Offensive Four Factors - 2026-27 projection

[Jay Bee]

FTrate (32.8%; #243 last year)
We lose Chase Ross (42.7%), but add Minessale (50.2%!!) and  I think DO is capable of putting up solid numbers here. Ben Gold (22.3%) was not a big FT guy but Sananda Fru figures to get to the line a lot after posting a 52.9% FTrate with Louisville (only shot 61.1% from the line, but #FTsNoMatta).

The #243 rank last season was Shaka's BEST at MU. We won't be strong in this area, but I think we'll set a new SSS MU-career high.

OR% (29.7%; #216)
With Nigel and Adrien expected to get big minutes, becoming great on the o-boards doesn't look like it's in the cards for this season, but I do think we could improve a bit here. Fru was exceptional last year (14.9%) while Gold pulled in just 6.4%. Add in more minutes for Josh Clark and some guys who I think can help (DO, MPII, frosh Alex and Ethan) and then a big wild card for me (Nolan) and we could be somewhat mediocre (e.g., 150ish??). Minessale had a paltry 2.9% OR% last year, but I think a lot of that is by St. Thomas design and with his wingspan and role with MU, could see him take a significant leap here.

TO% (16.0%; #141)
I don't see a lot of areas for significant improvement (Nigel was at 17.7%; Adrien was 15.2%.. don't see Nigel at least going lower in any meaningful way). We lose Ben who was at just 9.1%. Fru's 20.2% will hopefully drop (16%-ish?), but all in all I think we see a bit of an uptick in our TO%. I'd project something closer to #200 than #150.

eFG% (50.5%; #215)
Improvement here is a must. Our 2FG% of 52.6% (#147) wasn't horrible, but considering the level of missed layups a year ago, I'm hoping for modest improvement. Let's tick it up to 53.0%.

3FG% was awful (31.8%; #289), "led" by Chase at 29.5% and Ben's brutal 26.4%, which are gone. You add in Fru (not expected to shoot a lot from deep) and Minessale and, based on Nolan's rough 30.0% a year ago may have doubts. However, I think Nolan can be a lot better and even the youngsters replacing some of Chase's attempts have a low bar to reach. Let's go with 34%.

I expect 3FGA/FGA to be down a bit (42.1% last year.. let's drop it to 40% but could be even lower).. so the 53% and 34% with that mix would put MU at 52.2% eFG% which would put us around the #130s.

I want to project this higher and it's absolutely possible. It will be key (eFG% reigns supreme).

Overall, I'm going to project #52 in the land for AdjOE. Really hoping for mid-30's and it's doable, but I can't quite get there yet. #pray

[Jay Bee]

Rando thoughts on usage

We're in the position again of not having many potential medium-high to high usage guys. It's a concern for me, but I think we're in for a season where various guys have big nights followed by small nights. A guy like DO.. he may score 14 or 16 one night, the next 4. There are a lot of dudes like that on our roster. 
 
Nigel will be high usage. Royce can maybe be medium-high. Nolan as well. After that, not sure I see it from anyone else over the course of the season.
 
Nigel – 28% usage with better efficiency feels about right, but there are absolutely scenarios where it's more in the 31-32% range and ORtg suffers.
 
Royce was only 19.4% last season. Would like to see him pushed up to 22-23%.
 
Nolan – a high 31.6% at St. Thomas. Roles are much different, but I would like to see him in also in the low-to mid 20's. We need another guy that can press the issue on offense. I think in some matchups, he may go off and score bunches of points by attacking.
 
Adrien was at just 14.4%. I don't think he's a high usage guy, but could see him jump up more than anyone else – 18-19% while maintaining a lofty ORtg feels good to me pawz.
 
Fru – 17.8% at Louisville. I would love to see a big jump for him, but I don't know that he has it in him pawz. Is there a dream scenario where he is incredible on offense at a 22% usage? Heck yes. It's not a far fetched dream.. but I also am not convinced that's him. More so hoping we're at 19-20% with an incredible ORtg.

[Newsdreams]

No pickle ball today?

[Jay Bee]

No pickle ball today?

Tonight. League during the game fml

[Newsdreams]

Tonight. League during the game fml

Your league Truly suxs

[Stretchdeltsig]

Why doesn't Shaka emphasize shooting?  His teams are consistently poor shooters every year. Poor shooting free throws and field goals.  So far this team has played like free throws don't matter. That they're not important.

[Uncle Rico]

Why doesn't Shaka emphasize shooting?  His teams are consistently poor shooters every year. Poor shooting free throws and field goals.  So far this team has played like free throws don't matter. That they're not important.

Thanks

[tower912]

Same team that shot 50% from 3 against Sparty and UWGB.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Why doesn't Shaka emphasize shooting?  His teams are consistently poor shooters every year. Poor shooting free throws and field goals.  So far this team has played like free throws don't matter. That they're not important.

1. They're not that important in the big picture. There are 11 factors that impact the final score. 8 of them really matter,  then theres a huge cliff, then comes FT%. Mercyhurst had a  way better FT% than us, they only lost by 35

2. It's been one game.

3. Their FT% currently ranks 173rd. Said another way, they were perfectly average in the first game.

[Jay Bee]

3. Their FT% currently ranks 173rd. Said another way, they were perfectly average in the first game.

Ehhh, only 240 teams have logged a game. 173/240 is not average.

Nonetheless, #FTsNoMatta

[MU82]

Why doesn't Shaka emphasize shooting?  His teams are consistently poor shooters every year. Poor shooting free throws and field goals.  So far this team has played like free throws don't matter. That they're not important.

How do you know what Shaka does and doesn't "emphasize"?