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27-10

Duane Wilson has some thoughts on Buzz

Started by TSmith34, Inc., January 12, 2022, 09:44:17 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

jesmu84

Quote from: GOO on January 15, 2022, 08:09:18 AM
I'm always open to being wrong, and I am aware of a lot of our and my biases and our poor ability to judge risk. I am very aware of the decrease in crime over long term visitors and for decades, etc.

Did you read the articles you posted. Unless you are specifically limiting and talking about property crimes, and cheery picking while ignoring the crime most are concerned with - violent crime-  they contradict your statement  that disputes what I posted. 

Here is a quote from the first article you posted:

"There was no crime wave—there was a tsunami of lethal violence, and that's it," Philip Cook, a crime expert at Duke University, wrote to me in an email.

The murder rate rose by nearly 30 percent, the largest increase on record. There were about 21,500 murders, or 6.5 per 100,000 people. Aggravated assault, the most common form of violent crime, rose 12 percent. Among other components of the violent-crime rate, robbery actually decreased and rape reports were flat. But property crimes overall fell 8 percent, led by drops in burglary and larceny—though motor-vehicle theft increased."

I could have made a better post, however. Maybe I should have limited my statement on crime increases to violent crime or to be more exact, car jackings which is mainly what I was thinking about and referenced in my link. But I did not properly convey my thoughts in my post.  The posts above mine were referencing cars being stolen and car jackings

All good. Just trying to set the record straight when people say crime is increasing. It really isn't. Violent crime - specifically murder - is increasing. And the majority of that is related to gang activity.

I suppose we could discuss the best way to lower crime - improving economic conditions - but it would get divisive quickly.

GOO

Thanks for that.

And I am also aware of the disconnect between declining crime rates for decades and centuries and millenniums and what people think it true.  But people who watch a lot of news think crime is way up not just the recent blip I am talking about.  Hopefully a blip. Probably a lot of confirmation bias comes into play then. Plus recency bias, exposure etc.

I'll risk that this doesn't turn political. I don't see it as politician:

But we could easily lower crime. Proven elsewhere. But it is a long term process. But the payback after about 18 years is 9 to 1. Results in lower incarceration by 50%, increase in IQ scores for lower income kids by about 13 points, over 50% increase in high school graduation rates, and similar in college grad rates, etc.

How: 3k and 4K. High quality day care. Yes, governments need to pay for it to make it work. That is why it won't happen in the US.  We generally think short term not long term.  If you really want to boost it, stability in housing has similar paybacks.

LloydsLegs

Quote from: GOO on January 15, 2022, 09:59:12 AM

How: 3k and 4K. High quality day care. Yes, governments need to pay for it to make it work. That is why it won't happen in the US.  We generally think short term not long term.  If you really want to boost it, stability in housing has similar paybacks.

👏 👏 👏 👏

Galway Eagle

Quote from: GOO on January 15, 2022, 09:59:12 AM

How: 3k and 4K. High quality day care. Yes, governments need to pay for it to make it work. That is why it won't happen in the US.  We generally think short term not long term.  If you really want to boost it, stability in housing has similar paybacks.

Well you have my vote.

Maigh Eo for Sam

Billy Hoyle

My wife was a victim of a crime at work last night. Theft. However, because it's so bad out here establishments like hers are told not to stop the perpetrators and not to bother reporting. It's mainly the homeless doing it. This woman did have a bat with her. It's out of control but police are understaffed and the homeless have more rights than taxpayers so they go unreported. Break ins at night of businesses are also out of control but again, unreported. At my employer we've had 10 catalytic converters stolen since the summer and now holes being drilled in gas tanks to steal gas. No reason to report those.

So yes, there is a crime wave, but stats won't show it.
"You either smoke or you get smoked. And you got smoked."

DoctorV

Quote from: Billy Hoyle on January 15, 2022, 01:57:44 PM
My wife was a victim of a crime at work last night. Theft. However, because it's so bad out here establishments like hers are told not to stop the perpetrators and not to bother reporting. It's mainly the homeless doing it. This woman did have a bat with her. It's out of control but police are understaffed and the homeless have more rights than taxpayers so they go unreported. Break ins at night of businesses are also out of control but again, unreported. At my employer we've had 10 catalytic converters stolen since the summer and now holes being drilled in gas tanks to steal gas. No reason to report those.

