Sagarin's method, here's how the remainder of our games break down as of Monday morning, Feb 12.
1. at DePaul - Lose by 2
2. Louisville - Win by 6
3. Villanova - Lose by 1/4, for all intents a pick 'em game
4. at Notre Dame - Lose by 8
5. Pittsburgh - Lose by 1
Projected Standings
1. Pittsburgh (14-2)
2. Georgetown (13-3)
3. Notre Dame (!1-5)
4. Villanova (10-6)
4. West Virginia (10-6)
6. DePaul (9-7)
6. Louisville (9-7)
6. Marquette (9-7)
6. Providence (9-7)
10. Connecticut (8-8)
10. Syracuse (8-8)
12. Saint Johns (6-10)
13. Seton Hall (4-12)
14. Rutgers (3-13)
14. South Florida (3-13)
16. Cincinnati (2-14)
The above looks worse than it is for us because we're supposed to win one of our remaining games (Louisville), lose one (at ND) and the other three are basically toss-ups with the other team being razor thin (less than two point) favorites. But it does illustrate the point that every game left could go either way.
I think the predictor computers which necessarily use scoring margin underestimate us a little bit, because often in games we win the final score is closer than the game actually was due to our end-game prevent offense tactics that are designed to insure victory but not necessarily score by not giving the other team enough time to catch up. Our losses often work the other way, as Syracuse and Georgetown were able to turn what were essentially close games into easy victories looking at the final score.
