Realistic Expectations

[MilTown]

I'm don't really understand this board and the "sky is falling" mentality surrounding our team. I think that up to this point, the team has pretty much played up to my expectations. I went into this season thinking that we would be an .500 team in the big east and a 20 win team overall due to our cupcake non-conference schedule. Everyone knew coming into this year that we couldn't shoot, we take bad shots, turn the ball over often, and we have no inside game at all. I also think Crean still tries to hard to mold players to fit into his "system" vs adapting the system to suit his players. Yes, our freshman are now experienced soph's, but overall, I didn't think our team has gotten better. We have some good young talent, but it needs more time to develop. We have a great base. If all goes well, we should have a solid team for the next 3-4 years (assuming everyone stays).

With all that being said, I think we have a very talented trio at the top of our line-up. Will we compete for the national championship, probably not, but this team is going to be fun to watch and be competitive in every game.

[mu_hilltopper]

A number of people have commented on the "Sky is Falling" posts .. I don't see that as something not expected, as it's all about expectations, and the daffy pre-conference polls putting us as a top 10 team, with an ESPN analyst saying he's picking us for the final 4.

So in that regard, yes, the sky is falling.   Some thought this team was actually top 10 material, and now see that isn't the case.  Vocalizing that is not surprising. 

Had we expected, like last year, to squeek into the BE tournament, no one would be saying the sky is falling with our 9-2 record.  We'd be moderately pleased with a 3-1 record versus the games we cared about (Duke, TT, Valpo, UW).

[MU71]

Honest assessment.  We got ourselves all pumped up by beating Duke but our biggest issues going into the season were not put to bed.  You described the main ones pretty accurately - no inside game and no outside shooting - I'd add to that upper class leadership.  Our foundation is sound (provided they stay) but this is not a top 10 team and probably not a top 20 (if so, somewhere between 15 & 20.)  We still should compete well and I see no reason to doubt an NCAA appearance but losing to Wisconsin does not mean the sky is falling.  Bo has a fine team, balanced inside and out and has all his classes filled.  

[Big Papi]

One idiot picked us as a final four candidate and that was probably because we beat Duke.

Bilas also mentioned that we were a darkhorse candidate for the final four but and it is something that is overlooked by everyone.  He prefaced that by saying that we are a very young team and will be inconsistent early on but that we had the potential to be very good by the end of the year.  Guess what.  We do have a lot of talent as we have beaten some good teams.  We are inconsistent as evidenced by the loss to NDST and a few close calls to go along with those very good wins.  Now, we will see if in fact we do end up being very good by the end of the year.  I would trend more towards yes than no.

[CTWarrior]

Speaking for myself, the main concern is that our liabilities are not easily corrected.  If you can't shoot, you can't shoot.  A 6-10, 250 lb monster to patrol the interior won't magically appear this season.  I thought we'd be a better shooting team than we are.  That's a flaw that is going to be very hard to overcome when coupled with no easy interior baskets.  Puts the ceiling on this team very low, I think. 

This team is fun to watch and they compete like nobody's business.  That will steal us a win here or there against a quality team, but I don't see us being able to put together a string of good performances of the kind that make March fun.

[Nukem2]

The Badgers are a solid club this year, especially when Landry plays to his potential.  Remember, we did lose to a team now ranked #7 on a day when we could not hit open shots (an, MU truly did have quite a number of wide open shots). Other than Pitt, I really don't see anyone in the BE that has no real weknesses.  I think a lot of posters forget that the BE is in a transition year with a lot of new faces.  The Big 10/11 and the Big 12 are in that category as well.  I think some of you folks are a bit over the edge at this juncture. 

[CTWarrior]

We're going to finish somewhere between 7-9 and 10-6 in the BE, most likely 8-8 or 9-7 if I had to guess.  At 7-9 we're in NCAA trouble and at 10-6 we're in easily.  But my larger point is I think this team will not make runs in the BE tournament or the NCAA tournament because an "off night" shooting will be too common an occurence.

[Big Papi]

Speaking for myself, the main concern is that our liabilities are not easily corrected.  If you can't shoot, you can't shoot.  A 6-10, 250 lb monster to patrol the interior won't magically appear this season.  I thought we'd be a better shooting team than we are.  That's a flaw that is going to be very hard to overcome when coupled with no easy interior baskets.  Puts the ceiling on this team very low, I think. 

This team is fun to watch and they compete like nobody's business.  That will steal us a win here or there against a quality team, but I don't see us being able to put together a string of good performances of the kind that make March fun.

I have to disagree a little bit.  We have the potential to be a decent perimeter shooting team.  At least better than 3 for 18.  A 3 for 18 in a game where we only lost by 4 against a top 10 team. 

Fitz has shown the ability to hit the outside shot.  Cubillan has shown an ability to hit the outside shot and Hayward has a great rep as an outside shooter.  So we technically have the players who are capable.  It is up to TC and the coaching staff to get Fitz more aggressive, get Cubillan more looks from the outside, work with Hayward and his timing and limit our bad 3 point shooters, i.e. McNeal.  Better outside shooting can be improved moderately this year.  All we really need to shoot from 3 point range is 33% and we win against most teams.  33% is not a great percentage but that would have been enough to beat UW-Madison and NDST and still be undefeated. 

This team has shown the ability to hit our outside shots so I know we are capable.  Just ask Detriot, Deleware St. and Eastern Michigan.   

[DoubleMU0609]

I agree that we can be a much better perimeter (and jump shooting) team.  If we can make a few adjustments on shot selection and make an extra pass (or get Fitz/David to stop passing up the extra pass) our percentage should get up to at least a respectable amount.  The trick is being able tow get the ball movement against better defenses without having to force anything.