So yes, there is a crime wave, but stats won't show it.

That sucks but the Marquette win doesn't, amirite?

Billy Hoyle

Quote from: DoctorV on January 15, 2022, 01:59:46 PM
That sucks but the Marquette win doesn't, amirite?

It does, but she's still a little shaken up. Angry she wasn't allowed to do anything but thankful she didn't suffer any injuries.

Oh, you can barely get propane tanks out here. Major target for theft by the campers.
"You either smoke or you get smoked. And you got smoked."

jesmu84

Quote from: Billy Hoyle on January 15, 2022, 01:57:44 PM
My wife was a victim of a crime at work last night. Theft. However, because it's so bad out here establishments like hers are told not to stop the perpetrators and not to bother reporting. It's mainly the homeless doing it. This woman did have a bat with her. It's out of control but police are understaffed and the homeless have more rights than taxpayers so they go unreported. Break ins at night of businesses are also out of control but again, unreported. At my employer we've had 10 catalytic converters stolen since the summer and now holes being drilled in gas tanks to steal gas. No reason to report those.

So yes, there is a crime wave, but stats won't show it.

Businesses have made it policy for employees to not stop theft for years. Nothing new there.

Businesses not reporting crimes is their own dumb fault.

No reason? You must understand that resources/staffing is decided by crime stats. So, that's dumb to not report crime.

Billy Hoyle

Quote from: jesmu84 on January 15, 2022, 02:04:05 PM
Businesses have made it policy for employees to not stop theft for years. Nothing new there.

Businesses not reporting crimes is their own dumb fault.

No reason? You must understand that resources/staffing is decided by crime stats. So, that's dumb to not report crime.

If you report a crime by a certain type of perpetrator you can expect a visit from local "organizations" and a boycott.

But go on sticking up for criminals.
"You either smoke or you get smoked. And you got smoked."

The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole

Quote from: Billy Hoyle on January 15, 2022, 01:57:44 PM
My wife was a victim of a crime at work last night. Theft. However, because it's so bad out here establishments like hers are told not to stop the perpetrators and not to bother reporting. It's mainly the homeless doing it. This woman did have a bat with her. It's out of control but police are understaffed and the homeless have more rights than taxpayers so they go unreported. Break ins at night of businesses are also out of control but again, unreported. At my employer we've had 10 catalytic converters stolen since the summer and now holes being drilled in gas tanks to steal gas. No reason to report those.

So yes, there is a crime wave, but stats won't show it.


Things used to happen to Cheek's wife that used to strangely correlate with what was being discussed on Scoop.

Weird huh?
Matthew 25:40: Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.

Skatastrophy

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on January 15, 2022, 06:45:34 PM

Things used to happen to Cheek's wife that used to strangely correlate with what was being discussed on Scoop.

Weird huh?

But he's trying so hard not to be racist, you have to give him credit right?

TSmith34, Inc.

Quote from: Billy Hoyle on January 15, 2022, 01:57:44 PM
My wife was a victim of a crime at work last night. Theft. However, because it's so bad out here establishments like hers are told not to stop the perpetrators and not to bother reporting. It's mainly the homeless doing it. This woman did have a bat with her. It's out of control but police are understaffed and the homeless have more rights than taxpayers so they go unreported. Break ins at night of businesses are also out of control but again, unreported. At my employer we've had 10 catalytic converters stolen since the summer and now holes being drilled in gas tanks to steal gas. No reason to report those.

So yes, there is a crime wave, but stats won't show it.
Gosh Jr, your wife sure does have a lot of bad luck
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

jesmu84

Quote from: Billy Hoyle on January 15, 2022, 06:39:17 PM
If you report a crime by a certain type of perpetrator you can expect a visit from local "organizations" and a boycott.

But go on sticking up for criminals.

I reported a crime when someone stole a security camera from my home a couple years ago. I received no visits, boycotts or cancels. So...?

How in the world am I sticking up for criminals? I just said all crimes should be reported.

Jeez man. You sure do say some wacky things.

TSmith34, Inc.

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on January 15, 2022, 06:45:34 PM

Things used to happen to Cheek's wife that used to strangely correlate with what was being discussed on Scoop.

Weird huh?
Uncanny
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.