[Cracked Sidewalks] Cracketology: Quick Hits

[brewcity77]

A crazy bubble night led to a number of late night changes and early morning updates. As a result, we just have a few quick nuggets on the 1-seed chase, the Big East bid prospects, and last night's bubble chaos, along with a new S-Curve and bracket.

Cracketology: Quick Hits

[GoldenEagles03]

A crazy bubble night led to a number of late night changes and early morning updates. As a result, we just have a few quick nuggets on the 1-seed chase, the Big East bid prospects, and last night's bubble chaos, along with a new S-Curve and bracket.

Cracketology: Quick Hits

"Villanova and Xavier were also considered, but don't have enough heft at the top end to offset their atrocious resume averages."

Xavier absolutely has to have Saturday's win. Gotta play more desperate than them as Shaka likes to say...even though they are the more desperate team.

[Its DJOver]

You'd know better than me Brew, but is the bubble really that soft that Gtown is even near it? An NET in the upper 60's, zero Q1 wins, and their 2 Q2 wins have very little chance of moving up to Q1 (CU would have to jump 20+ spots), not to mention the truly awful non-con SOS. I know Nova has more bad losses, but does 15 spots in the NET and an actual Q1 win make the difference between one additional Q3 loss and one additional Q2 loss?  Neither really look at-large worthy to me, but it seems like Nova should be closer.

[Uncle Rico]

You'd know better than me Brew, but is the bubble really that soft that Gtown is even near it? An NET in the upper 60's, zero Q1 wins, and their 2 Q2 wins have very little chance of moving up to Q1 (CU would have to jump 20+ spots), not to mention the truly awful non-con SOS. I know Nova has more bad losses, but does 15 spots in the NET and an actual Q1 win make the difference between one additional Q3 loss and one additional Q2 loss?  Neither really look at-large worthy to me, but it seems like Nova should be closer.

The bubble is always soft

[Its DJOver]

The bubble is always soft

The bubble is always soft, but is it that soft?

68 team tournament, and it seems like you can usually count on everything 12 and below to be auto-bids from 1 bid leagues.  That leaves 46 spots. 

Just taking a quick look, Gtown is one of two teams in his "first 8 out" without a Q1 win, the other is SMU who has an NET in the 40's.  The only two other teams with an NET above 60 on his bubble each have at least 1 Q1 win (Wash St has 2, I4 only has 1 but has no losses outside Q1).

[brewcity77]

You'd know better than me Brew, but is the bubble really that soft that Gtown is even near it? An NET in the upper 60's, zero Q1 wins, and their 2 Q2 wins have very little chance of moving up to Q1 (CU would have to jump 20+ spots), not to mention the truly awful non-con SOS. I know Nova has more bad losses, but does 15 spots in the NET and an actual Q1 win make the difference between one additional Q3 loss and one additional Q2 loss?  Neither really look at-large worthy to me, but it seems like Nova should be closer.

This time of year the bubble tends to look weak. Last night I had around 20 teams I was looking at for those last spots, and this morning the last two teams in (New Mexico & Arizona State) were teams that lost and I didn't want to put in, but the alternatives were even worse.

Georgetown being where they are speaks less to their quality and more to their lack of fatal flaws. Nothing great, but all okay enough to squint and consider them. The teams behind them have a similar lack of win quality, even worse resume metrics, and worse losses. They do have a lot of work to do, though, and blowing three straight opportunities against Marquette, UConn, and St John's may ultimately be their undoing.

[Its DJOver]

This time of year the bubble tends to look weak. Last night I had around 20 teams I was looking at for those last spots, and this morning the last two teams in (New Mexico & Arizona State) were teams that lost and I didn't want to put in, but the alternatives were even worse.

Georgetown being where they are speaks less to their quality and more to their lack of fatal flaws. Nothing great, but all okay enough to squint and consider them. The teams behind them have a similar lack of win quality, even worse resume metrics, and worse losses. They do have a lot of work to do, though, and blowing three straight opportunities against Marquette, UConn, and St John's may ultimately be their undoing.

Fair, thanks for the response, agree that everyone has an incomplete body of work rn which can muddy things up.  Just trying to gauge things better, what do you see from Gtown that you don't see from someone like LSU (Literally just picked the team next to them in NET)? Neither have a Q1 win, LSU has twice as many Q2 wins, no Q3 loss, and the same number of Q4 games. Is it just too much SEC and they're unlikely to eclipse 16 wins, or is there something else that I'm missing?

[brewcity77]

They're similar, I'll admit looking at LSU projected to lose all but one remaining game on kenpom factors in. I do think the SEC squeezes teams at the bottom out.

[romey]

I chuckled when I saw 9 Big Ten teams in.

[FairWeatherEagle]

I agree on the top 3 1s...all look solid. I think we get there too if 29-5 or 30-4 and at least 1 win over UC of the two or three we play them.

As for the bubble. Total mystery to me. Glad you think 4 BE teams will be in. Concerned it will be 3.

[K1 Lover]

A crazy bubble night led to a number of late night changes and early morning updates. As a result, we just have a few quick nuggets on the 1-seed chase, the Big East bid prospects, and last night's bubble chaos, along with a new S-Curve and bracket.

