[Cracked Sidewalks] Really Big East: 2020 NCAA Mock Bracket

[brewcity77]

Big East? More like Biggest East. 9 Big East teams make the latest Cracked Sidewalks field:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/12/really-big-east-2020-ncaa-mock-bracket.html

[Elonsmusk]

Nice work Brew.

Agree this is a down year in college hoop.  Much as I'd like to see 9 from the Big East, just don't think that will happen from an optics/political standpoint.  Currently Big East ranks 3rd in Pomeroy in conference ratings.  Suspect we will get 6 or 7.

Also, Creighton as a projected 5 seed currently?  What makes you so bullish on Creighton? 

MU is hard to project, but I see them earning a higher seed than Creighton.  I'd guess MU gets a 7 or 8 seed.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Big East is 2nd in T-Rank.

http://www.barttorvik.com/trank.php?year=2020&sort=&lastx=0&hteam=&t2value=&conlimit=All&state=All&conyes=1&begin=20191101&end=20200501&top=0&quad=5&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0#

[brewcity77]

What pushes Creighton up is overall body of work. Right now, resumes get poor in a hurry, but their two losses are NET #1 San Diego State on a neutral and at Michigan, neither of which are damaging. They also have two Q1 wins (MU has none), a Q2 win, and it doesn't hurt that their two Q3 wins are against teams that are currently in the field (13-seed LA Tech & 15-seed Oral Roberts).

I think 6 is a lock. Since the league reconfiguration, at least 6 teams have had a 9-9 or better record and most teams in the league would have a good case at 9-9. SHU, SJU, & Providence are the only teams that might need 10+ wins to get in & some teams would be comfortable at 8-10 (Butler & Nova for sure).

The only way we see 9 is if there's mass parity, like last year but with one team a clear bottom (say a 3-15 Providence). 7-8 feels most likely, and I'm hoping for 8 because it would break that 1991 record.

[Dr. Blackheart]

One metric where the Big East leads in Torvik is Wins Above Bubble. Definition is below, but the BE is a +7.7...which is a big lead over other conferences. This supports the idea of a high bid year for the BE...at least to date.

For example, the B1G is only a +0.3 despite being #1 in KPom and T-Rank. This suggests the B1G has a bunch of good and bad teams, but with less parity.

http://www.barttorvik.com/trank.php?sort=34&begin=20191101&end=20200501&conlimit=All&top=0&hteam=&conyes=1&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0&quad=5&rpi=#

Can you explain WAB? I read the definition and then i see the higher number get greener. If a bubble quality team would win more games against the team's schedule, why would that be a good thing?
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Bart TorvikFebruary 12, 2018 at 11:40 AM
The WAB number isn't how many games a bubble team would win against that team's schedule, it's how many MORE (or fewer) games a team has won against its schedule than a bubble-quality team would be expected to win. So say a team has a schedule that a bubble quality team would be expected to go 10-10 against. If the team is actually 15-5, that's a WAB of +5.0. If they were 5-15, the team's WAB would be -5.0. If they are 10-10, it's par, 0.

[brewcity77]

There are a ton of teams this year that are in that "are they any good" category who we usually expect to be good. Virginia, UNC, Kentucky, and Purdue are the ones I mention, but I'm also not sure how good Michigan State or Arizona, who have great kenpom numbers but little resume beef, or teams with gaudy records against weak schedules like Auburn and Indiana really are.

It's still super early in the season, but WAB is significant because looking specifically at the Big 10, how good are some of their elite teams? Squads like Michigan State, Purdue, and Maryland all started top-20 in kenpom and are still top-15, but how much of that is old or projected data? Ultimately, it comes down to results, and no league has better results in non-con play than the Big East.

[Benny B]

One metric where the Big East leads in Torvik is Wins Above Bubble. Definition is below, but the BE is a +7.7...which is a big lead over other conferences. This supports the idea of a high bid year for the BE...at least to date.

Are those wins above a soft bubble, or just a regular bubble?

[Dr. Blackheart]

Are those wins above a soft bubble, or just a regular bubble?

Silent verbal bubble