[TJ]

Forgive me, I hope I'm wrong, but I simply have not seen the great shooting from Fitz that everyone is clammoring over.  He's done better than I expected filling in at the post, guarding a 4, and going after rebounds, but he really hasn't been a threat shooting the ball in any of the games I've been at (TT, Duke, Valpo, UW).  Again, I hope he turns it around, but when he's been willing to shoot at all, it hasn't looked pretty.

Oh, and my expectations: I am quite pleased with the team thus far.  They could have done better, of course, but I'll happily take 9-2 at this point, and hopefully 12-2 heading into BE play.  I feel like they have weaknesses, but that there's no reason they can't spend the next 3-4 weeks working on those weaknesses - correcting them or even trying to compensate for them.  Whether it works or not remains to be seen, but I am excited to find out...

[bheitz]

Fitz has shown the ability to hit the outside shot...  It is up to TC and the coaching staff to get Fitz more aggressive...   

I'm wondering if Fitz has that sort of aggressiveness in him.  Judging from the DSU post-game comments of Tony Smith and Fitz's own acknowledgement, it appears the coaches have been on him about being aggressive as far back as last season.  I don't know if they (the coaches) can do any more in that regard.

[spiral97]

could put him in closed court room with two hoops on each side.. give him a ball and tell him the scoreboard will not register points if it is unbalanced by more than 3 points..
then release a REALLY horny monkey into the room and tell him the tranquilizer release mechanism embedded in the monkey's brain will not trigger until the scoreboard says 100-100.

I bet he becomes agressive with the ball then!

but more seriously.. what this points out is that aggressiveness is usually a matter of motivation, realization, and more motivation: motivation to make the player be seriously aggressive for the first time, realization by the player that he CAN play more aggressive, and then more motivation to make him play that way consistently.
I think Fitz is still stuck on the first step there.  That motivation usually needs to come from an external source (like the monkey above).  I am sure that there have got to be more realistic "games" the coach can spring on the players to do that - much like the whole deflections tracking strategy.  The realization can also be accidental - I think Barro's (even if the numbers don't show it) success playing against the big guys of duke took him by surprise and started him down this path.  The second motivation necessarily needs to come from within.  Winning, supporting your teammates, and not letting them down is usually this motivation.  Barro's "break-out" two double-double's showed this too.  Fitz just needs the right push and I think he'll be experiencing more success than he has as well.

[bheitz]

could put him in closed court room with two hoops on each side.. give him a ball and tell him the scoreboard will not register points if it is unbalanced by more than 3 points..
then release a REALLY horny monkey into the room and tell him the tranquilizer release mechanism embedded in the monkey's brain will not trigger until the scoreboard says 100-100.

I bet he becomes agressive with the ball then!

Thanks Spiral.  A REALLY horny monkey was not the thought I wanted to go to bed with.   

[Henry Sugar]

My expectations for this team have always been the following.

Last year - Maybe surprise a few teams and lose some clunkers.  Probable NIT bid with an outside shot at an NCAA appearance
**Results - Exceeds Expectations. 

This year - Spend most of the year ranked around the low end of the top 25, tourney seeding around 4-5, and have a possible sweet 16 run.
**Results - TBD, but currently slightly exceeding expectations based on early top 10 ranking and win over Duke.

Next year - Top 10 team and legit Final Four contender.  (I used to believe this was only possible if DJ sticks around, but I'm leaning towards the idea that the team will be this good regardless)
**Results - TBD, but the 2008 Final Four is in San Antonio

[spiral97]

Thanks Spiral.  A REALLY horny monkey was not the thought I wanted to go to bed with.   

so.. dare I ask.. how did you sleep? 

[bheitz]

Thanks Spiral.  A REALLY horny monkey was not the thought I wanted to go to bed with.   

so.. dare I ask.. how did you sleep? 

I forgot to mention that Wizard of Oz was on TNT last night.  Hmmm... old childhood nightmare of flying monkeys brought back to life with an adult twist -- thanks again, buddy!   

[Big Papi]

Fitz has shown the ability to hit the outside shot...  It is up to TC and the coaching staff to get Fitz more aggressive...   

I'm wondering if Fitz has that sort of aggressiveness in him.  Judging from the DSU post-game comments of Tony Smith and Fitz's own acknowledgement, it appears the coaches have been on him about being aggressive as far back as last season.  I don't know if they (the coaches) can do any more in that regard.

Novak had the same problems up until the Cincy game his Junior year.  We were getting blown out by Cincy without Diener and than all of a sudden it kind of clicked for him half way through the second half and he started demanding the ball and firing it up.  Fitz is not the shooter that Novak was but he does have the same demeanor as Novak.  It will end up clicking for him at some point in time and he will figure out that it is better for the team if he takes the initiative and starts pulling the trigger on some of those shots. 

[Big Papi]

Forgive me, I hope I'm wrong, but I simply have not seen the great shooting from Fitz that everyone is clammoring over. 

Its not translating to actual games except for a small spurt last year that centered around the Depaul game but he is wowing the coaches in practice with the drills.  I have read numerous times that he has come close to matching some of Novak's records in drills that deal with 3 point shooting speed and accuracy. 

And speaking of the Wizard of Oz, its just to bad we can't have McNeal give Fitz some of his aggressiveness and confidence.

[MarquetteDano]

Although it may not have shown in games, Fitz IS a very good perimeter shooter.  Along with Cubillan, they are the best outside threats.  He has to stop getting the ball off a pass faking a three and then driving to the hoop.  He has to start taking that three.

Shoot it!