Opp 3P FG%

[1SE]

Great to get the W last night, but another hot opp 3P FG% night.

Sample is getting larger - Conference opps shoot 7% better against us than season average. Not quite a statistically significant difference, but would be (by far) without the G-town game.

Luck or scheme? Folks have pointed out on other thread how we are late to close the 3pt line, etc. Is this by design? Do we get something in return for that (better 2P defense? More rebounds)?

Something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

            MU       Season

Prov     47.4      32.8
UCONN  50.0     35.5
Gtown   20.8      35.4
Nova     39.4      37.5
Xavier   54.2       35.4
SH        42.9       33.1
Crei      43.8       38.8     

[Dr. Blackheart]

MU Opponent Fg% (YAG):
At rim: 48.8% (54.2%)
2FG Jumpers (not at rim): 38.3% (35.4%)
Outside the arc: 35.1% (32.2%)

Opp eFg%, seconds into shot clock (YAG):
After a Steal, 0-10: 63.8% (55.7%)
After a Steal, 11-30: 67.6% (50.0%)

Garcia, Lewis and Theo good at protecting the paint versus last year. As the defense extends out, MU broken down either on dribble or passing as they are often very slow on rotations or close outs, often on switches.

Turning it over by steal is a killer (steals were 75% of MU turnovers last night even though only 8 total vs. 47% for season).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Luck or scheme?     

As of two games ago, it was both. Andrei posted a chart after the Georgetown game that showed that we were allowing around 3 extra unguarded three pointers a game than the Big East average. Obviously, unguarded 3s are going to be more effective than guarded threes so that is the scheme part of things.

The chart also showed that we have been the victims of some bad luck this season. Whether the 3 is guarded or unguarded, the opponent still needs to hit the shot. The chart showed that our PPP allowed on both guarded and unguarded 3s was significantly higher than the Big East average, meaning opponents were hitting their threes more often against us regardless of if they were guarded or unguarded. That is mostly the luck part of things, though some of it could be about who we are leaving open which I would need to do a deep dive on to find out. IIRC, the difference between our PPP allowed on 3s and the Big East average allowed on 3s was worth between 4-5 points a game, which is not insignificant.

Eye test-wise, we allow too many open threes for sure and we have seen some crazy shots go in against us. The Nichols corner 3 last night and the Kunkel game winner were two of the most improbable shots I have ever seen.

[MarquetteDano]

The chart showed that our PPP allowed on both guarded and unguarded 3s was significantly higher than the Big East average, meaning opponents were hitting their threes more often against us regardless of if they were guarded or unguarded. That is mostly the luck part of things, though some of it could be about who we are leaving open which I would need to do a deep dive on to find out. IIRC, the difference between our PPP allowed on 3s and the Big East average allowed on 3s was worth between 4-5 points a game, which is not insignificant.

I also think when you give opponent open 3's more than other teams the shooter's confidence goes up leading to a higher chance they hit a guarded three.  Let's face it,  our three point defense is poor.

[MU82]

As of two games ago, it was both. Andrei posted a chart after the Georgetown game that showed that we were allowing around 3 extra unguarded three pointers a game than the Big East average. Obviously, unguarded 3s are going to be more effective than guarded threes so that is the scheme part of things.

The chart also showed that we have been the victims of some bad luck this season. Whether the 3 is guarded or unguarded, the opponent still needs to hit the shot. The chart showed that our PPP allowed on both guarded and unguarded 3s was significantly higher than the Big East average, meaning opponents were hitting their threes more often against us regardless of if they were guarded or unguarded. That is mostly the luck part of things, though some of it could be about who we are leaving open which I would need to do a deep dive on to find out. IIRC, the difference between our PPP allowed on 3s and the Big East average allowed on 3s was worth between 4-5 points a game, which is not insignificant.

Eye test-wise, we allow too many open threes for sure and we have seen some crazy shots go in against us. The Nichols corner 3 last night and the Kunkel game winner were two of the most improbable shots I have ever seen.

Right on, TAMU.

That shot by Nichols ... c'mon. I was muttering about it for 10 minutes. Obviously, Kunkel -- in X's four games since that ridiculous shot against us, he is 1-for-15 from behind the arc.

That being said, way too many open 3s. PU hit their fair share last night, but we were also lucky that a few open looks didn't go in.

The combination of us giving up too many easy 3s and us missing too many open 3s isn't a good one.