[Cracked Sidewalks] New Year's Resolution: Expect Less from Marquette

[Pardner]

well said it sure sounds like the other math geeks never played a competitive sport or competed in their lives!!!!!!!!

This from a poster who dredged up our repressed Dukiet and Deane memories by quoting their attendance statistics.   

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=11229.0

Anyway, we are early favorites at 3.5
http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2009/01/01/2009-01-01_villanova_vs_marquette/spread

Pomeroy has us at 1.
http://kenpom.com/sked.php?y=2009&team=Marquette&t=p

[Henry Sugar]

Thanks for the feedback and comments from folks.  I just wanted to add some extra comments.

I'm not trying to be the turd in the punch bowl.  Originally, my objective was just to determine what a likely view was, and to actually disprove the Pomeroy analysis.  Now it's just a search for the truth.

In addition, the prediction model is based on the available data.  The key issue is that most teams haven't played a slate of true road games.  Most teams are analyzed off of their experience with Neutral site tourneys and cupcake matchups.  Every team plays cupcakes, and I eliminated the >300 Pomeroy rating teams from every.  The model will get better with more data, but it's still fairly accurate.  I also account for a 90% confidence interval on most of the variables that went into the model, which is where the monte carlo analysis came from.  (And the comment from Dry White Toast made me laugh out loud)

Finally, a number of folks have commented on the "experience factor" with the Big Four.  Yes, Marquette returns a high percentage of returning upperclassman (juniors/seniors).  However, we're only fourth in terms of returning minutes in the Big East.  There are five teams returning over 80% of upperclassman minutes, and ten teams returning over 60% of upperclassman minutes.  The point?  The experience advantage isn't as great as people may believe.

Team                Percentage of Upperclassman Minutes
Connecticut   0.982
Notre Dame   0.972
Louisville                0.938
Marquette   0.889
West Virginia   0.852
Providence   0.695
Villanova                0.687
Seton Hall   0.639
Rutgers                0.638
Georgetown   0.609
South Florida   0.571
Pittsburgh   0.547
Syracuse                0.477
Cincinnati   0.420
DePaul       0.338
St. John's   0.215

Tomorrow's game is huge.  HUGE!  Go Marquette, and Happy New Year.

[bilsu]

If we beat Villanova tomorrow, then I predict 10-3 going into the last five games. If we lose to Villanova then we will be struggling to a 9-9 record.