How many rotational players will leave MU this offseason?

[Tyler COLEk]

There's a lot of debate on the Scoop—the preeminent online forum for knowledgeable and respectful debate—about who's staying and who's going on this roster. Time to make those positions public so you can be exposed to ridicule if you end up being wrong!

We're talking about rotational players for this poll. That includes:
Tyler Kolek
Kam Jones
Oso Ighodaro
Stevie Mitchell
Oliver-Maxence Prosper
David Joplin
Chase Ross
Sean Jones
Ben Gold

Of the above group, how many leave the program this offseason? Do not factor in Emarion Ellis or Keeyan Itejere into your poll response. We know those two are more likely to leave.

[Tyler COLEk]

I chose one, but admit that's optimistic. If I were taking bets, I'd set the over/under at 1.5. Wrote this in a different thread, but here's how I project things moving forward (including Ellis and Itejere):

Almost certainly staying (99%)
Tyler Kolek
Stevie Mitchell
Chase Ross

All of these guys feel like foundational pieces who are very comfortable with their projected role moving forward. No real risk of any of them jumping to pro ball. Hard to see how any would benefit from a move to another program, though maybe you could argue Ross wants to go be the immediate alpha elsewhere.

Very likely to stay (90%)
Oso Ighodaro
Kam Jones

Oso could test pro waters, but I think NIL incentives will put him close to what he would make professionally. Feels like he also has an unusually high chance of improving his draft stock with another year in college after opening eyes this season. I can't imagine Kam would take a step down in competition for an (even) bigger role and he doesn't have much by the way of professional prospects at this point.

Probably staying (75%)
Olivier Maxence-Prosper
Ben Gold
Sean Jones
David Joplin

I think if Prosper and Gold could make the same NIL money as Americans they'd be in the group above. OMax could immediately make six figures playing overseas but has a real chance to improve his draft stock if he stays another year. Gold is a bit of a wildcard, but like everyone else seems to love his teammates and Shaka. His earning prospects don't seem great at this point and my instinct is that he's pegged for a big role next year.

I think Shaka has strong belief in Sean Jones and vice versa. Jones already flashed quite a bit defensively, and I think has a path for considerable improvement offensively, even at his size. He just feels like a key Shaka guy, but maybe there's risk he'll want a bigger role elsewhere his sophomore year.

I debated putting Joplin in the group above because he seems very comfortable with Shaka and Marquette. That said, I think he probably wants a bigger, starting role by next year. If Omax and Oso both return, I could see him moving on to another program. If one leaves, I think Jop is definitely staying.

Coin flip (50%)
Emarion Ellis

By all accounts Ellis loves Shaka and his teammates. That rehab leg press video was a thing of beauty. Usually in this kind of situation this player is definitely gone, but there was enough preseason hype about his role and evidence he loves this team to give Ellis a real chance of returning.

Probably leaving (25%)
Keeyan Itejere

It's hard to see a path forward for Itejere unless Oso or a couple other big men move on. He needs minutes for his development, and would optimistically be an 8-12 min/game guy next year.

[lurch91]

I don't think any of them leave.  Shaka has talked about how this team was the most connected team he's had.  I think that is a huge influence on them all staying together.

I could be wrong, but like most I see Ellis and possibly Itejere as the most likely to depart, not anyone from the team's core.  I hope they all feel that they have something left to prove.

[nyg]

"The Kam to Memphis conspiracy is hot" ?  Really?, it was mentioned twice in this thread as what ifs. At least you stated it was a reach.

Unless I hear any potential rumors from notable sports people outside this board, nothing is "hot" or has anything in the realm of a conspiracy. Will know more in the following week as players meet with coaching staff, other teams coaching changes and players want to get in the portal.  This will be a busy transaction week in all college basketball and always has been. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

"The Kam to Memphis conspiracy is hot" ?  Really?, it was mentioned twice in this thread as what ifs. At least you stated it was a reach.

Unless I hear any potential rumors from notable sports people outside this board, nothing is "hot" or has anything in the realm of a conspiracy. Will know more in the following week as players meet with coaching staff, other teams coaching changes and players want to get in the portal.  This will be a busy transaction week in all college basketball and always has been.

Nm.

[bilsu]

I chose one, but admit that's optimistic. If I were taking bets, I'd set the over/under at 1.5. Wrote this in a different thread, but here's how I project things moving forward (including Ellis and Itejere):

I choose one and I thought i was being pessimistic.

[Tyler COLEk]

I choose one and I thought i was being pessimistic.

Maybe I've been infected by Scoop Pessimism™️! Would be incredible for the entire cast to return.