Cracketology: Quick Hits

Like you said, I think Marquette is unlikely to get a 1-seed.

As for the 2-seed, however... it seems like a very realistic and achievable outcome, but that's just my gut. Do you have any projections as to how likely a 2-seed is with our remaining schedule? I'm curious as to what your confidence level is.

[DoctorV]

Like you said, I think Marquette is unlikely to get a 1-seed.

As for the 2-seed, however... it seems like a very realistic and achievable outcome, but that's just my gut. Do you have any projections as to how likely a 2-seed is with our remaining schedule? I'm curious as to what your confidence level is.

I'm sure his confidence coincides with how confident one can be that Marquette only loses 6ish or less BE games, including the BET.

24-7, 15-5 pre BET with a loss in the Garden should still be good enough for a 2 seed, or right on that 2/3 line.

26-5, 17-3 or better should include a BE Championship and a 1 seed.

The margins are razor thin, but I think too many people get too caught up in the numbers, Q1 wins, metrics, etc etc too early in the game.
These things usually play themselves out, and if Marquette can win 15ish BE games they will likely land on the 2 line. Win a BE Championship with 17 wins or more than more than likely land on the 1 line.

Anything worse than that and 3-5 seed territory. Would take a big meltdown/fade to fall beyond that

[K1 Lover]

I'm sure his confidence coincides with how confident one can be that Marquette only loses 6ish or less BE games, including the BET.

24-7, 15-5 pre BET with a loss in the Garden should still be good enough for a 2 seed, or right on that 2/3 line.

26-5, 17-3 or better should include a BE Championship and a 1 seed.

The margins are razor thin, but I think too many people get too caught up in the numbers, Q1 wins, metrics, etc etc too early in the game.
These things usually play themselves out, and if Marquette can win 15ish BE games they will likely land on the 2 line. Win a BE Championship with 17 wins or more than more than likely land on the 1 line.

Anything worse than that and 3-5 seed territory. Would take a big meltdown/fade to fall beyond that

Well said. Thanks for the response!

[brewcity77]

Like you said, I think Marquette is unlikely to get a 1-seed.

As for the 2-seed, however... it seems like a very realistic and achievable outcome, but that's just my gut. Do you have any projections as to how likely a 2-seed is with our remaining schedule? I'm curious as to what your confidence level is.

I'm a little less bullish than Doc. Considering that Iowa State, Duke, and the SEC Champ (likely Auburn) are all in very strong position to earn a 1-seed, there's really only one 1-seed left to compete for. With our predictives lagging behind our resume metrics, I would go with the following pre-BET scenarios:

1-seed: 27-4 to 29-2

No high-major with 4 or fewer losses has been anywhere but the 1-line in the NET era. The one caveat, if we come in with 4 losses (so 18-2 in BE play) we need to at least make the Big East title game to feel safe. Might need to win that as well.

2-seed: 25-6 or 26-5

This is the most likely outcome. This assumes either 16-4 or 17-3 in the league. One problem is the metric strength of the SEC will have their second place team in really good shape, so if we aren't a clear 1-seed, I think we end up a 2-seed. If this has a league title and we win the BET, maybe we get there with 5 losses, but I'd guess not.

3-seed: 24-7 or worse

Even with a Big East title, if we are 15-5 or worse, it means our metrics are likely worse than they are now. We're already only in contention for a 2-seed because of our resume, and losing more than we're expected to from now until Selection Sunday would not only drop our predictives but also the resume metrics that are propping us up.

[K1 Lover]

I'm a little less bullish than Doc. Considering that Iowa State, Duke, and the SEC Champ (likely Auburn) are all in very strong position to earn a 1-seed, there's really only one 1-seed left to compete for. With our predictives lagging behind our resume metrics, I would go with the following pre-BET scenarios:

1-seed: 27-4 to 29-2

No high-major with 4 or fewer losses has been anywhere but the 1-line in the NET era. The one caveat, if we come in with 4 losses (so 18-2 in BE play) we need to at least make the Big East title game to feel safe. Might need to win that as well.

2-seed: 25-6 or 26-5

This is the most likely outcome. This assumes either 16-4 or 17-3 in the league. One problem is the metric strength of the SEC will have their second place team in really good shape, so if we aren't a clear 1-seed, I think we end up a 2-seed. If this has a league title and we win the BET, maybe we get there with 5 losses, but I'd guess not.

3-seed: 24-7 or worse

Even with a Big East title, if we are 15-5 or worse, it means our metrics are likely worse than they are now. We're already only in contention for a 2-seed because of our resume, and losing more than we're expected to from now until Selection Sunday would not only drop our predictives but also the resume metrics that are propping us up.

Makes sense to me. I'll definitely be returning to this as a point of reference, though I'm sure I won't truly feel confident about our seeding until the end of the BE tournament... And I'm sure most fans will be the same.

Thanks for the insight!

[DoctorV]

Thanks Brew.

26-5, 17-3 with a BE Title under the belt and not getting a 1 seed would stink, but I guess they could just go win the BET to try to get that 1 seed.

Reading that makes me realize that a 2 seed, which Marquette has seemingly held for quite a while, is going to be pretty hard to hold onto.

As always, great spot to be in that's for sure